Dov Waxman - Lecture January 15, 2020

Transcript

Thank You Carol for that warm welcome. Hello

everybody - it's a really a great honor

for me to be standing here before you is

the new holder of the

Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation Chair in Israel Studies. Before i begin my talk this

evening i think it's important to just

to say a few thank-yous. First of all I

want to thank Carol personally for

chairing the search committee and for

allaying many of my concerns and

anxieties throughout the hiring process.

And I also want to thank the other

members of the search committee as well

as Dean Darnell Hunt for hiring me.

Hopefully they won't regret that

decision. And I'd also like to thank The Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation

for endowing a chair in Israel studies

at UCLA. It's a great honor for me to be

the holder of this chair and I'm really

delighted to be a member of what is the

best public university in this country

if not indeed in the world and also to

be joining such a vibrant intellectual

community here at UCLA. As chair of

Israel studies at UCLA and as the

director of Nazarian Center for Israel

Studies, I just want to briefly elaborate

on what I think of as my central

missions here on campus and beyond first

of all as with any professor any chair

my first mission is in the classroom to

teach UCLA students about Israel and to

mentor them in their own academic

pursuits

regarding Israel; second like any faculty

member my mission is to conduct my own

research and writing on Israel and to

disseminate that research to a wide

audience. but as the chair of Israel

studies in particular as director of the

Nazarian Center I also believe I have

wider, border responsibilities. to promote

the academic study of Israel at UCLA;

to promote the field of Israel studies,

which is an academic subject; should be

understood as such; and to ensure that

Israel studies which is already

flourishing at UCLA (thanks to the

efforts of my predecessor Yorum Cohen)... to

ensure that Israel studies at UCLA

continues to flourish and expand. Beyond

that I also see my role as helping to

foster a civil, inclusive and nuanced

conversation around Israel on this

campus and indeed beyond. At a time when

we're all well aware of the polarization

and acrimony that often afflicts

conversations about Israel on campus and

beyond, I think it's particularly

important for a chair of Israel studies

to try to do their part to foster a more

inclusive and more civil conversation

around Israel. And finally I see my

mission as serving as a resource for the

wider LA community - again in order to

help promote greater public

understanding and knowledge about Israel.

And the Nazarian Center has already been

doing this for some time, and I look

forward to continuing to expand the

Nazarian Center's activities in the

community. And that will mean not only as

many of you have done today - and I'm very

grateful for that coming to campus - but

also bringing the Nazarian Center into

the community and visiting your

places to speak with you and to promote

greater understanding about Israel. So it

is a long list and admittedly a somewhat

daunting undertaking but I am excited to

take on this challenge. And with the help

of the Nazarian Center's wonderful staff

and the Faculty and Community Advisory boards,

and with your help - with all of your help -

I'm confident that we can make UCLA not

just a world-class center for Israel

studies which it should be but also a

model for how sometimes difficult,

challenging conversations about Israel

can take place. And we need to model that kind

of conversation here on campus and show

how that can be done not just on college

campuses but ultimately also in society

at large. So with that introduction out

of the way let me now turn to the topic

of my talk this evening the religion

ization of the Israeli-Palestinian

conflict. As you heard from my

introduction from Carol, I've spent a lot

of time teaching and writing about the

Israeli-Palestinian conflict; in fact I

was somewhat alarmed in the introduction

to realize how many of my books have

conflict in the title. I'd like to write

another book hopefully that didn't refer

to a conflict. But for better or for

worse that's unlikely to happen for for

a while. But as somebody who does write

and teach a lot about the

Israeli-Palestinian conflict in

particular I get to hear a lot of

misconceptions about this conflict. And I

think two of the most common

misconceptions that I've heard about the

conflict in the years that I've been

writing and teaching about it are: first

of all that it is an age-old conflict

that has been going on basically for

millennia; and secondly that is the

religious conflict between Jews and

Muslims. And these two popular beliefs

are often related. So many people think

the conflict has been going on for

thousands of years and therefore that it

must be a religious conflict. And many

people believe that because it's a

religious conflict it must be going on

for thousands of years. In reality,

however, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

is not ancient; it's not age-old; it's a

modern conflict beginning roughly a

century ago when inter-communal violence

between Jews and Arabs in Palestine

first started in the aftermath of the

First World War. Nor is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

simply a religious conflict as many

people assume it is. While it is true

that Israelis are mostly Jewish - not all

of course, 25% of Israel's citizens are

not Jewish. And Palestinians are mostly

Muslim, although not all. The

conflict between them is not over their

religious differences. In fact, Judaism

and Islam have a lot in common; and both

religions accept the validity of the

other as monotheistic faiths. Judaism is

non-proselytizing, does not expect to

hold people to convert to Judaism. And

while Islam holds

that everyone should convert to it, the

Quran and subsequent Islamic tradition

does describe Jews as quote people of

the book; and subsequent Islamic

tradition has afforded Jews the status of

dhimmi -

or protected people - under Muslim rule,

which was a lesser status than Muslims

the one that allowed use to practice

their religion, albeit with some

restrictions. In fact, historically as we

may well know Muslims have actually

generally been more tolerant of Jews

than Christians have. So it's wrong to

think then that the conflict is over

religion. But it's also wrong to think of

the conflict in purely secular terms as

simply a territorial conflict that can

be solved by drawing lines on a map and

partitioning territory. This is not just

a real estate dispute, as say Jared

Kushner seems to think it is. It's true

that at the most basic level the

Israeli-Palestinian conflict is rooted

in a dispute over land; over who lives on

it, owns it, and rules it. But the land at

stake is not just any old land but land

that has immense religious significance.

It is of course the Holy Land - the land

of the Bible, the birthplace of

Christianity and Judaism. And a place

that continues to hold immense religious

significance to Christians, Muslims and

Jews around the world; thus, although it's

not primarily a religious conflict but a

conflict over land, it does have a

religious dimension to it. This is of

course most apparent in the struggle to

control over Jerusalem, which is perhaps

the most contested place on earth and

the epicenter of the

Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Both sides claim Jerusalem as their

nation's capital. And the city has huge

symbolic significance for Palestinians

and Israelis, secular and religious alike.

While the conflict over Jerusalem is not

just driven by religion, a major reason

why Jerusalem is so contested is

undoubtedly due to the presence of some

of the most sacred sites to Judaism and

Islam in Jerusalem's Old City. In Jewish

history, Jerusalem was the location of

the first and second temples - the

successive centers of Jewish ritual for

approximately a thousand years and where

religious Jews believe the divine spirit

resides. The Romans destroyed the second

temple in the first century and all that

remains of it today is an outer wall

that Jews call the Western Wall -

the Kotel - which has become the holiest site

in Jerusalem in Judaism. Directly above

is what Jews call the Temple Mount and

Muslims call the Noble Sanctuary - the

Haram al-sharif,

which is the third holiest site in Islam.

It's where the Dome of the Rock and

the Al-Aqsa Mosque are located and is

the place from where, according to the

Quran, the Prophet Mohammed ascended to

heaven met Allah and received the

Islamic commandment to pray five times a

day. In fact,

Jerusalem was actually the first place

to which Muslims were instructed to face

during their prayers. Disputes over this

particular sacred site had fuelled

violence on numerous occasions

throughout the history of the conflict.

In 1929, the first large-scale violence

between Jews and Palestinians occurred

over a dispute about Jewish activities

at the Western Wall. And more recently

the Second Intifada erupted in the

September 2000 after Arial Sharon, then

head of Israel's Lukud Party (the

largest right-wing party in Israel)

visited the site - a visit which many

Palestinians saw as a demonstration of

Israeli ownership of the area that could

not go unanswered.

So disagreements over the

sovereignty of this contested site was

one of the main reasons for the failure

of the Oslo peace process in the 1990s

and it was really, by all accounts, the

hardest issue for both sides to

compromise over at the fateful Camp

David summit back in July 2000, which led

to the collapse of the Oslo peace

process. The question then is not whether

the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is

religious or secular; it is surely both.

But how important religion is to

perpetuating the conflict today. How much

does religion fan the flames of violence

between Israelis and Palestinians and to

what extent has religion become an

obstacle to the resolution of the

conflict? And those are the questions I

will address. Religion clearly has always

played alone in the conflict; but

historically, contrary to popular belief,

it was mostly a supporting or secondary

role. From the outset, the

conflict has been driven more by

ideology - Zionism and Palestinian

nationalism - than by theology. Both

nationalisms were motivated above all by

secular political aspirations especially

the desire for national

self-determination. Nevertheless, from the

beginning of the conflict that the

Zionist movement and the Palestinian

national movement selectively drew upon

religion in order to mobilize popular

support. And both Zionists and

Palestinian leaders repeatedly employed

religious concepts, language and symbols

in the service of the nationalist cause,

just as many other nationalist

leaders have done historically. Over the

past five decades, however, and I think a

seminal turning point in that regard was

the June 1967 Six-Day War between Israel

and Arab States.

Since that time the religious dimension

of the conflict has gradually become

more important over time, largely due to

the growing power of religious

nationalism on both sides. On the

Israeli side, religious nationalism has

principally taken the form of Messianic

religious Zionism, whose followers have

spearheaded the Jewish settler movement

in the West Bank which is territory that

Israel captured

in the 1967 war. On the Palestinian side,

the main exponent of religious

nationalism has been the Hamas movement,

which has for example ruled the Gaza

Strip for more than a decade now. On both

sides these religious nationalists have

been the most determined opponents of

efforts to make peace between Israel and

the Palestinians and they have succeeded

in derailing previous peace efforts,

most notably the Oslo peace process in

the 1990s. To this day they continue to

form the hard core of opposition to

peacemaking as I will discuss. Since they

can obstruct peace as they have done

before, I think it is critical that we

understand their perspectives and their

religious beliefs that motivate them and

take these religious beliefs seriously

rather than dismissing them as many

secular commentators are apt to do. So

let me begin with Messianic religious

Zionism. Very, very briefly because this

is a obviously a much bigger topic.

Briefly speaking, we can say that

Messianic religious Zionism derives

primarily from the teachings of Rabbi

Abraham Kook who is the first chief

rabbi of the Ashkenazi Jewish community

in British mandatory Palestine. Now Kook

was unusual in that unlike most Orthodox

Jews of his time who regarded

Zionism as a heretical movement that

defied the will of God by trying to end

Jewish exile from the Promise Land

before the arrival of the Messiah. Kook,

on the other hand, tried to reconcile

Zionism with Orthodox Judaism. And he

tried to justify the participation of

religious Jews like himself in the

Zionist project. To do this, Kook argued

that secular Zionists were unknowingly

carrying out God's will and that the

return of Jews to their homeland

represented the beginning of a process

of messianic redemption - the beginning of

the coming of the Messiah.

Now this idea in Kook's teachings

was somewhat esoteric for many years.

And the Messianic religious Zionism was

a marginal

movement in Israel until the 1967 war.

But Israel's seemingly miraculous victory

in that war in just six days - evoking

almost the biblical story of creation -

Israel's miraculous victory in that war

galvanized messianic religious Zionists

determined to ensure that they liberated

territories. Would forever remain in

Jewish possession; they quickly began

moving into them and establishing

settlements. I want to be clear: most

Jewish settlers have not been followers

of Messianic religious Zionism. But they

are the most ideologically committed and

determined settlers in the West Bank.

Messianic religious Zionists believed

that the West Bank - or Judea and

Samaria as they would call it - belongs to

the Jewish people for all eternity

basically because God gave it to them.

They interpret God's biblical covenants

with Abraham and Moses as giving the

Jewish people the inalienable right to

possess the entire land of Israel. So for

them living in the West Bank is not only

a means of ensuring permanent Jewish

control over the land, but is also - and

this is critical to understand - is also a

religious duty...since they see it as part

of the process of bringing about the

arrival of the Messiah. They believe

they're doing God's work. They also

believe that Jewish law prohibits

abandoning any part of biblical Israel,

the Land of Israel, that is under Jewish

control. And so they're staunchly opposed

to any kind of territorial withdraw

because they consider it to be a

violation of Jewish law. Moreover, since

they take the view that Jewish religious

law - Halakha - takes precedence over the

laws and decisions of the State of

Israel, Messianic religious Zionists

reject the Israeli government's right to

give up any part of the Land of Israel.

They consider government decisions to

evacuate Jewish settlements and withdrawal

from territory to be essentially

illegitimate and immoral. The most

fanatical among them, typically youth, now

reject the authority of the Israeli

state altogether. They comprise only a minority of the

approximately four hundred and thirty

thousand settlers living in the West

Bank; they make up no more than a third

of the settler population in the West

Bank. And they are even a smaller

minority of Israel's overall population.

And we should bear in mind that Jewish

settlers make up a mere four point five

percent of Israel's population. Messianic

religious Zionists despite their small

numbers are a formidable domestic

political force in Israel. They have a

network of schools, religious academies

and synagogues propagating their

ideology and promoting their views. They

dominate the leadership of

the Council of Jewish Settlements in

Judea and Samaria, the Yesha Council.

That's the main intermediary between the

settlers and the government. They have

their own political parties that have

become essential participants in all

ring-wing coalition governments in

Israel. And now they work in the upper

echelons of the state bureaucracy and

the military. So the influence of

Messianic religious Zionists in

Israeli politics and on governmental

decision-making

far exceeds their actual numbers. Nothing

I think better illustrates this

influence than the fact that an idea

that they had long championed Israeli

annexation of the West Bank, which was

once and for long period of time

considered beyond the pale in Israeli

politics. This idea has become increasingly mainstream. And now even

secular right-wing politicians like the

Prime Minister - like Prime Minister

Netanyahu - have now publicly embraced

this idea. The power of Messianic

religious Zionist in Israel is bolstered

by the financial and political support

they receive from white evangelical

Christian Zionists in the United States.

For instance, just to name give you one

piece of data: according to Israel's

Haaretz newspaper evangelical Christians

in the United States have donated

as much as 65 million dollars

over the past decade alone to Jewish

settlements in the West Bank. About a

quarter of American adults identify as

evangelical Christian; and the vast

majority of them -

not all but the vast majority - believe

that Israel's creation and the return of

Jews to Israel are fulfillments of

Biblical prophecy, indicating that that

we are getting closer to the second

coming of Jesus Christ. Evangelical

Christian Zionists also believe that

it's their religious duty to encourage

Jews to return to the Promise Land in

order to bring about the end of days - the

rapture as prophesized in the Bible's

Book of Revelation. And this belief,

called Restorationism, actually emerged

in the early nineteenth century - long

before in fact the emergence of Jewish

Zionism. So Christian Zionism actually

predates Jewish Zionism in that respect.

Christian Zionists regard the West Bank

as the biblical heartland that Jews must

possess before Jesus returns. Jewish

messianic religious Zionists in Israel

then have effectively forged an alliance

with Christian Messianic religious

Zionists in the United States. The

origins of this alliance actually date

back to the late 1970s when the

Christian Right first emerged in the

United States. And since then supporting

Israel has become one of the central

causes of the Christian Right. But it's

only in recent years - in particular since

Donald Trump became president after

winning 81% of the White Evangelical

vote in the last presidential election -

it's only recently that the Evangelical

Christian Zionists have exercised a

major influence on American policy

toward Israel and the

Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary

of State Mike Pompeo are both Evangelical

Christians. And the lobbying group

Christians United for Israel, or CUFI as

it's known by its acronym (which was

founded in 2006 by Texas mega church

pastor John Hagee), now enjoys greater

influence in the White House than a pack

AIPAC. AIPAC has around a hundred thousand

members; CUFI has more than 4 million

members, which is in fact more than half

of the entire population of American

Jews in the United States. Also by the

way tend to be more critical of

Israel than Evangelical Christians. CUFI

has played a decisive role in lobbying

the Trump administration to declare

Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and

John Hagee actually delivered the

benediction at the official ceremony

opening the US Embassy in Jerusalem in

May 2000. CUFI has also pushed the

Trump administration to recognize

Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights

and most recently to declare that

Israel's West Bank settlements don't

violate international law. Turning now to

the Palestinian side, religious

nationalism has come in the form of what

the French scholar Olivier Roy calls

Islamo-nationalism - a fusion of

nationalism with Islamism. A very

powerful fusion. This fusion of Islamism

and nationalism is clearly evident in

the ideology of the Islamic resistance

movement, better known by its acronym in

Arabic: Hamas. Hamas expounds an Islamist

nationalist perspective on the

Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Unlike its

rival the more secular Fatah party, which

typically depicts the conflict as one

between Palestinians and Zionists,

thereby drawing a distinction between

Jews and Zionists, Hamas has

traditionally made no such distinction.

Often betraying the conflict as one

between Jews and Muslims.

Its founding charter published in 1988

actually describes the

Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a

continuation of the struggle of the

Jews of Medina and Khaybar waged against

the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh

century Arabia to prevent the spread of

Islam. And it also depicts the conflict,

Hamas' founding charter, as part of a

broader religious war between Islam and

the West. Depicting Zionism as a part of

relentless imperialist campaign

waged by the West against Islam since

the time of the Crusades. And in fact in

anti-Semitic fashion, Hamas

also alleges that Jews control and

manipulate the West. A central tenant in

Hamas' ideology is the claim that all

of Palestine is holy.

According to Hamas, the sanctity... the

Islamic sanctity of Palestine is

based on its designation as a waqf, which is

basically an Islamic trust. Allegedly

this designation was made by the caliph

Umar in 638 when the Muslim army

conquered Palestine. But actually this is

a recent claim that was only made in

the 20th century

that Palestine is a waqf.

As a waqf, Palestine doesn't just belong to the

Palestinians but to the worldwide Muslim

community for all eternity.

And hence, no Palestinian party or leader

has the right to concede any part of

Palestine whether now or in the future.

This is the fundamental reason why Hamas

rejected the Oslo Accords and why it

continues to oppose territorial

compromise with Israel. And since Hamas

rejects the possibility of territorial

compromise with Israel, the only solution

to the conflict that it ultimately

proposes is the liberations ... the

complete liberation of Palestine to be

achieved by military jihad, which Hamas

concedes of as a defensive jihad in

response to what they regard as Zionist aggression.

Hamas' ultimate goal

therefore is the establishment of an

Islamic state, one in which Sharia is

implemented in all the territory of

historical Palestine. Now the liberation

of all of Palestine is really a distant

goal at best for Hamas. And Hamas accepts that it might take a long

time to achieve this objective just as

it took Muslims a long time to defeat

the Crusaders. In the meantime, Hamas is

willing to make short-term concessions

and compromises. For instance, while Hamas

staunchly opposes any formal recognition

of Israel, its leaders have repeatedly

expressed a willingness to accept what's

called a Hudna or a long-term truce

with Israel for a specific period of

time. They've even more recently

indicated they may be prepared to accept

a Palestinian state in just Gaza and the

West Bank with East Jerusalem as its

capital as part of what's called a

national consensus among Palestinians. And

this position was presented in a very

important policy document that Hamas

published in 2017 after years of internal

deliberations and debate. In fact, some

experts now argue... some experts on the

movement argue that Hamas is no longer

in practice committed to the creation of

an Islamic state in all of historical

Palestine; that really this is more the

kind of Utopian goal than an actual long

term objective. Whether or not Hamas has

really moderated its views, it's

undoubtedly become an important part of

Palestinian society and politics. There

are many reasons why Hamas has gained

support among Palestinians in the West

Bank and Gaza. But I think the biggest

reason - and the same reason for what...

the same reason why Islamist groups and

movements have gained popularity across

the Middle East, which is the failure of

secular nationalism. The failure of

secular political elites to

achieve people's aspirations. As has

happened elsewhere in the Middle East,

the Palestinian - the Fatah-led

Palestinian Authority is widely

perceived to be corrupt and incompetent;

and battle strategy of negotiating with

Israel is believed to have been a dismal

failure. So these are the reasons I think

why Hamas won the last popular elections

in Palestine when they were held back in

2006. That was the last time any kind of

democratic election was held among the...

for the Palestinian Authority. At that

time, Hamas had a reputation among

Palestinians for being more honest and

competent than Fatah; and one of the

reasons why had gained this reputation

was because they had long been providing

social services to Palestinians just

like the Muslim Brotherhood, which is

0:34:15.860,0:34:20.180

actually Hamas' parent organization.

It was initially - Hamas was initially

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the Palestinian branch of the Muslim

Brotherhood. Jjust like its its parent

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organization. Hamas runs an extensive

social services network with schools,

0:34:29.690,0:34:34.430

orphanages, healthcare clinics and soup

kitchens. And this social services

0:34:34.430,0:34:38.930

network has been made possible largely

due to the financial support from

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private donors in Saudi Arabia and other

oil-rich Gulf countries, and as well

0:34:44.270,0:34:47.780

from the clerical

regime in Iran, which has funded Hamas

0:34:47.780,0:34:53.270

and supplied its military wing with

weapons and training. It's worth noting

0:34:53.270,0:34:58.100

that the Islamic Republic of Iran's

long-standing support for Hamas as well

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as for the smaller group Palestinian

Islamic Jihad is driven at least in part

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by its belief that Israel has usurped

Muslim lands and by Iran's desire as a

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predominantly Shiite Muslim country to

bridge the sectarian divide between

0:35:14.270,0:35:22.250

Shiites and Sunnis and present itself

as a pan-Islamic power. Hamas is not only

0:35:22.250,0:35:27.800

of course a political movement and a

provider of social services, it is also a

0:35:27.800,0:35:32.180

military organizations; it's a hybrid

organization. Indeed, in Israel in the

0:35:32.180,0:35:34.640

West

Hamas is often regarded solely as a

0:35:34.640,0:35:38.030

terrorist group because it's been

responsible for many acts of terrorism

0:35:38.030,0:35:43.220

against Israeli civilians - all in the

name of Islam. It carried out hundreds of

0:35:43.220,0:35:48.790

suicide terror attacks against Israeli

civilians using Islam to justify them.

0:35:48.790,0:35:54.950

Although suicide is expressly forbidden

in Islam, Hamas justifies such attacks

0:35:54.950,0:35:59.780

by describing them as martyrdom

operations using the term Shaheed

0:35:59.780,0:36:04.070

martyr when referring to suicide

attackers. And it selectively draws upon

0:36:04.070,0:36:09.010

passages from the Quran to glorify

martyrdom. Praising it as an act of supreme

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religious devotion and one that will be

richly rewarded in the afterlife. The

0:36:13.970,0:36:18.920

belief that becoming a martyr is the

fulfillment of a religious command and

0:36:18.920,0:36:23.240

that they will go straight to heaven is

one that has inspired many Palestinians

0:36:23.240,0:36:27.230

to carry out violent attacks against

Israelis, although it's certainly not

0:36:27.230,0:36:32.210

been their only motivation. Palestinians

are not the only ones who have carried

0:36:32.210,0:36:37.460

out violence in the name of religion and

used or abused you might think...used or

0:36:37.460,0:36:42.110

abused religion in order to justify such

violence. Jewish individuals and groups

0:36:42.110,0:36:47.030

have also carried out and promoted

religiously motivated violence, albeit on

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a lesser scale. The worst instance of

such violence occurred when Baruch

0:36:51.380,0:36:56.930

Goldstein - a Jewish settler and a

follower of the late far-right rabbi who

0:36:56.930,0:37:02.269

was born in the United States, Meir Kahane - massacred 29 Palestinians while they

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prayed in the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron.

And in recent years radical settlers

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have frequently attacked Palestinian

civilians and their property as part of

0:37:11.269,0:37:15.799

what's called a price tag strategy aimed

at deterring Israeli government actions

0:37:15.799,0:37:22.009

against settlements and outposts in the

West Bank. But by far the most notorious

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instance of religiously-motivated Jewish

violence was not against Palestinians

0:37:26.989,0:37:32.059

but against an Israeli Jew. Then-Prime

Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was

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assassinated in November 1995, by Yigal

Amir - a young messianic religious Zionist

0:37:37.940,0:37:42.369

who basically wanted to stop the Oslo

peace process. Rabin's assassination

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undoubtedly contributed to the eventual

failure of the peace process as it

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arguably deprived it of the only Israeli

leader who had the desire, determination

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and public support to successfully carry

out. And so sadly to a large extent,

0:37:58.789,0:38:05.569

Rabin's assassin succeeded in his

objective. Rabin's murder underscores

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the role that religious extremists have

played in derailing efforts to make

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peace between Israel and the

Palestinians. Religious extremists on

0:38:12.979,0:38:17.299

both sides have successfully played the

role of what political scientists call

0:38:17.299,0:38:22.430

spoilers. They continue to be the most

implacable opponents of peacemaking and

0:38:22.430,0:38:26.630

they are a major obstacle in the way of

a two-state solution to the conflict.

0:38:26.630,0:38:31.789

On both sides religious extremists

oppose a two-state solution because they

0:38:31.789,0:38:36.799

believe as I've mentioned that their

religion forbids them from ceding any

0:38:36.799,0:38:41.960

part of the land. But it's not just that

they believe that they oppose a

0:38:41.960,0:38:49.519

two-state solution. They also have the

ability to prevent one. In the unlikely -

0:38:49.519,0:38:53.809

admittedly unlikely event - that Israel

and the Palestinians are ever able to

0:38:53.809,0:38:58.039

reach a comprehensive peace agreement

involving the creation of a Palestinian

0:38:58.039,0:39:03.109

state alongside Israel, religious

extremists on both sides will almost

0:39:03.109,0:39:07.239

certainly attempt to obstruct the

implementation of a two-state solution...

0:39:07.239,0:39:12.990

most likely by any means

necessary. On the Israeli side the stiffest

0:39:12.990,0:39:16.619

resistance to a two-state solution is

likely to come from the minority of

0:39:16.619,0:39:21.300

settlers who live deep inside the West

Bank. The vast majority of Israeli

0:39:21.300,0:39:26.190

settlers are concentrated in large

blocks of settlements located near the

0:39:26.190,0:39:31.080

Green Line - Israel's de facto border

before the 1967 war. And a peace

0:39:31.080,0:39:36.210

agreement would probably allow Israel to

annex these large settlement blocks in

0:39:36.210,0:39:41.369

exchange for an equal amount of Israeli

land. For these settlers, the majority

0:39:41.369,0:39:45.510

would not have to move. In fact, most

would actually be willing to move if

0:39:45.510,0:39:51.900

they were financially compensated. But

the roughly 100,000 or so settlers who

0:39:51.900,0:39:56.520

live in smaller more remote settlements

and so-called outposts in the heart of

0:39:56.520,0:40:01.470

the West Bank, they're the ones who will

most likely have to be relocated in the

0:40:01.470,0:40:05.900

event of a peace agreement. And these

settlers will oppose any effort to

0:40:05.900,0:40:11.490

relocate them. And some will resist

perhaps violently attempts to evacuate

0:40:11.490,0:40:17.220

them. This potential... the potential for

violent resistance has previously

0:40:17.220,0:40:21.720

intimidated Israeli government's from

acting against settlers and it could

0:40:21.720,0:40:26.540

well deter a future government from

forcibly relocating them if need be.

0:40:26.540,0:40:31.200

Compounding this threat is the question

of what Israeli soldiers - a growing

0:40:31.200,0:40:36.150

proportion of whom are themselves

religious Zionists especially in the

0:40:36.150,0:40:41.310

Army's combat units and positions of

command - what will they do if ordered to

0:40:41.310,0:40:46.140

forcefully removed masses of settlers

from the West Bank. Before Israel's

0:40:46.140,0:40:51.780

withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005

some extremist rabbis instructed Israeli

0:40:51.780,0:40:57.750

soldiers to refuse to comply with their

orders to evacuate settlers. Such calls

0:40:57.750,0:41:02.250

are bound to increase in the event of an

Israeli withdrawal from parts of the

0:41:02.250,0:41:06.660

West Bank - an area which has much more

religious significance to Jews than the

0:41:06.660,0:41:13.230

Gaza Strip. However slim the possibility

of a mutiny within the IDF cannot be

0:41:13.230,0:41:17.850

ruled out within the Israeli army cannot

be ruled out. So whether any future

0:41:17.850,0:41:22.470

Israeli government, even a center-left

one, would be willing to

0:41:22.470,0:41:33.150

to take such a risky operation is very

much in doubt. While Israel will have to

0:41:33.150,0:41:37.890

contend with the challenge of religious

extremists refusing to leave their

0:41:37.890,0:41:43.140

settlements deep inside the West Bank,

the Palestinians will face an even

0:41:43.140,0:41:47.250

greater challenge from religious

extremists, principally from the

0:41:47.250,0:41:52.680

hardliners within Hamas. It's not

necessary for Hamas to endorse a

0:41:52.680,0:41:56.849

two-state solution; in fact, there are

political parties in Israel most notably

0:41:56.849,0:42:00.630

the Likud Party which also has

officially opposed to a two-state

0:42:00.630,0:42:04.410

solution. So it's not necessarily for

Hamas to support a two-state solution

0:42:04.410,0:42:11.340

but it is essential for Hamas to abide

by one. What this means then is that will

0:42:11.340,0:42:16.410

Hamas try to obstruct the implementation

of a two-state solution? Its leadership

0:42:16.410,0:42:20.520

has said that the group will abide by

any peace agreement that Palestinians

0:42:20.520,0:42:26.130

endorse in a popular referendum, but they

want all Palestinians to participate in

0:42:26.130,0:42:30.390

this referendum, including ...they may be

five to six million or more in the

0:42:30.390,0:42:36.260

Diaspora. So this condition is almost

impossible to meet. Now Hamas is

0:42:36.260,0:42:42.210

responsive to Palestinian public opinion.

For instance, back in 1994 when the

0:42:42.210,0:42:47.040

Palestinian Authority was founded was

established as a result of the Oslo

0:42:47.040,0:42:51.900

Accords, Hamas accepted the authority of

the Palestinian Authority...accepted the

0:42:51.900,0:42:57.060

PA, because Palestinians at least back

then overwhelmingly supported it. So

0:42:57.060,0:43:01.830

Hamas is responsive to Palestinian

opinion.But there is a limit to how far

0:43:01.830,0:43:07.020

Hamas will defer to any Palestinian

popular consensus supporting a peace

0:43:07.020,0:43:11.580

agreement with Israel. If a peace

agreement, for example, required Hamas to

0:43:11.580,0:43:15.960

dissolve its military wing and give up

its weapons - and Israel I think will

0:43:15.960,0:43:21.330

surely insist on this, because allowing

Hamas to keep its weapons will pose too

0:43:21.330,0:43:25.830

much of a threat to Israel. Then it's

almost certain that Hamas will refuse

0:43:25.830,0:43:31.440

this. Hamas' leadership has stated on many occasions and in

0:43:31.440,0:43:35.970

unequivocal terms that the group will

never disarm. And even

0:43:35.970,0:43:39.150

more moderate...even if it's more moderate

leaders - and it has moderate more

0:43:39.150,0:43:42.810

moderate leaders and more hard-line

leaders...even if its more moderate

0:43:42.810,0:43:47.790

leaders were perhaps open to some kind of

disarmament and to some circumstances,

0:43:47.790,0:43:53.010

they would balk I think from doing so

simply because of the risk this

0:43:53.010,0:43:58.080

would create a schism within Hamas and

lead to the emergence of more radical

0:43:58.080,0:44:02.640

splinter groups...because of the

opposition within the movement to

0:44:02.640,0:44:08.880

disarmament. So I think Hamas is unlikely

to agree to disarm and I very much doubt

0:44:08.880,0:44:14.940

the Palestinian Authority will be strong

enough to forcefully disarm Hamas. Let's

0:44:14.940,0:44:19.560

not forget the Hamas fighters routed the

American-trained Palestinian Authority

0:44:19.560,0:44:24.359

security forces in a brief mini civil

war that occurred in 2007 - so-called

0:44:24.359,0:44:28.859

Battle of Gaza. And since then, Hamas'

military wing has only grown bigger,

0:44:28.859,0:44:33.869

stronger and more battle-hardened...thanks

in part to a succession of mini-wars

0:44:33.869,0:44:39.510

with Israel.

So the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is

0:44:39.510,0:44:44.130

not a religious conflict, but religion

has profoundly affected the conflict. And

0:44:44.130,0:44:48.150

especially in recent decades, this

religious dimension as I've argued has

0:44:48.150,0:44:53.609

become more salient. Any proposed

solution then that relies upon some kind

0:44:53.609,0:44:58.349

of territorial compromise is going to be

challenged by this. And while the

0:44:58.349,0:45:03.270

conflict drags on, I think the religious

role in the conflict is likely to grow

0:45:03.270,0:45:10.920

even greater. Because as I've noted, the

role of outside group actors motivated

0:45:10.920,0:45:14.369

at least in part by their religious

beliefs - Christian Evangelicals in the

0:45:14.369,0:45:19.349

United States, for instance, and Iran's

clerical regime. But also because of the

0:45:19.349,0:45:24.210

religionization or the growing role of

religion in both Israeli and Palestinian

0:45:24.210,0:45:30.839

societies. If what I called the religionization of the conflict continues, then

0:45:30.839,0:45:36.480

sadly the already slim chances for peace

will be further reduced. Because I think

0:45:36.480,0:45:41.970

the more the conflict becomes religious,

or the more religion plays a

0:45:41.970,0:45:45.900

role in the conflict, the harder it

becomes to make compromises and

0:45:45.900,0:45:49.280

concessions because God's wishes can't

easily be contradicted.

0:45:49.280,0:45:54.350

In short, the more religion

drives the conflict the harder it

0:45:54.350,0:45:58.970

becomes to solve. Now I might end there and leave you thoroughly depressed. And you

0:45:58.970,0:46:04.100

might think that religion should be

marginalized as much as possible in this

0:46:04.100,0:46:07.730

in order to promote peace between

Israelis and Palestinians. But I actually

0:46:07.730,0:46:13.310

draw the opposite conclusion. I think

that you must address the religious

0:46:13.310,0:46:17.450

dimension of this conflict; and

addressing the religious dimension of

0:46:17.450,0:46:22.280

the conflict has to be part of any

effort to resolve the conflict or even

0:46:22.280,0:46:26.990

just to mitigate the conflict and pave

the way for peaceful coexistence. Rather

0:46:26.990,0:46:33.410

than marginalizing religion, peacemaking

should include religion. The experience

0:46:33.410,0:46:38.450

of the Oslo peace process is highly

instructive in that regard. The Oslo

0:46:38.450,0:46:44.360

peace process failed in part because it

lacked religious legitimacy for many

0:46:44.360,0:46:49.970

devout Israeli Jews and Palestinian

Muslims. On both sides it was seen as a

0:46:49.970,0:46:56.270

secular initiative pursued by secular

leaders and based solely upon secular

0:46:56.270,0:47:03.080

values. On the Israeli side, Rabin and Peres

- the primary initiators of the

0:47:03.080,0:47:06.920

peace process - were seen that secularists

who failed to grasp the importance of

0:47:06.920,0:47:11.420

the Land of Israel to the Jewish people.

And on the Palestinian side, the PLO

0:47:11.420,0:47:15.080

leadership were perceived as secular

nationalists who didn't sufficiently

0:47:15.080,0:47:21.230

respect Islam. So in many ways the fierce

domestic debate within both societies

0:47:21.230,0:47:25.640

over the Oslo peace process was the

debate that pitted its secularist

0:47:25.640,0:47:30.920

supporters against its religious

opponents. And the survey data

0:47:30.920,0:47:35.270

demonstrate clearly that it was secular

Israelis and Palestinians who

0:47:35.270,0:47:39.470

consistently expressed more support for

the peace process than those who

0:47:39.470,0:47:44.840

identified themselves as religious. So

the failure of the Oslo peace process I

0:47:44.840,0:47:50.960

think demonstrates that peacemaking that

ignores or marginalizes widespread

0:47:50.960,0:47:54.980

religious sentiments is doomed to fail.

Peacemaking

0:47:54.980,0:47:59.420

cannot be perceived as a secular

enterprise, the sole province of secular

0:47:59.420,0:48:03.819

leaders and guided by secular values.

If it's seen in this way, religious

0:48:03.819,0:48:09.549

believers on both sides will feel

excluded, alienated, marginalized and

0:48:09.549,0:48:14.470

threatened by it; hence, they will not

support it and some may even try to stop

0:48:14.470,0:48:19.869

it. So to avoid this, future peacemaking

efforts must take into account the

0:48:19.869,0:48:24.579

religious feelings and beliefs that many

Israelis and Palestinians have and they

0:48:24.579,0:48:29.500

must try to give some religious

legitimacy to peacemaking. More

0:48:29.500,0:48:33.880

specifically, religious public's need to

be actively engaged; religious values

0:48:33.880,0:48:38.440

need to be frequently invoked to

legitimize peacemaking; and moderate

0:48:38.440,0:48:41.710

religious leaders should be included in

peacemaking.

0:48:41.710,0:48:46.299

I think moderate Jewish and Islamic

religious leaders have a very important

0:48:46.299,0:48:51.250

role to play in this regard. By providing

a religious justification for

0:48:51.250,0:48:55.690

peacemaking, they can help mobilize

popular support among religious Jews and

0:48:55.690,0:49:00.369

Palestinians for a peace agreement. And

their participation in peace efforts can

0:49:00.369,0:49:05.380

help legitimize any future agreement in

the minds of religious believers, or at

0:49:05.380,0:49:10.450

least soften religious opposition to it.

More generally, moderate religious

0:49:10.450,0:49:15.930

leaders on both sides can help to

counter religious extremism by offering

0:49:15.930,0:49:20.710

alternative religious commentaries and

different interpretations of religious

0:49:20.710,0:49:26.619

sources from that of extremist rabbis

and Imams. Now I don't think that this

0:49:26.619,0:49:30.579

will sway the religious extremists; we

shouldn't be under any illusions about

0:49:30.579,0:49:35.559

that. But I think these efforts can

influence the border religious public,

0:49:35.559,0:49:40.299

and in this way religion can actually

help promote peaceful coexistence

0:49:40.299,0:49:45.640

between Israelis and Palestinians

rather than continued conflict and

0:49:45.640,0:49:51.639

violence. Thank you.

0:49:57.240,0:50:06.480

I believe we have about 15 minutes I'm

happy to answer questions and please if

0:50:06.480,0:50:09.840

possible try to because I'm sure there

will be a quite a few questions so

0:50:09.840,0:50:16.260

please try to ask questions rather than

long statements and limit yourselves if

0:50:16.260,0:50:21.600

possible to a single question where

should we begin there's I think there's

0:50:21.600,0:51:01.080

a microphone going around so there's a

lot of discussion about whether other

0:51:01.080,0:51:06.900

external actors can now help promote or

even forge a peace agreement between

0:51:06.900,0:51:14.130

Israel and the Palestinians given the

Palestinian refusal to engage with the

0:51:14.130,0:51:17.900

Trump administration and the widespread

view that the United States has really

0:51:17.900,0:51:24.570

given up its role as or its monopoly as

the main broker of a peace agreement

0:51:24.570,0:51:28.920

between Israel and the Palestinians so

there's this growing debate and

0:51:28.920,0:51:33.300

discussion about well can there be

another external broker and given Iran's

0:51:33.300,0:51:37.980

growing in Russia's also Iran's growing

influence but Russia's growing influence

0:51:37.980,0:51:42.210

in the region can Russia fulfil take on

that well personally I'm skeptical of

0:51:42.210,0:51:49.740

that certainly Russia has positive

relations with both the Palestinians the

0:51:49.740,0:51:53.280

Palestinian Authority and and has

relations with Hamas as well diplomatic

0:51:53.280,0:51:57.240

relations from US as well as with Israel

and let's not forget that Israel has a

0:51:57.240,0:52:03.420

large community more than a million of

Israelis from the former Soviet Union so

0:52:03.420,0:52:08.820

we won Russia does have some ability to

speak to both sides in a way that

0:52:08.820,0:52:14.670

sadly the United States does not have

that ability today nevertheless I don't

0:52:14.670,0:52:20.670

see Russia is able to replace the role

that the United States has played as the

0:52:20.670,0:52:26.640

main mediator largely because the

Israelis if any if the Israelis will be

0:52:26.640,0:52:32.730

required to make any major concessions

in for a peace agreement they will need

0:52:32.730,0:52:37.590

the United States to both support and

encourage those concessions I don't

0:52:37.590,0:52:42.360

think the Israelis will be willing nor

should they really in my opinion be

0:52:42.360,0:52:45.930

willing to trust Russia with that and

they can't necessarily ensure their

0:52:45.930,0:52:53.430

security through an alliance with Russia

so I don't see Russia playing that well

0:52:53.430,0:52:57.000

nor for that matter do I think the EU

the European Union is capable of doing

0:52:57.000,0:53:01.110

that so unfortunately one of the reasons

there are many reasons and this is a

0:53:01.110,0:53:06.530

subject for another lecture one of the

reasons why the peace process that

0:53:06.530,0:53:13.710

really began back in Madrid in 1991

continued in fits and starts since then

0:53:13.710,0:53:18.720

one of the reasons why I and many other

observers are so pessimistic about its

0:53:18.720,0:53:23.310

resumption and really believe in many

ways it's dead is because the United

0:53:23.310,0:53:29.910

States has to a large extent abdicated

its role as the essential mediator in

0:53:29.910,0:53:37.860

that and on both sides both Israeli Jews

and Palestinians have really given up

0:53:37.860,0:53:44.400

hope in the peace process so there

really isn't any public demand on either

0:53:44.400,0:53:50.370

side for a resumption of peace talks nor

is there any expectation understandably

0:53:50.370,0:53:54.240

so that even if peace talks were to

assume they would succeed in the peace

0:53:54.240,0:53:56.750

agreement

0:54:38.140,0:54:44.390

so I would push back against the premise

that the United States or other

0:54:44.390,0:54:50.209

countries are enjoying better relations

with Sunni with Sunni Muslims or Sunni

0:54:50.209,0:54:55.299

countries in the region than we're sure

I mean let's not forget Islamic state

0:54:55.299,0:55:02.150

and al-qaeda are both Sunni groups so

there's a lot of issues with the sillies

0:55:02.150,0:55:09.670

and Sunni groups but I think as I

mentioned one of the reasons for Iran's

0:55:09.670,0:55:15.079

growing involvement in the

israeli-palestinian competent through

0:55:15.079,0:55:20.749

its long-standing support for Sunni

Islamist groups Sunni Islamist groups

0:55:20.749,0:55:28.309

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad is

Iran's desire to overcome this certainly

0:55:28.309,0:55:33.170

sheer sectarian divide and present

itself as a pan-islamic part Iran's bid

0:55:33.170,0:55:39.170

for regional hegemony is stymied by the

fact that it is predominantly Shia

0:55:39.170,0:55:45.559

country and therefore perceived as such

by Sunni Muslims across the region and

0:55:45.559,0:55:51.680

therefore Perron by portraying itself as

the defender of all Muslims and by

0:55:51.680,0:55:58.969

supporting despite this religious divide

Sunni Islamist groups that ideologically

0:55:58.969,0:56:06.199

at least regard sheer as heretical Iran

is in fact I think trying to overcome

0:56:06.199,0:56:10.940

this this particular finish year divided

and more broadly though and this isn't

0:56:10.940,0:56:14.289

something I can spend much time talking

on but I would urge you if you

0:56:14.289,0:56:18.489

to come tomorrow well I will be talking

about us and the United States in there

0:56:18.489,0:56:23.109

on a side from the israeli-palestinian

conflict and aside from Israel's

0:56:23.109,0:56:27.009

conflict with the Palestinians for

Israel at least a far greater concern

0:56:27.009,0:56:31.660

than its conflict with the Palestinians

is what Israel perceives as the

0:56:31.660,0:56:37.869

extension of a Shia axis or Shia

Crescent stretching from Iran through

0:56:37.869,0:56:43.900

Iraq in Syria and into Lebanon and in

other words we're seeing and this has

0:56:43.900,0:56:48.609

really been happening for some time now

a kind of shadow war playing out between

0:56:48.609,0:56:54.249

Israel and Iran as Israel is basically

trying or has been trying for some time

0:56:54.249,0:57:01.959

to prevent the extension of Iran's power

power westward and in particular the

0:57:01.959,0:57:11.349

arming and training and fortification of

sheer proxy sheer groups in places like

0:57:11.349,0:57:18.369

Syria and Lebanon and Iraq so certainly

this that calm that the expansion of

0:57:18.369,0:57:23.619

what Israel sees is kind of this sheer

Iranian sheer influence through Shiite

0:57:23.619,0:57:31.959

groups in Iraq Syria and Lebanon is

affecting the israeli-palestinian

0:57:31.959,0:57:36.759

conflict in that in to some extent

because Israel's attention strategically

0:57:36.759,0:57:42.039

is focused elsewhere Israeli strategic

thinkers although many Israeli strategic

0:57:42.039,0:57:46.869

a military official certainly those who

are retired would argue that failing to

0:57:46.869,0:57:50.619

the resulting israeli-palestinian

conflict is an existential issue for

0:57:50.619,0:57:54.880

Israel and that this is a major issue

that needs urgent attention

0:57:54.880,0:57:59.140

nevertheless the Israeli government on

Israeli policy makers are far more

0:57:59.140,0:58:06.069

preoccupied with countering the

expansion of this sheer Crescent or

0:58:06.069,0:58:11.640

sheer axis than trying to resolve the

israeli-palestinian conflict

0:58:14.360,0:58:22.870

very positive outlook for the conflict

between Palestinians and he's really so

0:58:22.870,0:58:28.370

what do you think the best case would be

or would happen to be things that have

0:58:28.370,0:58:33.460

in the next 50 years 50 years

0:58:33.600,0:58:38.880

I'm not as I mean contrary to I mean I

know unfortunately whenever I talk on

0:58:38.880,0:58:43.560

the subject I managed to depress people

and sound very very pessimistic on the

0:58:43.560,0:58:49.800

other hand my when I frequently visit

Israel and the West Bank what I see

0:58:49.800,0:58:55.320

which doesn't receive much attention

overseas and is barely known is in fact

0:58:55.320,0:59:00.690

ongoing efforts on the ground to promote

reconciliation and greater understanding

0:59:00.690,0:59:04.710

and empathy between Israelis and

Palestinians work that's generally done

0:59:04.710,0:59:10.220

with very little funding a very little

external awareness by grassroots

0:59:10.220,0:59:18.290

activists in Israel and in the West Bank

and East Jerusalem to overcome the deep

0:59:18.290,0:59:23.040

psychological divide that separates

these two societies when I see those

0:59:23.040,0:59:26.670

activists and I see these kinds of

activities bumber almost of

0:59:26.670,0:59:32.430

non-governmental organizations I'm

actually moderately optimistic insofar

0:59:32.430,0:59:38.040

as I believe that it is possible to

ultimately bring about a reconciliation

0:59:38.040,0:59:43.590

between both societies I don't believe

that Israelis and Palestinians are will

0:59:43.590,0:59:49.680

are fated to be forever enemies I don't

think that it's impossible to find a way

0:59:49.680,0:59:54.020

for them to live together despite their

very passion national narratives and

0:59:54.020,0:59:59.730

beliefs and I think actually there is

under the surface we've been both

0:59:59.730,1:00:06.750

societies a desire actually for peaceful

coexistence and understanding where I'm

1:00:06.750,1:00:11.400

pasa mystic about is much more about the

kind of top-down peacemaking as opposed

1:00:11.400,1:00:15.150

to but I've been describing is bottom-up

peace building

1:00:15.150,1:00:22.530

top-down peacemaking the the you know

government leaders politicians sitting

1:00:22.530,1:00:26.430

in a room and trying to resolve every

issue with a stroke of a pen

1:00:26.430,1:00:32.220

I think that's unfortunately at least in

the near term doomed to failure

1:00:32.220,1:00:38.460

but I think peace building as a preet is

a precondition for successful peacemaker

1:00:38.460,1:00:43.260

so what I would like to see and in fact

I think is happening but needs much more

1:00:43.260,1:00:46.630

support and also should receive our

attention because they can

1:00:46.630,1:00:51.549

become the pessimism that many of us

have is in fact recognition that if we

1:00:51.549,1:00:54.970

do one piece and I believe peace is

possible and not but I don't believe

1:00:54.970,1:00:59.410

that the conflict will go on forever but

like any conflict it will end it had a

1:00:59.410,1:01:02.769

beginning and it hadn't and therefore

will happen anything there any questions

1:01:02.769,1:01:08.170

whether the ending will be massively

violent and cataclysmic or peaceful but

1:01:08.170,1:01:11.710

in order to bring about what I hope will

be a peaceful ending I think we need to

1:01:11.710,1:01:17.049

do a lot more effort and investment in

this kind of bottom-up grassroots peace

1:01:17.049,1:01:23.049

building and that can ultimately produce

successful peacemaking and as you may

1:01:23.049,1:01:28.210

have already gathered I'm originally

from the UK and that means I grew up not

1:01:28.210,1:01:31.119

only with Israeli Palestinian confident

but also with the Northern Ireland

1:01:31.119,1:01:37.210

conflict and I remember and you know

remember thinking this was always this

1:01:37.210,1:01:41.319

also have was seen as a religious

conflict that was rooted in hundreds of

1:01:41.319,1:01:44.500

years of history Catholics and

Protestants could never live together

1:01:44.500,1:01:49.480

this conflict would always go on now

it's true that there's still tension

1:01:49.480,1:01:52.839

between both Catholic and Protestant

communities in Northern Ireland and I

1:01:52.839,1:01:56.950

don't want to you know paint some overly

rosy picture but the fact is they're not

1:01:56.950,1:02:02.940

killing each other in large numbers and

and so maybe we need to scale down our

1:02:02.940,1:02:07.359

net measure of success

I don't believe conflict is an

1:02:07.359,1:02:12.730

aberration conflict is a normal it's

normal in all sorts of societies the

1:02:12.730,1:02:16.779

question is whether that conflict is

violent or peaceful that conflict takes

1:02:16.779,1:02:22.150

place politically through politics or

take place through weapons so I think we

1:02:22.150,1:02:27.819

can transition away from violence or the

and and significantly reduce the level

1:02:27.819,1:02:32.380

of violence but I think it's a

longer-term project that one that can be

1:02:32.380,1:02:35.880

instantly resolved at the stroke repair

1:03:46.540,1:03:54.650

so let's distinguish between the society

at large and the leadership on in terms

1:03:54.650,1:03:59.120

of public opinion at large

I think there's ample survey data now

1:03:59.120,1:04:03.350

going back to decades to demonstrate a

willingness on the part of many

1:04:03.350,1:04:09.020

Palestinians to have a two-state

solution with Israel and to make peace

1:04:09.020,1:04:12.920

of it that willingness and that's

portrait proof two-state solution though

1:04:12.920,1:04:18.650

has declined over time for many reasons

part of them being the fact that

1:04:18.650,1:04:23.330

partisans have despaired in the

prospects of a successful peace process

1:04:23.330,1:04:27.860

and in the meantime seen much of their

territory whittled away by Israeli

1:04:27.860,1:04:31.370

settlement building and so they've

become increasingly despairing and

1:04:31.370,1:04:36.020

cynical I don't think we should read

that despair and sinners and cynicism

1:04:36.020,1:04:39.590

about the peace process and despair

about the prospects for peace as an

1:04:39.590,1:04:43.910

unwillingness to make peace I think in

fact in many ways one of the things

1:04:43.910,1:04:47.840

that's very striking as someone who

studies the conflict is the similarity

1:04:47.840,1:04:51.640

of Pope's

not the differences the similarity that

1:04:51.640,1:04:56.980

both Israelis and Palestinians today had

given up on peace because they believe

1:04:56.980,1:05:01.300

the other is unwilling to make peace

it's not that they don't want peace and

1:05:01.300,1:05:05.050

it's not that they're even I'm willing

to make compromises for it in fact

1:05:05.050,1:05:10.000

they when you when asked if the other

side did this would you be willing to

1:05:10.000,1:05:15.760

make compromises even over the question

of Jerusalem which I've indicated is

1:05:15.760,1:05:20.890

that perhaps the hardest issue to

resolve Moute both majorities on both

1:05:20.890,1:05:25.060

sides have indicated have expressed a

willingness to make make peace they just

1:05:25.060,1:05:29.560

don't believe the other side is willing

to do that similarly both sides both

1:05:29.560,1:05:35.980

societies are deeply affected deeply

traumatized societies both never

1:05:35.980,1:05:41.860

experienced historic traumas and more

recently in the case of the Second

1:05:41.860,1:05:45.640

Intifada the impact of violence on both

societies so we're talking about both

1:05:45.640,1:05:53.020

societies as being deeply traumatized as

now in deep despair about the prospects

1:05:53.020,1:05:57.580

of peace cynical about the peace process

that doesn't mean however that they

1:05:57.580,1:06:01.810

don't want peace or are are willing to

make compromises in order to achieve

1:06:01.810,1:06:05.800

that just like other people's want to

live at peace their Lee the leadership

1:06:05.800,1:06:10.630

is a different issue in the leadership

responds to public opinion and their

1:06:10.630,1:06:15.880

leadership on both sides I think has

proven themselves with maybe the most

1:06:15.880,1:06:19.150

notable exception of Yitzhak rah-rah

being and to a lesser extent the hood

1:06:19.150,1:06:24.250

block have proven themselves I'm willing

to take risks political risks to will to

1:06:24.250,1:06:27.940

achieve it I'm willing to really a

challenge public opinion rather they

1:06:27.940,1:06:31.390

tend to kind of follow public opinion

rather than try and take on a leadership

1:06:31.390,1:06:39.130

role I do think however that President

Abbas in the past no longer but in the

1:06:39.130,1:06:43.630

past that President Abbas actually was

an interlocutor that with whom Israel

1:06:43.630,1:06:48.130

could have made a peace agreement and in

fact it's not just my opinion this is

1:06:48.130,1:06:52.450

obviously the opinion of other Israelis

who believe that there was an

1:06:52.450,1:06:57.100

opportunity but for a variety of reasons

that window of opportunity closed I

1:06:57.100,1:07:01.330

don't think a bus today is in that is

willing to do that because now his

1:07:01.330,1:07:03.740

concern

we've insured it well stay simply

1:07:03.740,1:07:09.339

staying in power and his this expect the

back room for succession over him

1:07:09.339,1:07:15.619

weather and I think one of the one of

the concerns that I have at least for

1:07:15.619,1:07:22.309

the next few years is a basses in his

mid eighties in in poor health his days

1:07:22.309,1:07:27.140

in office are numbered clearly and he

has no designate clearly designated

1:07:27.140,1:07:32.480

successor there's likely to be a

succession battle and whoever emerges

1:07:32.480,1:07:37.760

from that succession battle as the

leader of the Palestinian Authority will

1:07:37.760,1:07:42.740

not have the kind of standing

domestically to make peace in the way

1:07:42.740,1:07:49.430

that Abbas had in the past and Arafat

certainly had and so there simply may

1:07:49.430,1:07:53.599

not be a Palestinian leader of

sufficient standing who can do that on

1:07:53.599,1:07:59.329

the Israeli side I'm also skeptical

whether a leader will emerge given the

1:07:59.329,1:08:04.730

fact that there is no political

incentive for an Israeli leader to do

1:08:04.730,1:08:10.309

that because there is really no domestic

pressure on in Israeli politics to

1:08:10.309,1:08:14.599

resume a peace of peace process for the

Palestine Israel is that have given up

1:08:14.599,1:08:20.660

on the prospects of peace had kind of

come to terms with what they see as

1:08:20.660,1:08:26.870

Israel's need to just manage the

conflict for the foreseeable future and

1:08:26.870,1:08:30.199

to some extent have learned Israelis

have for better or for worse learn to

1:08:30.199,1:08:35.779

live with it and and accept its costs

and as long as that remains the case

1:08:35.779,1:08:41.449

there won't be the kind of political

pressure on an Israeli leader to to make

1:08:41.449,1:08:45.469

the kinds of far reaching concessions

that I think will be necessary to

1:08:45.469,1:08:48.219

produce a peace agreement

1:09:57.010,1:10:02.870

and not quite clearly Ireland I'm not

quite clear on that so so just to answer

1:10:02.870,1:10:09.740

the first question as I was suggesting I

think we have to take seriously the the

1:10:09.740,1:10:14.990

extent of religious opposition to a

territorial compromise on both sides the

1:10:14.990,1:10:19.370

the RAC the fact that religious days is

this religious opposition to recognizing

1:10:19.370,1:10:23.960

Israel's existence on the Palestinian

side that exists us and said Hamas has

1:10:23.960,1:10:27.440

historically expressed that and there is

religious opposition among Israeli Jews

1:10:27.440,1:10:33.050

to allowing a Palestinian state to exist

or even to recognizing the Palestinians

1:10:33.050,1:10:38.630

as indigenous or an inhabitants of the

area so that they're I don't think we

1:10:38.630,1:10:43.940

should deny wish or deny the existence

of this religious opposition but I also

1:10:43.940,1:10:47.570

don't think we should accept it as a

fait accompli as nothing that can be

1:10:47.570,1:10:52.970

done I believe that through the

involvement as I was saying in my

1:10:52.970,1:10:56.630

conclusion through the involvement of

moderate religious leaders and these are

1:10:56.630,1:10:59.060

activities are

and then they just generally don't

1:10:59.060,1:11:03.560

receive the kind of attention that's

needed that in fact Palestinians devout

1:11:03.560,1:11:09.110

Palestinians as well as devout Israeli

Jews can understand their religious

1:11:09.110,1:11:13.639

texts and religious traditions in a way

that will promote coexistence that

1:11:13.639,1:11:17.480

doesn't mean necessarily complete

territorial compromises if you were to

1:11:17.480,1:11:23.719

ask me you know my my ID my

understanding of what would work would

1:11:23.719,1:11:30.320

would be one that would not impact force

Palestinian Muslims to a ban to give up

1:11:30.320,1:11:34.400

any ability to visit holy sites in

Israel or Israeli Jews to visit holy

1:11:34.400,1:11:39.199

sites in for example the West Bank I

think any peace agreement that involves

1:11:39.199,1:11:44.449

a kind of hard separation which would me

which would force the religious

1:11:44.449,1:11:48.650

believers on both sides to not have

access to their holy sites and to give

1:11:48.650,1:11:51.800

up land that they regard as I said as

holy and inviolable

1:11:51.800,1:11:56.900

that kind of a peace agreement is likely

to be challenged a peace agreement

1:11:56.900,1:12:03.290

however that make allows people on both

sides to visit their holy sites to pray

1:12:03.290,1:12:07.429

at their holy sites to make business

with each other to visit family and

1:12:07.429,1:12:11.600

friends and other places that kind of a

peace agreement one that allows for the

1:12:11.600,1:12:18.889

integrity of the homeland and not trying

to force it into division that I think

1:12:18.889,1:12:23.000

will actually be a long more sustainable

peace agreement because it does take

1:12:23.000,1:12:29.480

into account the real religious feelings

of Israeli Jews and Palestinians and I

1:12:29.480,1:12:34.070

just say as a final word in that there's

a broader message here which is that at

1:12:34.070,1:12:38.630

a time where religion more broadly seems

to be playing a growing role in

1:12:38.630,1:12:42.679

international affairs and in many

conflicts throughout many violent

1:12:42.679,1:12:47.060

conflicts around the world I think

whether it's scholars and I come from

1:12:47.060,1:12:50.960

international relations is a discipline

but also members of the public in

1:12:50.960,1:12:55.550

general politicians have to really

engage with religion not demonize

1:12:55.550,1:13:00.710

religious believers not dismissed

religious sentiments as artificial or

1:13:00.710,1:13:04.820

unreal but rather takes seriously

religion but that also doesn't mean

1:13:04.820,1:13:09.830

pairing simply that the religious

extremists have the right to define what

1:13:09.830,1:13:13.719

that religion is

or the right to define what that

1:13:13.719,1:13:18.610

religious text means and so I think we

have to take seriously religion but also

1:13:18.610,1:13:22.870

take seriously the ability to engage

with religious publics and religious

1:13:22.870,1:13:26.230

states in a way that is that doesn't

need to promote by it so we don't have

1:13:26.230,1:13:30.790

to kind of be despairing and believe

that religion is ways and will always

1:13:30.790,1:13:34.780

only be a source for conflicts and

violence in this world I think in fact

1:13:34.780,1:13:39.190

it can be a source for peace and

reconciliation as well and I say that as

1:13:39.190,1:13:48.200

somebody who is not personally religious