Neil Netanel (Moderator)

Panelists: Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, Eran Kaplan, Liron Lavi and Roy Peled

Neil Netanel: Welcome everyone to our panel discussion - Israeli Elections 2.0: Where is the Nation Headed? I'm Neil Netanel, I'm Professor at the Law School at UCLA. I'm a member of the Faculty Advisory Board of the Younes and Soraya Nazarian Center of Israel Studies at UCLA. I will be moderating the panel today. The Nazarian Center promotes the study of the history, culture and society of Israel as a modern Jewish and democratic state. It sponsors courses for students of all backgrounds, conducts innovative research and brings leading scholars - such as scholars who are with us today, policymakers and artists at UCLA for public programs and performances. We have a number of forthcoming outstanding events this year. Our next event on the flyer on the table outside. It is a book talk about Israel's Technology Economy: Origins and Impact. It's a book by David Rosenberg, who will be presenting the talk. Rosenberg is the economics editor and columnist Haartz (English Edition). That event will take place on Wednesday, November 6 at 430. Again, information will be on the website of the Center and also on the flyer outside. So I encourage you to attend that event as well.

Netanel: Alright, I'm delighted to welcome and introduce our panelists for today. I'm going to provide a brief, abbreviated biography for each one. I refer you to our website announcements for today's event for more information about their stellar academic records, teaching and publications. So I'm going to begin with Shaiel Ben-Ephraim. Shaiel is a Visiting Lecturer with the Nazarian Center for this fall. Eran Kaplan is the Rhoda and Richard Goldman Chair in Israel Studies at SFSU. Liron Lavi is a research fellow at the Nazarian Center for Israel Studies. Roy Peled is a professor at the Haim Striks School of Law, College of Management – Academic Studies in Israel, where he teaches administrative and constitutional law.

Netanel: To begin, Israel's election system is very different from that of the United States. So although some of you may know a great deal about Israel's election system and the current landscape of political parties in Israel, to make sure that we're all on the same page, I thought it would be helpful to begin with a brief, basic introduction to Israeli elections and the formation of a government in Israel, as well as to Israel's current leading political parties. So following the introduction we will then dive into our discussion of the current elections and where we stand - or where we might think we stand today. And following our panel discussion we'll then open it up to you for any questions that you may have of our panelists. So Roy is going to present this.

Roy Peled: So I will try to deliver a crash course on the Israeli election system and how it worked or used to work. It's laid out in the basic law which would be the equivalent for the Constitution with the articles dealing with elections saying most importantly for us that the Knesset shall be elected in proportional elections - meaning we don't have districts, we don't have one takes at all states. But the whole country is one unit and every party is represented by its proportional share among voters. When you go into the ballot in Israel this is what you face. So you only need to answer one question that that's a good side. Which party you want to represent you in Parliament You don't have the Californian booklet with a very interview. But you have to choose among I think we have here what 15 - 27....15-28 parties, which is the reason that there will be no winner at election night. So after you choose your party and everybody else does, the Central Election Committee counts the votes and each party receives its share of the Knesset's 120 seats, according to the number of votes it received. One important thing to remember is that there is a threshold. The threshold - and maybe that will come up in the discussion later - used to be very very low. Every party that had one percent of the votes which would amount to about 40,000 votes in these elections could be represented in the Knesset. That changed in recent years and was not a technical change; it was a hotly debated political change. The threshold was risen to 3.25 percent, meaning you need roughly 130,000 votes to get into the Knesset. The change had in the background the thought that that would leave some of the Arab parties that were smaller parties out of the Knesset. Things unfolded in a very different way but we leave that to the discussion. That is also the reason so all the parties...which is the vast majority of them 20 out of the 28...that did not pass the threshold don't count. So if you see for instance that Blue and White - the first party here - got 26% of the vote but they have a little more 27.5% of the seats. That's because... that's because you don't count those smaller parties. So at the end of the day what you have is a 7 or 8 parties that passed the threshold. The biggest the largest Blue and White here having 33 seats, Likud with 32 seats, the Arab party 13, and so forth. Once we have the map of the seats in the Knesset, we need to begin forming a government. It's the president's job to cast the duty of forming a government on one of the Knesset members. He has full discretion. The law does not limit his discretion in any way. He can technically, legally give the job to a new Knesset member nobody ever heard of from the backseats. Obviously that's not what happens. The custom I'd say almost the customary laws that he consults with all the leaders of the Knesset factions. Asks them who would you like to see forming a government and whoever has the most support among them is chosen by him to form a government. What happened since 2003 is that some of the parties don't recommend anyone. They say we're not part of the game, mostly the Arab parties. This changed now a bit. So that gives him more discretion this time more than ever. And we'll get to that because look at the outcomes of the elections. What you see here the parties in blue are those that are considered the right block, the right-wing bloc. Of course there was a big dramatic change there, which we will get to. The parties in black two parties are the Ultra-Orthodox bloc. In purple you have the center in blue and white. In red you have the Zionists Left Labor and Meretz. And then the Arab party in orange. So now the leaders of the major parties - in this case Likud in blue and white in the past Likud and Labor, Likud and Kadima - try to gain the support of the majority of Knesset members. If they have 61 supporters in some scenarios even less. But if they have 61 supporters, they can't form a government. They need the Knesset to show confidence in the government. Okay the Prime Minister is not elected. Netanyahu was never elected. And Gantz was never elected. Parties were elected and the parties that will manage to close a deal saying we parties x, y and z that together have the support of the majority of Knesset members, they form the government. What happened in this election, which is quite unprecedented - in both last elections - is that the bloc of the right-wing plus Ultra-Orthodox parties which in the last twenty years or so identify with the right, had 55 seats altogether. The bloc of the center-left and Arab parties, which is not exactly one block, has 57, and then you have one right-wing party led by a Victor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu which has eight seats and refused to join a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu after the first round. Again I won't go into the details I guess we'll discuss them, the reasons for that. Therefore Netanyahu could not form a government. If - and this again never happened ...this is the first time. If no member or the member of the Knesset that the president gave the job who cannot form a government, one of two things can happen. He can show up at the president's residence and say, his excellency I failed to form a government and then the president can give that job to someone else. Or what Netanyahu chose to do after the first round is to pass a law in the Knesset saying the Knesset term is over; were going for new elections. That was the first round. After the second round, again he managed to convince Rivlin that he has the better chances to form a government. He got the job to do so from President Rivlin. This time he came back and said, his excellency I failed to form a government and yesterday evening or this morning in California and in Pacific Daylight Time, Rivlin said ok I am now giving Benny Gantz the job to try and gather a coalition of Knesset members. Just the last word, unless there's something very and clear, you don't really have to have the support of 61 Knesset members. Again this used to be... it used to be common wisdom that you need the majority to have a government. But a lot of things are changing these days. Technically you need to have a regular majority. So basically if you have three supporters and the opposition has two, you can form a government with three Knesset members. There is talk so if some Knesset members abstain then you don't need 61. If you have 50 and you have 50 voting in favor of your government and 49 voting against it and 20-21 not participating, then you can have a government even with 50 Knesset members. To show non confidence in that government afterwards, you would need 61. So that that's a game-changer in a way that we may discuss later.

Netanel: Perhaps some people here don't read Hebrew and and just don't know what the parties are. Say a sentence or two about each party and also I think most everyone knows who Benny Gantz is but maybe maybe not.

Peled: Okay so yeah historically until again roughly 20 years ago, Israel had a clear right-wing bloc, left-wing bloc - and that became a much vaguer picture these days. There is the right wing led by the Likud Party, Menachem Begin's party, and in the past 15-20 years most of the time Benjamin Netanyahu's party. Likud is clearly the leader of the right-wing block and it has always had several satellite parties, smaller parties to the right of the Likud. Today there was one running that split into a few others. I'm not going through the details. And there was Lieberman, which as I said is very right-wing ideologically but is sort of a defect now politically. Not going along with Netanyahu. So that's one block - the right-wing bloc that has the Zionist right-wing parties, Likud and it's satellite parties. There are two Ultra-Orthodox parties. Their thing is to a) care for the interests of the Ultra-Orthodox population and b) try to 'Judaize' Israel in their terms of being Jewish - promote religious legislation. They used to be a potential for being part of a left-wing government or a right-wing government, but in the past 20 years or so they clearly identify with the right. Not to say that there is under no scenario will they join a left-wing party. So we have the right-wing Likud and satellites and we have the ultra Orthodox block. Then we have today not really a left block but a center or a large central party, Blue and White led by the former chief of staff of the IDF, Benny Gantz and two other former chiefs of staff of the IDF. So it's a very centrist, military-oriented party in its leadership although it's very diverse. It has media people and artists and everything. They represent the mainstream secular Zionists - mostly Jewish electorate. Going to the left of them you have Labor Party, traditionally of course the party that led Israel in its first 30 years and led the left-wing block today down to being a very small party of 6 members, so 5 percent of the votes. To their left, Meretz again in a bit of a different format these elections. So we have Center Blue and White and then Labour and Mertetz left. And you have the Arab Palestinian Israeli party called the Joint List. That is a creation in many ways of of .... Lieberman. When Lieberman as a right-wing ideologist - and I don't know how much I should say at this point - but not a big sympathizer with the Arab Israelis - tried to oust some of these parties from Parliament, he worked to raise the threshold assuming that there were four different Arab parties each with a smaller representation he thought that would be a way to kick them out of Parliament. They were wiser than that. They joined into one list which has Islamists and nationalists and communists together and that is the what is called today the Joint List that has representation of 13 members of parliament in this Knesset. Obviously they are never support the right. Their relationship with the Zionist left is complicated so we leave that for the panel.

Netanel: Alright thank you very much, Roy. I think we might as well start with a big question which is, what are the chances that Gantz will succeed in forming a government or will be back here in March with Israel Elections 3.0 And if so you know what possible configurations might work.

Eran Kaplan: Seems to be the prevailing sentiment but I would start and say I think there's greater interest in the Israeli elections here in this room, then there is Israel right now. No no I'm very serious about. I think there's overall fatigue in Israel. There is growing disinterest ...with regard to the political process and I think that most people simply gave up on the process and they don't follow along. And there's not really much anticipation. Okay so there'll be elections or not elections or whatever may come. So I think that's part of the equation. But I think the politicians are weary of a next round of elections. So I think they will try to do whatever they can to come up with a creative solution. And... but ultimately I think is we hinted the only way for Benny Gantz to create some kind - even a minority government that enjoys a temporary majority in the Knesset - is to include the Arab party in one way or another in those negotiations. Perhaps not part of an actual part of the government or the coalition but providing...abstaining from votes or supporting in tactical voting in order to create a government, because without that, the numbers aren't there. The right-wing bloc and right now they're committed to act as one box - all 55 members so far..have pledged their.

Netanel: What about that. Do you think any ...so Shas, which is one of the ultra-Orthodox parties in the past has been in governments together with Meretz even, the far left Zionist party - I think was under Rabin. You see any chance that Shas would break and join.

Eran Kaplan: I think the Shas of 2019 is very different from Shas of the 1990s. Aryeh Deri is the only constant. But the electorate of Shas has gone a radical transformation over those past 20 years. Since we're in LA, we can talk about television maybe so... If you all saw the show "Our Boys" on HBO. I think it tells us something fundamental about the new faces of the right-wing in Israel and I think that the traditional Shas supporters have gone way to the right as far as the overall political map in Israel. So I think it's a very different Shas. So I think Deri might be a politician who will try to figure something and make something work, but the rest of his party and his voters I don't think are quite there.

Shaiel Ben-Ephraim: So yeah so let me respectfully disagree a little bit with...with Eran. I think it's misleading to say there's apathy in Israel right now. Sure there's apathy because the process is ongoing. But the reason that there's a logjam is because people feel very strongly about the outcome. It's a little like Brexit. Yeah, everyone's tired of it but if they leave a lot of people would be upset...if they stay a lot of people will be upset. So if Netanyahu stays, a lot of people would be upset. If Gantz takes over a lot of people would be upset, and if there's a third election everyone will be upset. So I don't... So the outcome will upset people. So they are indifferent right now and the politicians are concerned about that. Now everything that Erun said about the math is true but there's a seismic event that everyone's waiting for - and that's whether or not Netanyahu will be indicted and whether he'll be indicted on counts of bribery or just on more minor counts. If it's more minor counts that's a major victory for Netanyahu and it might actually be game over for Gantz. But it's more likely he will be indicted with bribery; the question is when. Will that be in Gantz's period, will it be in the 21-day period. Either way, at that point this kind of wall that the right wing has where Netanyahu's negotiating for them which is a very unnatural structure to begin with will start to crumble. Everyone will start to...No one wants to get the reputation for being the person that killed Netanyahu but everyone wants to benefit from his political death. So people are gonna be waiting for that blow and see where the bricks start to crumble. If that doesn't happen, nothing will crumble. We're already seeing that a lot of the parties when Gantz is approaching them. We're saying, yeah we'll talk to you - not yet. We'll talk to you in a few days after you talk to Netanyahu. They're waiting to see what their options are and a lot of it depends on the on the bribery counts.

Netanel: And Gantz has until November 20th to form a government.

Ben-Ephraim: Yeah but even in the 21 day period it could go back to Gantz. Gantz could end up being prime minister. The 21-day period he could be the Member of Parliament too. So it's it's not like that's the only chance Gantz has. And even if Netanyahu isn't indicted for bribery, the 21 day period will be very good for Natanyahu. They could both make a comeback in that 21-day period.

Peled: I want to disagree respectfully with Shaiel. Maybe the most important question is the one Liron raised and Shaiel referred to and we should talk about that. The situation is extremely dangerous for Israeli democracy exactly because of the question of apathy. I agree with Shaiel's description but it may get much worse if we go to a third round of elections. That can be really dangerous in terms of how people look at democracy and how well it works and doesn't. First of all there is another scenario that until a few days ago..the most common one everything thought should help is a national unity government between Blue and White and Likud. Basically Blue and White wants that - much more than they want to go a minority government. And Likud mostly wants that. There is just one simple question - who will be prime minister. Gantz or Netanyahu? Or more accurately, who will go first because they all agree in such a scenario they will split the term. One of them will be prime minister for the first two years; the other will be for the second two years. Who will be first? Again it's historically quite clear in similar instances in the past that the leader of the bigger party, which is Gantz in this case, should go first. There is only a minor issue here that one of the candidates has a very very strong personal interest in going first because that's the only scenario that gives him immunity in case he is indicted. If you're a minister in the government and you're indicted you have to quit. If you're the prime minister you don't have to quit, which is the reason that Netanyahu will not give up. And it's quite amazing and here I'm less optimistic than Shaiel, the level of loyalty and obedience among the ranks of Likud and other right-wing parties. So it's different. Likud ....Netanyahu has total control of. There are 2, 3, 4 people that deep down would want to see him disappear. But most of the Likud Knesset members these days are real loyalists to Netanyahu. They'll take anything. They're like Mitch McConnell. Among the other ring-wing parties, they actually will be happy to get rid of Netanyahu. But here's it's just like Shaiel stated - he is so popular among their voters that they don't want to be accused of pushing him off the cliff. But if...if....if and there are no signs that will happen....but if somehow people in some of the Likud leaders..manage to..and this can only happen if they see the movers approaching their offices...and they come to Netanyahu and say listen, it's better if we stay in power as number two than let go first and then we're in the opposition. That would make everybody happier and that's the national ...government. If we go ..that's one path. Second path was presented that the minority government with the support of the Arabs. But for the math to work on that, we need to remind. You need the support of the Arab parties and Lieberman. Gantz, Labor, Meretz and the Arab parties brings you up to 57; you still need Lieberman to be willing to be part of this trick with the Arab parties.

Ben-Ephraim: Or abstain.

Peled: No but that's still being part of it by abstaining.

Netanel: I heard one suggestion that Lieberman and the Arab parties might both support from the outside.

Peled: But they are still cooperating. Now Lieberman hates Netanyahu so strongly and so deeply and Lieberman is accountable to no one because his voters never care what he does. It might happen. I won't rule it out. But it's not an easy thing. And then number 3 is another round of elections.

Liron Lavi: I think Lieberman is in a very critical point here where he needs to choose. Right now what he did in the last round when he was not willing to get into Netanyahu's government because of the ultra-Orthodox parties kind of put him into two places - a right-wing party and a secular party. And with this option of a minority party he might need to decide. If he is the right-wing party and kind of maintains the right-left dimension of Israeli politics, he can ..he won't support this kind of government. Not by abstaining and not I think by any other means because that would cost him a lot of voters in the next election. What he can do is to go full power on what he started and define himself as the secular party. And kind of tap into this dimension in Israeli politics, which I think that the Israeli public is ready. After so many years of stagnation in the peace process and with the Palestinians, Israeli politics and the Israeli public are ready to kind of realignment process...if Lieberman will go full power on this he will have more ground to support a different kind of government than what he has done so far.

Peled: Can I have just one sentence. It's important to also say if we go the path of a minority government, that means we avoided a third round of elections in 2019. But there will definitely be elections in 2020. A minority government will never survive for more than 7-8 months. There is a budget to be passed in March 2020. No way in the world - this I'm willing to bet dinner in the most expensive restaurant in LA with anyone here - that a budget will pass...for that you need a majority. That just means postponing the elections for 2020 which is still a big thing. If Gantz arrives at those elections as prime minister that has done a few things.

Netanel: and if we are to have elections in February I guess it would be. Any chances that the map will change significantly or I guess it depends on whether Netanyahu is indicted. Anyone?

Peled: If Netanyahu is indicted, than it's a whole new ballgame. because I think the last 10 years in many ways is open belt. He called elections when his personal issues or needs or political calculations demanded elections to be held. When he felt indictments were coming he called early elections. In a way the entire process was tied to him personally and his own needs and issues. So of course if he's out of the picture, than it's a whole new ballgame. But there's one really exciting thing happening. And again I'm bringing it back to the parties. For the first time in many many years, there's a very productive and interesting discussion about the place of Arabs in Israeli society. We can see just the events over the past 2 or 3 weeks in Arab towns and villages the demonstrations demanding that the state come in and enforce the law universally in Israel. And the overall sympathy that this garners throughout Israeli society. And leading up to the most recent elections, one of Netanyahu's close allies...published two op-eds - one in Haaretz and one in a right-wing publication - that basically said to Arab population we're basically friends. We're your partners. We always support you. The most budgets you've ever received have come from Likud governments. We should cooperate politically. And even Natanyahu tried to break up the joint list and manipulate them. So some of them might align with Likud on strategic votes. So I find this very interesting. And the Arab population in Israel is about 20%. It will akin to ruling out an entire section of the US population in all political calculation. So let's just assume as a hypothetical that we say African-Americans are not part of the franchise in this country. They vote but it doesn't matter because their representatives will not have a say. Then think about American politics in this scenario. So there are interesting changes. I think there are also interesting changes within the Arab community in Israel and among Arab populations about how they view their role in Israeli politics.

Netanel: Can you say something about that?

Kaplan: Yes. So over the past two decades or three decades, the Palestinian issue was top of the list of the Arab parties. They identify with the Palestinian cause and this was issue number one for them - the political issue. But many of the voters say we have other issues that we need to work about - crime, unemployment, education in our communities. You are politicians, you represent us. Please work for us. And so that's a very important development and politicians are hearing those calls. And many of the old guard of the our politicians are no longer in the Knesset. There's a new generation of younger politicians, and I think they're attuned to their voters. And so again these are changes that may take time. They may not be reflected in the immediate elections but in the overall view, I think that this is fact fascinating, very interesting.

Netanel: Anyone else?

Ben-Ephraim: Yeah I just saw a poll an hour before we gathered here on Channel 13 which said that the results of the next election will be identical to this election almost to the mandate. Torah Judaism we're gonna gain one and Shaus is gonna lose one and that was about it. The Arabs who had voted in the highest turnout that they've had in a very long time, according to this, would retain their exact strength. So that turnout would would remain. So there's no sense there of anyone being punished for there being a third election in that poll. But I think if it happened in reality, we might see anger by then that'll change things. But the real variable in the short term - not the long term which Eran was talking about - is of course Netanyahu. If Netanyahu is not there the Likud will probably be the biggest right-wing party but they'll be smaller than Blue and White and then Blue and White we'll be able to dismantle the right-wing wall. So yeah that's the major variable there. If Netanyahu again is not indicted there is not going to be an excuse for Blue and White and for Lieberman to boycott him anymore. So he will be able to form a coalition. So once again, the most important element is the legal question if there's going to be another election.

Netanel: Sounds like you're saying Netanyahu is not finished unless he's indicted for bribery.

Ben-Ephraim: Yes. absolutely.

Netanel: Every body agree with that?

Peled: Netanyahu will not be indicted in the coming ..It is true that if either government is formed or we go to a third round of elections, the decision on his indictment will be taken before the next round of elections. There is no reason though that he will resign as Likud leader if indicted during the campaign. So if he is indicated and we are in an election campaign, that will be a campaign..a vicious, horrible ..really I don't want to see it...a campaign against the legal system. Netanyahu will be the Dreyfus of 2019 or 2020. He believes he is. Shockingly a high rate of Israelis believe he is nowadays out for Dreyfus and that will be the focus of the elections. If he is out of the game, for that we would have him to be found guilty - then it's a whole different ball game. Everything is open, everything changes...If we go to elections with a decision on his indictment, it will be a very rough one.

Lavi: With all due respect to Netanyahu, another important factor is the Israeli public. And I think another factor in a third election is turnout. Cause what we say in 2019 is almost a representation crisis. Two times in 2019 Israelis went to the polls - and keep in mind turnout didn't drop in the second round. So twice Israelis went to the polls. Voted pretty much the same....Politicians..the representatives weren't able to deliver or translate this decision into a working government. If in the third time people won't turn out to the polls that might change considerably both the distribution depending on who will turn out and who won't. And the legitimacy of the results.

Netanel: Can we say something else about turnout? Because in the spring election there was low turnout among the Arab voters right? Whereas in the September election there was much higher turnout. But then there was lower turnout I think among right-wing votes. So the turnout overall was the same but who actually voted changed.

Lavi: It was a little bit higher.

Netanel: I know Blue and White made a big effort to turn out voting in Tel Aviv the center of their support. Were they successful in that?

Peled: But there's one caveat when we talk about turnout in Israel. So unlike the United States, we have registered voters. And once you've registered you can vote wherever you are on planet earth. In Israel, unless you work for the government, you have to be in the country to vote. And everybody is automatically registered to vote. So if you happen to be abroad, you're counted as someone who do not show up - even physically for other reasons. So in fact, the turnout is much much higher than the percentage that we see, because at any given moment there about 750,000 registered Israeli voters were outside the country. Most of them here in LA. But they count towards the percentage of non-voters of those who did not vote. So we have to take this into account. So also a question of who was where at the time the spring or early fall. How many Israelis were abroad. How many stayed in Israel. This also plays into the equation.

Kaplan: Israeli Jews generally go to vote on Election Day. It's what you do,. Very few ...don't go to vote. The Arab part of...the Arab electorate was very upset in the spring election with the Arab parties that broke down the joint list. And that...much of their lower turnout was protest against their own leadership and and the return of the joint list in the second round of elections gave a big boost. And also you have to say for Gantz's credit that unlike his number two, Yair Lapid, he showed much more respect and openness to integrating them in the power sharing game. Already before the elections and is still doing so after the election. So that is an important portion of the of the game. Among Arabs I know it is.

Lavi: Don't you think Israelis would feel. Third round of an election whether it would be because of Gantz wouldn't be able to form a government and will be a minority government. They will feel that is the only tool they have left to express their discontent with the political system and how it works.

Peled: I think something worse may happen - that that might be true. I think we have to avoid a third round elections almost under any circumstances, including...This is not my view as a citizen but as an academic...including allowing Netanyahu to go first as Prime Minister in one condition that he resigns if he is indicted. Because I fear very much a third round. I just think anything can happen. So what you're saying can happen I think because it will go with his indictment - and because frequent elections with no outcome give such a bad image of the democratic process, what you're saying might be true it might be worse that that an anti-democracy campaign will gain popularity. I think a third round of elections is.. it's just a message of a constitutional crisis that can lead to very dark places.

Netanel: Both Lieberman and Blue and White have made statements that they're looking for a liberal national unity government, which think is a code word for saying secular - right. So can you say something about. Liron you mentioned that earlier. What exactly does that mean. What would Lieberman hope to achieve if there's such a government and and how are there openings for that now where there might not have been ...which basically would bring together the right and left around the issue of secular versus religious or ultra-religious.

Lavi: Yeah so I think on the long term of altering the political dimension in Israel and might create surprising alliances between secular parties which are now on different parts of the spectrum...

Netanel: What's the platform for secular parties. Is it the draft, the requiring Ultra-Orthodox Jews to study basic English and math in their schools What's the platform. What will they hope to achieve.

Lavi: Ultra-Orthodox will serve in the Army - the IDF. It entails marriage - free ways of marriage because right now all Israelis, all Jews need to get married through the rabbinate and get divorced and get married. So everything is under the rabbinate. So this is a major topic..part of the agenda such of an alliance or possible government. Public transportation on Shabbat. As of right now it doesn't work. Another aspect of public life that adheres to religious rules. So along these lines.

Peled: But you have to remember that this secular government is a minority government. So it's hard to see it doing all these amazing things.

Lavi: Only Likud is not part of this government.

Peled: But Likud won't go for this anyhow.

Lavi: I'm not saying anything about the chances of it happening.

Netanel: A couple of governments ago they did join a coalition that excluded the ultra-Orthodox for the first time.

Peled: But they opposed any real change on religion and state issues.

Kaplan: But I think you raised the question of Lieberman and he's a true man of mystery. There's so much that none of us know about Lieberman, including his own indictments and criminal activity. Witnesses disappeared in various locations around the globe and other things so that's part of it. But ultimately he sees himself as representing a constituency in Israel. The former Soviet Union immigrants who came in the 1990s and part of the 21st century. And they have concrete issues that have to do with state and religion in Israel. For one thing, technically some of them are not considered Jewish in Israel or Halachic Jewish, which not being Jewish in Israel has disadvantages in various areas. So they have immediate concerns that he is attempting to address. So he is in a way a warrior in this fight because his voters are representing a certain interest that he wants to do - and marriages are very important for them and other questions that have to do with their legal status in Israel. So we have to take his immediate interest. And in a way when he was running as a kind of a regular generic right-wing politician, he felt that he was losing this constituency. But by taking the banner of fighting ...the religious establishment, in many ways, he reinvented himself and could appeal to those in his orbit that want a voice when it comes to those questions. So this is kind of his own issue that is trying to promote. And in many ways as an outsider it can have a lot of power trying to push this this agenda and ultimately appeal to others who vote on this question of religion and state. So we have to take. So Lieberman is also a very cynical politician and we have to take this into account as well.

Ben-Ephraim: I'd like to warn against any thought that Israeli politics is gonna realign around religion. This is all built on very shaky ground. Right now there's relative quiet in Israel. There's not much progress in the peace process and all that, but things are changing. The Palestinians are not gonna - not going to allow themselves to be occupied like this forever. The United States is withdrawing from the Middle East, even if Elizabeth Warren or someone like that is elected. She also wants to withdraw from the Middle East. Iran is becoming more powerful. Russia is not gonna protect Israel in the same way. If anyone thinks that security is going away as an issue in Israeli politics they're kidding themselves. And so what Lieberman is doing is he's taking care of the lull and he's moving in as an opportunist. He used racism before; he's using religion now; he will use security if he has to, or he'll disappear. But security's going nowhere; we're gonna have many more elections that are going to be run on security, and right wing and left wing will continue to be the defining barometers for for quite a long time.

Peled: But what the average Israeli thinks about security these days - I used to think this thing. But I'm changing my ...The average Israeli thinks we're in a ...you know...we're in a terrible area of the world. The situation is very bad. Tough luck - nothing we can do about it. That's our fate, and it doesn't really matter. If it's going to be Netanyahu or Gantz or Lieberman or someone else. Most of Israelis nowadays have come to the point where they accept the fact that we will live in on sword for many many years to come. If there is some ...catastrophic development ...Palestinians nuke Israel... that might change how people think about it. But my fear is that until that day, that's not going to be the decisive factor. I just wanted one one line following up on Liron that spoke about interesting alliances. Another interesting alliance that might rise if we go that path - and that will work counter to it - you'll see some of the Islamist Knesset members aligning with with the ultra-Orthodox Knesset members. We've seen that in the past and may..it will happen. It will happen. They know to close deals very well with each other. They will help prevent some of the secularization.

Netanel: What about the rest of the Arab list?

Lavi: I think that's another ... continuing what Eran said earlier about interesting developments that might rise in the next couple of years. Not immediately but over the next couple of years is is the left.

Netanel: In other words trying to bring the Arabs into an alliance with Meretz or..

Lavi: If you look at the numbers in the second round of elections you already see a lot of Meretz voters that choose to vote jointly.

Peled: First of all the left ...the left over is in such dire situation just to just you know for the numbers. If you ask the Israelis in a poll today.. a year ago.. how you identify yourself - left, center, right. Among Jews, only 7 percent defined themselves as left and 8 percent a center left. Those are quite shocking numbers and then you've got 30-something percent center and center right and right. So that's how bad the situation for the Zionist left is. And I totally agree that that might bring upon some sort of coalition with the Arabs but I have to say that there were very very intensive and serious attempts from Meretz in the past three years leading to these elections to create some sort of alliance with that's the Communist Arab or the secular Arab party... They're weren't willing to hear about it. Oda is an extraordinary politician the kind of we never had... He's definitely leading a very different line and much more open for partnerships. Everybody you know said they always are open for partnerships but he really cares how he's seen among Jews and he cares how things he said are heard among Jews and interpreted among Jews. And that does give you some optimism.

Netanel: What about from the Labour Party - talking about realignment. So first under Avi Gabbay and then even more so under Amir Peretz. He's joining with on the appearance joining with Orly Levy. There's a real effort to try to...sort of break down this ethnic divide ...but here again we fall I think into

Peled: But here again we fall into the trap that we've been into for the past 20 years. Is that will reduce everything into kind of ethnic or or identity politics and make ultimately our determination of left and right based on kind of ethnic identity. I'd like to refer to a quote by Netanyahu which I think was spot on: So Israel is a developed country and economically it's doing quite well and has withstood many of the economic turmoils that other Western countries we're victim of. But there's huge economic gaps in Israel that far exceed most Western developed countries. So they gap between the very rich and the very poor is much much bigger than most Western European countries or even the United States. And Netanyahu said it's not really a problem, because if you exclude the Arabs and the ultra-Orthodox the gaps aren't very big. So if you take out 40 percent of the population, hardly any gap. But he's right - he's correct because these two populations are also distinctly very very poor. And they have also this in common in Israel. So if there is some kind of scenario - maybe I'm too optimistic. But maybe in 10 or 15 years when we have a true realignment of the categories of right and left...if we go back to the 1950s...and here I want to correct you. Because if you read the Knesset minutes from 1950-1951, you read the words of ...They were full communists who believed in trans ethnic transnational cooperation on many fronts. But the coalition of the poor could bring about a new coalition of the left. Because if the left today are voters who come from certain neighborhoods in Tel Aviv and the towns north of Tel Aviv in some suburbs of Haifa and some neighborhoods of Jerusalem, then their appeal is limited. But if they evolve into something that maybe ...then this will create potentially new coalition's and new avenues for cooperation. But again we're not talking about 2020. We talk about development of social processes.

Ben-Ephraim: Well again I respectfully disagree. Yeah so I think that what we're seeing in the left in Israel is very similar to what we're seeing in the left in the United States, and that's that they're going from being..they're going to a very demonstrative kind of - to borrow the word from here - woke version of the left, which in Israel has absolutely no chance of ruling whatsoever. And the Labour Party was built to rule and it can't rule and that's why it's dying. And I don't know what election exactly it'll die in but it's very soon. Next election, election after - their death is is predetermined. What will remain of the left will be very demonstrative; they're not gonna be working-class heroes, to quote John Lennon...and form new alliances. They're probably going to do very little - diddly squat in in my opinion. I don't see that the new left is... has a language that can attract voters. What Amir Peretz tried to do was noble but but it failed. And they're not gonna give him another chance. They're gonna give someone probably more Ashkenazi, better on social media, who might even attract a few more votes but won't be able to build wider social coalitions. Eventually Meretz is going to be the center of the Israeli left - not the Labor Party. Labor Party will disappear.

Kaplan: A closer look at what's happening to the Democratic Party will give you more optimism... Two years ago already it's kind of dying I think. But the new forces in the Democratic Party - it's the new Green Deal, it's new thoughts on health the universal health care. I think it's moving to interesting places that the Democratic Party hasn't visited since the 1950s or 1960s. So again, this time it's Mark Twain said, Well Cincinnati - it'll take 10 or 15 years to get there. But...

Peled: I urge you to look at the infographics on Washington Post from 2 or 3 days ago about the Republican-Democratic divide. Truly under Clinton ...under the Clinton-Trump which might be different. The defining factor is not race; it is a social economic stratus. And that is the same thing by the way in Israel. There was a strong ...Ashkenazi divide because there was a that that that was the exact same thing as an economical divide. I think but I'm not an expert here. But my guess would be that, be it Elizabeth Warren, be it Bernie Sanders, it will be the richer people voting for their platforms on social economical issues for the poor. And this has to do with national identities much more than with ethnic identities. And this has to do with culture and language and and therefore...I don't see that new left of the poor happening. Not that I don't want to see it happening. I just don't see it happening now. If it does happen at some point that it's a totally different map. It's something new that we don't know. But to get the social economic interest in Israel aligned with questions of security and the peace process runs much deeper than just you deciding to promote more social agenda as...