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okay let's let's begin good afternoon

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from Los Angeles it's 1 p.m. here in

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California whoever is watching and

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listening online welcome this is a

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series of panels organized by the

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International Institute at the

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University of California Los Angeles

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about the impacts and applications of

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Copa 19 on different regions of the

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world my name is Kevin Harris I'm a

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professor in the Department of Sociology

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UCLA and I teach International Institute

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I'm joined here by my colleague Doug

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Laxman

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who is a political scientist and the

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head of the new Zion center Israeli

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studies at UCLA and we're joined by an

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illustrious panel to discuss the

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geopolitical implications of Copan 19

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for the Middle East this this panel is

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sponsored by Senator Phoenician studies

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Nazario Center for Israeli studies the

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center for Middle Eastern developments

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the Burkle Center for national relations

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and here at the UCLA international

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Institute I'd like to introduce our

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panelists we're excited for this

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conversation there's going to be a Q&A

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so if you're watching online feel free

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to send questions to our moderators and

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your question can possibly be delivered

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to one or all of the speakers in our Q&A

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section our three speakers today need a

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small deduction but their their

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accomplishments are illustrious

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so I'm going to be brief introduction so

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we can get into the discussion for today

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first we have ambassador Hassan Yousef

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who was a career diplomat with the

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initiative Foreign Affairs in Egypt he's

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held positions at the Organization of

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Islamic Cooperation and currently he's

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Jennings Randolph senior fellow at the

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u.s. Institute of Peace

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we also are happy to welcome

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Dalia dust-like Kay who's director of

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the center for Middle East public policy

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and a political scientist here in

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California at the RAND Corporation and

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finally ended Iran who is a senior

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lecturer of national relations at the

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universe

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- and is currently a visiting scholar in

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the department political science at

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Stanford University the order of the

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speakers who advanced to speak for about

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ten minutes on the geopolitical vacation

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took over nineteen for the Middle East

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in part or region are going to be has

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from yourself then died okay then who

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Iran so ambassador you said we like to

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begin please thank you very much it's a

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pleasure to join this panel thank you

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for the invitation let me start by

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saying that the pandemic resulted in

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global deceptions that have their

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reflections in the Middle East I will

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try to draw a global picture in 12

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points in with a format then address the

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Middle East implication in that context

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first we will miss the crisis in

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international cooperation with countries

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prohibiting export and using illegal

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measures and income some cases aren't

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twisting to steal medical shipments

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second there was a dismal performance by

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international and regional institutions

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until today we do not have a global

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strategy and we don't even have regional

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strategies to deal with dependent third

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the crisis gave ammunition to those

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arguing for bringing supply chains home

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an empty globalization move arguing for

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resilience at the expense of economic

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efficiency for national security

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purposes fourth peacekeeping is facing a

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huge challenge with global travelling

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comes to a halt coming to a halt and of

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course we can't resolve conflicts

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through fifth the global economy is

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devastated and this may lead to social

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unrest and we what's six I think because

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of movement constraints our life would

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be significantly shaped shaped in

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cyberspace

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and we it is yet to be seen what the

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young generation will think about that

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they were forced to seclusion and they

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may shape the new Korona world in

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cyberspace or

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perhaps have a contrarian appreciation

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for communal life we see seventh the

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future of mass protests will be in

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jeopardy eight I think people realize

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that government performance matters

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because government mistakes costs lives

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and plenty of lives

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ix I think there was also a dismal

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performance in crisis management

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providing accurate information

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countering misinformation and even

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conspiracy theories which were rampant

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then I think also the pandemic resulted

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in societal tensions as those who stayed

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home were angry because they felt that

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those who are living the rooms put them

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in danger regardless of why they were

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leaving their homes and then 11th

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I think the pandemic provided an excuse

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for some governments to expand into safe

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surveillance under the guise of tracing

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context of those who are benthic in fact

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and finally we thought that we had a

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pretty good command on science to

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relieve us of much of our suffering and

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of course we were definitely affirmed so

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the pandemic has shaken the foundations

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of our existence and this is not a

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temporary interruption of the norm I

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think we need to come to terms with a

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new world that is endemic and if the

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pandemic had caused huge challenges in

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the most advanced countries you can only

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imagine the kind of havoc it has been

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witnessing devastating conflicts massive

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delays

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displacement erosion of governance

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capacity social cohesion and so on but

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if I come to the Middle East I will

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address very briefly four points

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conflict dynamics healthcare systems

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democracy and change and the economic

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challenges if I go to the conflict

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dynamics there were those who are

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questioning when the pandemic started

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whether political efforts will be

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mobilized to resolve or at least

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stabilize some of the protracted

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conflicts and I think it's obvious today

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that

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there's not happen and probably will not

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happen it's interesting that for example

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in the israeli-palestinian conflict the

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Palestinians were in a dilemma between

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the necessity of cooperation which took

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place but in order to save life and

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political realities of annexation plan

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that was forcing them to move towards

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ending cooperation with Israel in Yemen

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we have we haven't seen any real

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progress on the ground in Libya we saw

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the situation even getting much worse

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with situation changing on the ground

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was savage taking back many areas from

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hefter in Syria political process has

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its ups and downs mostly downs but no

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real focus the ISIS has increased

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attacks in Iraq and Syria on the

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positive side you know there we have

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witnessed that a vacuum minister was

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chosen after a long delay and there is

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there is marginally reduced Iranian

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activity in Iraq we also have seen a

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reduction in escalation between the

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United States and Iran although this

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will probably be revised one revived

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soon when they start discussing in the

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Security Council the possible extension

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of an arms embargo so so you know the

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situation is is rather difficult but all

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these conflicts resulted in a

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humanitarian situation that has a

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staggering cost in Syria half the half

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the population was forcibly displaced

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and we have the worst humanitarian

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situation in the world in Yemen in

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addition to humanitarian catastrophes in

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many other places in the region but the

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general sentiment in many of these

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conflict areas is that well we can die

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from the virus but probably does death

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will come first either from the conflict

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from hunger or from other sicknesses as

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well so so they have also been suffering

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but they have all kinds of problems and

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they feel that the virus is not the

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biggest problem that they have and of

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course impossible to comprehend to

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contemplate social distancing in huge

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overcrowded and insanitary refugee camps

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of course humanitarian situations is

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extremely difficult in conflict zones in

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the best of times

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now I haven't add to that the Kahuna

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virus and disruptions in supplies

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shipping interruptions travel

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restrictions the decision-making delays

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and so on it made the situation very

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difficult for all those who are

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suffering individual on the positive

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side we saw some Gulf countries

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providing assistance to Iran a gesture

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to demonstrate political intend to use

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the crisis to ease regional tensions we

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saw the UAE becoming the second largest

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aid donor in the world and and so on

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but still we have our problems cut out

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for us and I think radicalization would

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be under on the rise and the conflict

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may become also more difficult in terms

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of how that the conflicting parties will

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deal with all kinds of requirements

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pertaining to the pandemic but the key

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point is that the developments

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pertaining to conflict wave driven by

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the conflict dynamics and they were not

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influenced in any fundamental manner by

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the pandemic if we go to the healthcare

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systems I think also it is you know as

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we have seen in in the countries that

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have the most robust healthcare systems

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they were suffering from all kinds of

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difficulties so the Middle East of

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course had these difficulties multiplied

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but it also reminded people in different

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places around the world particularly in

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developing countries that even if you

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are from the protected elite in society

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you must worry about the health of those

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neglected populations because at the end

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of the day the overall health in society

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depends on the health of its poorest

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people and if a second wave of

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infections is inevitable as economies

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open up according to experts and perhaps

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also a third wave may be coming by next

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fall then in many developing countries

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in

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loading in the Middle East probably

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already late in preparing for this

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eventualities if I go to democracy and

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change and I think this is crucial for

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the future of of the vision because the

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vision has witnessed a first wave of

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revolutions in the last decade and you

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know as a result of all kinds of demands

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coming from from from the people for all

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kinds of drivers but then after that as

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a result of the you know governments not

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responding we saw a second wave that had

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Algeria Sudan Lebanon and Iraq and so on

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and the grievances haven't been

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addressed and over and above now it has

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become even more difficult with public

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health concerns added to the list of

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these public grievances but in addition

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to the lockdown governments in the

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region intensified efforts to control

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the mindset so punishing those who are

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spreading information about the pandemic

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that contradicts the messages coming

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from from the government and there is

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clear evidence that some countries are

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preventing posters using the excuse of

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the fear of the spread of device and of

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course some governments are using

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surveillance tools to track those

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infected but all these technology tools

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can be abused to track protesters and

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opposition and of course state measures

281

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would be much more intrusive so so it is

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it is a problem in relation to how how

283

00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:40,420

things will develop in relation to this

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issue governments you know are

285

00:12:40,420 --> 00:12:46,000

struggling with the difficult difficult

286

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challenges of suppressing the viable the

287

00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:50,350

virus and reviving the economy and it is

288

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recognized that they occurred that the

289

00:12:50,350 --> 00:12:57,850

economic situation globally will suffer

290

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hugely from from dependent the IMF

291

00:12:57,850 --> 00:13:02,320

considers it a crisis like no other

292

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because of its depth and because the

293

00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:06,940

whole world is suffering the World Bank

294

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expects that half a billion people will

295

00:13:06,940 --> 00:13:13,240

be added to those who are destitute the

296

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World Food Programme thinks that there

297

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are 260

298

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million people that would be pushed to

299

00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:21,630

the brink of salvation so the cost is

300

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huge and in the Middle East also the

301

00:13:21,630 --> 00:13:26,100

Gulf countries have been suffering

302

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because of the price of oil countries

303

00:13:26,100 --> 00:13:30,000

dependent dependent on tourism like

304

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Egypt Tunisia Morocco and so on have

305

00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:35,250

seen zero traffic of course the Gulf

306

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also will have to send many workers home

307

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so this would affect workers admittances

308

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but also there is an impact on trade

309

00:13:40,230 --> 00:13:45,750

investment travel industries and so on

310

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so it is a taste problem and of course

311

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the debates on me or opening the

312

00:13:48,029 --> 00:13:53,930

economies are very difficult because it

313

00:13:50,100 --> 00:13:56,010

is it is very difficult to to have

314

00:13:53,930 --> 00:14:01,140

reconciling approaches between

315

00:13:56,010 --> 00:14:05,399

politicians physicians and economists so

316

00:14:01,140 --> 00:14:07,440

it is quite difficult so you know in the

317

00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:10,589

meantime also the millions of jobs over

318

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the Middle East will be will be lost as

319

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a result otherwise let me conclude by by

320

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indicating that countries will be facing

321

00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:22,320

a choice in relation to both their

322

00:14:20,250 --> 00:14:24,360

internal policies and their external

323

00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:26,160

policies and internally they will either

324

00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,050

benefit from the crisis and deal with

325

00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:30,510

the shortcomings in the model pratik

326

00:14:28,050 --> 00:14:32,490

democratic and rules-based faith-based

327

00:14:30,510 --> 00:14:34,500

approach or they will move towards

328

00:14:32,490 --> 00:14:40,110

curtailing freedom of expression and

329

00:14:34,500 --> 00:14:41,610

pursue a path of externally they have to

330

00:14:40,110 --> 00:14:43,980

take into account that the global system

331

00:14:41,610 --> 00:14:46,410

will be weakened and will either they

332

00:14:43,980 --> 00:14:49,860

will either adapt adopt inward

333

00:14:46,410 --> 00:14:51,600

isolationist policy or one based on

334

00:14:49,860 --> 00:14:54,540

genuine international cooperation and

335

00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:57,120

they will ask the question can we find

336

00:14:54,540 --> 00:14:59,519

global solutions to global problems or

337

00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:01,920

are we going to take a different route

338

00:14:59,519 --> 00:15:04,079

and I think in the Middle East I hope

339

00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:06,209

that the pandemic will have convinced

340

00:15:04,079 --> 00:15:08,070

people by now that the main challenge is

341

00:15:06,209 --> 00:15:12,769

good governance not whether we are Sunni

342

00:15:08,070 --> 00:15:12,769

or Shia secular or slack thank you

343

00:15:15,140 --> 00:15:20,070

okay thank you ambassador excellent

344

00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:23,960

excellent point so I'd like to turn over

345

00:15:20,070 --> 00:15:26,730

to dr. kay and let's hear her remarks

346

00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:29,250

okay well thank you so much to UCLA for

347

00:15:26,730 --> 00:15:31,890

hosting this as often occurs in these

348

00:15:29,250 --> 00:15:33,540

types of panels when you have such an

349

00:15:31,890 --> 00:15:34,530

excellent first speaker I really feel

350

00:15:33,540 --> 00:15:36,060

like I have very little to add

351

00:15:34,530 --> 00:15:37,770

ambassador I couldn't agree more

352

00:15:36,060 --> 00:15:40,230

especially with your last sentiment

353

00:15:37,770 --> 00:15:42,690

about the need for good governance and

354

00:15:40,230 --> 00:15:44,970

and leadership understanding a better

355

00:15:42,690 --> 00:15:48,000

way forward unfortunately I don't think

356

00:15:44,970 --> 00:15:51,510

we're there today what I'll do is I'll

357

00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:53,250

focus on what I think are my basic

358

00:15:51,510 --> 00:15:55,560

premise at this point and I do want to

359

00:15:53,250 --> 00:15:57,630

caveat this by saying that we're we're

360

00:15:55,560 --> 00:16:00,180

very early into this crisis when we're

361

00:15:57,630 --> 00:16:02,490

talking about geopolitical impacts it

362

00:16:00,180 --> 00:16:04,020

will take years to really understand the

363

00:16:02,490 --> 00:16:05,940

full magnitude of such a

364

00:16:04,020 --> 00:16:09,240

transformational crisis as we're living

365

00:16:05,940 --> 00:16:12,300

in today so I just wanted to preface my

366

00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:14,670

comments with that but at this stage I

367

00:16:12,300 --> 00:16:16,440

would say that short of governments

368

00:16:14,670 --> 00:16:18,480

collapsing which is possible because

369

00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:21,750

this pandemic is coming at a time will

370

00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:23,490

already intense fragility across this

371

00:16:21,750 --> 00:16:27,900

region and governments across this

372

00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:30,710

region I my main thesis is that I think

373

00:16:27,900 --> 00:16:33,000

the pandemic is largely accelerating and

374

00:16:30,710 --> 00:16:34,830

exacerbating existing trend lines so

375

00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:37,470

what I'll do is I'll outline a few of

376

00:16:34,830 --> 00:16:39,630

those key trend lines there are many I

377

00:16:37,470 --> 00:16:41,550

think I'll put israel-palestine on the

378

00:16:39,630 --> 00:16:43,830

side since I would speaking after me so

379

00:16:41,550 --> 00:16:45,180

I'll let you you speak to that I have

380

00:16:43,830 --> 00:16:47,400

thoughts on that but we'll let you speak

381

00:16:45,180 --> 00:16:50,280

to that and I'll focus on some of the

382

00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:52,140

other region-wide trends which are not

383

00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,910

largely negative and I will be arguing

384

00:16:52,140 --> 00:16:56,340

this crisis is unfortunately only making

385

00:16:53,910 --> 00:16:58,560

them worse and I'll just conclude with I

386

00:16:56,340 --> 00:17:00,570

think maybe a couple areas of openings

387

00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:02,610

or potential shifts in in the

388

00:17:00,570 --> 00:17:05,069

geopolitical balance that may be

389

00:17:02,610 --> 00:17:06,540

resulting because of this pandemic so

390

00:17:05,069 --> 00:17:08,730

starting with with some of the key

391

00:17:06,540 --> 00:17:11,970

trends and I'll start with US Iran which

392

00:17:08,730 --> 00:17:13,740

is the space i watch most closely and

393

00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:16,319

here i might disagree a little bit with

394

00:17:13,740 --> 00:17:19,260

the ambassador unfortunately I think

395

00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:21,060

that while there was hope and and this

396

00:17:19,260 --> 00:17:24,750

would have been theoretically a

397

00:17:21,060 --> 00:17:26,610

brilliant time for a political opening

398

00:17:24,750 --> 00:17:28,020

to de-escalate this crisis there was a

399

00:17:26,610 --> 00:17:31,380

lot of talk about

400

00:17:28,020 --> 00:17:33,900

given how hard hit Iran was of course

401

00:17:31,380 --> 00:17:35,940

they themselves watch their response to

402

00:17:33,900 --> 00:17:39,360

this but the Iranian people are

403

00:17:35,940 --> 00:17:41,250

suffering considerably from this crisis

404

00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:44,460

the Iran was the epicenter outside of

405

00:17:41,250 --> 00:17:46,770

East Asia if the outside of this crisis

406

00:17:44,460 --> 00:17:49,770

so there was talk about a humanitarian

407

00:17:46,770 --> 00:17:53,700

ceasefire humanitarian gestures ease the

408

00:17:49,770 --> 00:17:56,430

sanctions let up on escalation try to

409

00:17:53,700 --> 00:17:58,130

kind of reset obviously not a

410

00:17:56,430 --> 00:18:02,820

rapprochement between the u.s. and Iran

411

00:17:58,130 --> 00:18:04,380

but at least a pause we unfortunately

412

00:18:02,820 --> 00:18:06,090

there's also the sense that because of

413

00:18:04,380 --> 00:18:08,490

the the constraints on both sides at

414

00:18:06,090 --> 00:18:10,200

home with such a so many domestic

415

00:18:08,490 --> 00:18:12,270

pressures to deal with that that would

416

00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:14,480

also lower the temperature and the

417

00:18:12,270 --> 00:18:16,380

incentive to continue escalating

418

00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,710

unfortunately though I don't think this

419

00:18:16,380 --> 00:18:22,440

political opportunity has been seized

420

00:18:18,710 --> 00:18:24,060

and I actually would argue that you know

421

00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,380

putting rhetoric aside although the

422

00:18:24,060 --> 00:18:27,770

rhetoric is still pretty strong on both

423

00:18:25,380 --> 00:18:30,150

sides even if you look at actual

424

00:18:27,770 --> 00:18:32,400

developments on the ground over the last

425

00:18:30,150 --> 00:18:34,620

few months we're actually seeing in my

426

00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:39,150

view a continued escalation of this

427

00:18:34,620 --> 00:18:41,370

crisis we are just saw continued rocket

428

00:18:39,150 --> 00:18:44,640

attacks against from Iranian backed

429

00:18:41,370 --> 00:18:48,870

militia forces in Iraq in mid-march that

430

00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:51,900

killed two US personnel we see Iran

431

00:18:48,870 --> 00:18:54,210

continuing to expand its be and push the

432

00:18:51,900 --> 00:18:56,370

limits on its nuclear program following

433

00:18:54,210 --> 00:18:59,190

of course the u.s. unilateral withdrawal

434

00:18:56,370 --> 00:19:01,140

from that agreement we've seen cyber

435

00:18:59,190 --> 00:19:04,010

attacks on Israeli water facilities a

436

00:19:01,140 --> 00:19:07,610

counter cyber attack from the Israelis

437

00:19:04,010 --> 00:19:11,490

military satellite launched last month

438

00:19:07,610 --> 00:19:12,540

the US for its part is threatening even

439

00:19:11,490 --> 00:19:14,430

though it's not in the nuclear agreement

440

00:19:12,540 --> 00:19:16,590

any more this kind of convoluted

441

00:19:14,430 --> 00:19:19,650

argument that it's in the deal so it can

442

00:19:16,590 --> 00:19:23,510

snap back sanctions and continue the UN

443

00:19:19,650 --> 00:19:25,800

arms embargo just today we saw the u.s.

444

00:19:23,510 --> 00:19:27,720

announced that it will stop the waivers

445

00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:30,000

for International Cooperation to stop

446

00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:32,670

the non-proliferation efforts occurring

447

00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,080

in Iran I could go on and on but to me

448

00:19:32,670 --> 00:19:36,720

this is not an environment of

449

00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:39,240

de-escalation since early January when

450

00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:41,220

the u.s. and Iran engaged in the first

451

00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,850

direct military conflict in the very

452

00:19:41,220 --> 00:19:43,620

long

453

00:19:41,850 --> 00:19:46,950

torturous relationship our two countries

454

00:19:43,620 --> 00:19:49,770

have so I would make the argument sadly

455

00:19:46,950 --> 00:19:52,830

that not only is the escalation not over

456

00:19:49,770 --> 00:19:55,880

but the pandemic may only incentivize

457

00:19:52,830 --> 00:19:58,559

both sides to double down on escalatory

458

00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,850

policies even if the intent is not to

459

00:19:58,559 --> 00:20:02,070

have all out war and I've seen many

460

00:19:59,850 --> 00:20:04,410

analyses very convincing analyses that

461

00:20:02,070 --> 00:20:07,260

neither side wants war they can't afford

462

00:20:04,410 --> 00:20:09,510

it domestically etc etc but yet actions

463

00:20:07,260 --> 00:20:12,510

on the ground are leading us down this

464

00:20:09,510 --> 00:20:15,179

path you could argue and there are some

465

00:20:12,510 --> 00:20:18,270

we're continuing to see reporting of the

466

00:20:15,179 --> 00:20:20,520

debates and the Trump administration but

467

00:20:18,270 --> 00:20:22,049

those who are pushing for continuation

468

00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:25,110

and maximum pressure a more hawkish

469

00:20:22,049 --> 00:20:27,150

position continually gaining the upper

470

00:20:25,110 --> 00:20:29,309

ground despite the lack of strategic

471

00:20:27,150 --> 00:20:31,080

results from this policy we are not

472

00:20:29,309 --> 00:20:33,360

seeing a better behaved Iran we're not

473

00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,640

seeing a better nuclear deal but yet the

474

00:20:33,360 --> 00:20:38,309

focus is on continued pressure and and I

475

00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:42,390

think there's a sense that you know Iran

476

00:20:38,309 --> 00:20:44,340

may be it facing this pandemic on top of

477

00:20:42,390 --> 00:20:45,929

protests we saw last fall at the top of

478

00:20:44,340 --> 00:20:48,840

the economic catastrophe the country's

479

00:20:45,929 --> 00:20:52,230

facing and of course the oil price

480

00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:54,630

plunge we there are some who can been in

481

00:20:52,230 --> 00:20:56,309

bold be emboldened and feel Iran is on

482

00:20:54,630 --> 00:20:58,260

the ropes this is time for the knockout

483

00:20:56,309 --> 00:21:00,030

punch either to bring them back to a

484

00:20:58,260 --> 00:21:02,820

better deal or maybe it will lead to

485

00:21:00,030 --> 00:21:05,130

regime collapse but there are I think

486

00:21:02,820 --> 00:21:08,070

case there's a case to be made that the

487

00:21:05,130 --> 00:21:09,870

pandemic could lead to a confidence in

488

00:21:08,070 --> 00:21:12,929

the current strategy that will just

489

00:21:09,870 --> 00:21:15,690

encourage further escalatory actions the

490

00:21:12,929 --> 00:21:18,870

Iranians for their part could be viewing

491

00:21:15,690 --> 00:21:20,880

the situation in a similar way in the

492

00:21:18,870 --> 00:21:22,770

sense that they may feel well the u.s.

493

00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:26,549

is more constrained now in terms of

494

00:21:22,770 --> 00:21:29,010

responding to our provocations and that

495

00:21:26,549 --> 00:21:30,690

because there's US elections coming up

496

00:21:29,010 --> 00:21:33,450

there's other priorities domestically

497

00:21:30,690 --> 00:21:35,970

the u.s. is facing this this pandemic is

498

00:21:33,450 --> 00:21:37,559

hitting the u.s. very hard that the u.s.

499

00:21:35,970 --> 00:21:41,669

is less likely the Trump administration

500

00:21:37,559 --> 00:21:43,320

is less likely to want to retaliate in

501

00:21:41,669 --> 00:21:47,840

any significant way

502

00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:50,450

so my concern in sum is that the

503

00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:53,850

potential of both sides being

504

00:21:50,450 --> 00:21:55,420

overconfident could lead to a continued

505

00:21:53,850 --> 00:21:58,330

escalation and even renew

506

00:21:55,420 --> 00:22:00,880

conflict even if both sides didn't end

507

00:21:58,330 --> 00:22:02,620

it so that's the strategic trendline the

508

00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,480

first strategic and trendline that will

509

00:22:02,620 --> 00:22:06,070

actually touch every corner of the

510

00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,770

region that I'm watching most closely

511

00:22:06,070 --> 00:22:11,650

that I think this pandemic has actually

512

00:22:08,770 --> 00:22:14,200

made worse potentially I hope I'm wrong

513

00:22:11,650 --> 00:22:16,120

but that's my Sussman at this stage the

514

00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,040

second trend line that I'm looking at

515

00:22:16,120 --> 00:22:21,730

that I think many of us are looking at

516

00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:23,800

are is the growing influence of Russian

517

00:22:21,730 --> 00:22:26,380

and Chinese involvement in the region

518

00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:29,560

I'm less focused on Russia Russia's a

519

00:22:26,380 --> 00:22:32,650

more opportunistic actor faces its own

520

00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:35,650

constraints in the region but China

521

00:22:32,650 --> 00:22:37,870

China has a long-term strategy in the

522

00:22:35,650 --> 00:22:40,540

Middle East it's developing through the

523

00:22:37,870 --> 00:22:43,390

belt and Road initiative extensive

524

00:22:40,540 --> 00:22:46,750

networks largely economic investment but

525

00:22:43,390 --> 00:22:48,430

it's a long-term plan to stay in this

526

00:22:46,750 --> 00:22:51,610

region they are most dependent on the

527

00:22:48,430 --> 00:22:53,380

region in terms of oil and I don't

528

00:22:51,610 --> 00:22:55,150

necessarily think it's a bad thing I'm

529

00:22:53,380 --> 00:22:56,800

not in the camp that says yes or no good

530

00:22:55,150 --> 00:22:57,880

or bad we could use some burden cheering

531

00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,370

it all depends what they do with that

532

00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:02,830

influence but it is a trendline to watch

533

00:23:00,370 --> 00:23:05,470

and what's interesting is that the

534

00:23:02,830 --> 00:23:09,490

Chinese have really capitalized on kovat

535

00:23:05,470 --> 00:23:10,930

and this pandemic to build even further

536

00:23:09,490 --> 00:23:13,330

relationships and deepen relationships

537

00:23:10,930 --> 00:23:17,650

with countries in the region you saw

538

00:23:13,330 --> 00:23:20,500

early on shipment of 250,000 masks to

539

00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:22,900

Iran for example in late April China

540

00:23:20,500 --> 00:23:25,510

signed a deal with Saudi Arabia for the

541

00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:28,240

purchase of Chinese test kits and

542

00:23:25,510 --> 00:23:30,430

medical expertise it's really an

543

00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:33,340

interesting PR coup given how much China

544

00:23:30,430 --> 00:23:35,920

itself watched this their response to

545

00:23:33,340 --> 00:23:37,780

the pandemic and try to hide it at the

546

00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,910

at the outset but they kind of turned it

547

00:23:37,780 --> 00:23:42,910

around and now it presented themselves

548

00:23:39,910 --> 00:23:45,070

at the trusted global power that can

549

00:23:42,910 --> 00:23:47,140

handle this kind of public health crisis

550

00:23:45,070 --> 00:23:49,330

better certainly than the United States

551

00:23:47,140 --> 00:23:51,130

so that's how they're presenting it I

552

00:23:49,330 --> 00:23:53,590

don't know how long lasting that will be

553

00:23:51,130 --> 00:23:55,960

but just looking at GDP and kind of hard

554

00:23:53,590 --> 00:23:57,700

numbers alone China's in the region for

555

00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,800

the long haul and I think this pandemic

556

00:23:57,700 --> 00:24:02,410

has done nothing to reverse it and most

557

00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:04,300

likely has accelerated it the third

558

00:24:02,410 --> 00:24:06,970

trend line which very much tracks with

559

00:24:04,300 --> 00:24:08,930

some of what the Ambassador said which

560

00:24:06,970 --> 00:24:11,270

is one of the most worrying trend lines

561

00:24:08,930 --> 00:24:13,010

the regions which is the continuation of

562

00:24:11,270 --> 00:24:13,640

entrenched authoritarianism and

563

00:24:13,010 --> 00:24:16,790

repression

564

00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:19,030

again this is a unfortunately trend

565

00:24:16,790 --> 00:24:22,730

lines that have been ongoing

566

00:24:19,030 --> 00:24:25,880

particularly brutal after the counter

567

00:24:22,730 --> 00:24:28,640

revolutions from the Arab uprisings over

568

00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:31,880

this past decade there's continued

569

00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:35,570

unrest across the region society

570

00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:37,520

societal divisions inequity corruption

571

00:24:35,570 --> 00:24:39,950

it's not just about unemployment

572

00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,840

although that's a huge pressure I've

573

00:24:39,950 --> 00:24:43,790

seen some predictions that that this

574

00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,380

pandemic combined with these previous

575

00:24:43,790 --> 00:24:47,420

pressures could lead countries like

576

00:24:45,380 --> 00:24:50,420

Jordan to face up to seventy percent

577

00:24:47,420 --> 00:24:52,340

unemployment youth unemployment huge

578

00:24:50,420 --> 00:24:55,100

pressures on these countries it's it's

579

00:24:52,340 --> 00:24:58,670

not a coincidence that this is a region

580

00:24:55,100 --> 00:25:01,760

that is ripe for breeding grounds for

581

00:24:58,670 --> 00:25:03,560

extremist groups unfortunately we saw

582

00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:07,600

with the rise of Isis and concerns about

583

00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:11,210

that returning so in this environment

584

00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:14,510

unfortunately we have authoritarian

585

00:25:11,210 --> 00:25:16,720

leaders in in many places and even in

586

00:25:14,510 --> 00:25:20,630

those and kind of partial or semi

587

00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:22,760

partial democracies you know really kind

588

00:25:20,630 --> 00:25:24,410

of going to the traditional playbook the

589

00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,750

ambassador I think spelled it out well

590

00:25:24,410 --> 00:25:30,290

you know using the crisis the public

591

00:25:26,750 --> 00:25:33,110

health crisis as the cover to crackdown

592

00:25:30,290 --> 00:25:34,940

on legitimate political opposition and

593

00:25:33,110 --> 00:25:36,500

that's a really worrying trend line

594

00:25:34,940 --> 00:25:38,780

especially when they're resorting to

595

00:25:36,500 --> 00:25:41,180

these surveillance tactics that are you

596

00:25:38,780 --> 00:25:43,010

know are good good tactics to have in a

597

00:25:41,180 --> 00:25:45,800

public health crisis in terms of tracing

598

00:25:43,010 --> 00:25:47,360

and so forth but the but those tactics

599

00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,640

combined with the strong role we're

600

00:25:47,360 --> 00:25:51,830

seeing in the military playing in many

601

00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:54,710

of these countries particularly because

602

00:25:51,830 --> 00:25:57,050

of such weak state institutions those

603

00:25:54,710 --> 00:25:59,150

could outlast this pandemic and that's a

604

00:25:57,050 --> 00:26:00,620

very worrying trend line for anyone that

605

00:25:59,150 --> 00:26:03,230

would like to see forget about the

606

00:26:00,620 --> 00:26:04,490

democracy word but just for anyone would

607

00:26:03,230 --> 00:26:06,590

like to see better governance and

608

00:26:04,490 --> 00:26:10,070

accountability in this region extremely

609

00:26:06,590 --> 00:26:11,720

extremely concerning the the last one I

610

00:26:10,070 --> 00:26:13,850

will point to in terms of trend lines

611

00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:16,730

again the Ambassador touched on it which

612

00:26:13,850 --> 00:26:18,170

is the humanitarian catastrophes before

613

00:26:16,730 --> 00:26:20,840

the pandemic largely man-made

614

00:26:18,170 --> 00:26:22,989

catastrophes caused by these horrific

615

00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:27,259

civil wars in

616

00:26:22,989 --> 00:26:31,210

Libya and Yemen in particular and that

617

00:26:27,259 --> 00:26:35,059

has produced the some of the most

618

00:26:31,210 --> 00:26:36,919

daunting humanitarian crises that we

619

00:26:35,059 --> 00:26:39,190

have seen the region has the biggest

620

00:26:36,919 --> 00:26:44,629

displacement crisis since World War two

621

00:26:39,190 --> 00:26:46,940

globally so far and I you know we

622

00:26:44,629 --> 00:26:49,729

shouldn't hold our breath right now in

623

00:26:46,940 --> 00:26:51,950

countries that are most war-torn Syria

624

00:26:49,729 --> 00:26:55,159

Yemen the numbers of covet or particular

625

00:26:51,950 --> 00:26:57,049

are relatively low but you know the

626

00:26:55,159 --> 00:26:59,269

worst may be yet to come in the Middle

627

00:26:57,049 --> 00:27:01,399

East and as the Ambassador laid out the

628

00:26:59,269 --> 00:27:03,019

region is completely unprepared to deal

629

00:27:01,399 --> 00:27:04,820

with public health crisis of this

630

00:27:03,019 --> 00:27:08,299

magnitude in terms of health

631

00:27:04,820 --> 00:27:10,729

infrastructure capability and so forth

632

00:27:08,299 --> 00:27:12,649

and the refugee issue and a displaced

633

00:27:10,729 --> 00:27:16,009

person issue is particularly concerning

634

00:27:12,649 --> 00:27:18,200

given that refugees live in these

635

00:27:16,009 --> 00:27:21,049

crowded conditions both within camps in

636

00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:22,249

these city areas or encampments and are

637

00:27:21,049 --> 00:27:24,169

more likely to have pre-existing

638

00:27:22,249 --> 00:27:26,450

conditions because they did have

639

00:27:24,169 --> 00:27:29,539

previous access to adequate health care

640

00:27:26,450 --> 00:27:31,460

so right now it has not multiplied the

641

00:27:29,539 --> 00:27:34,970

already daunting crisis but that I think

642

00:27:31,460 --> 00:27:36,950

is a huge concern that that covet is

643

00:27:34,970 --> 00:27:39,769

going to only exacerbate those those

644

00:27:36,950 --> 00:27:41,450

difficult conflict conditions and

645

00:27:39,769 --> 00:27:43,720

unfortunately I would agree with the

646

00:27:41,450 --> 00:27:46,279

Ambassador that the underlying

647

00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:48,979

incentives to continue these conflicts

648

00:27:46,279 --> 00:27:50,690

are still in place unfortunately in many

649

00:27:48,979 --> 00:27:52,999

of these in these places we can get more

650

00:27:50,690 --> 00:27:55,820

into that in QA I want to just conclude

651

00:27:52,999 --> 00:27:58,460

with a couple I don't know if I want to

652

00:27:55,820 --> 00:28:00,320

say bright spots they may be short-lived

653

00:27:58,460 --> 00:28:02,330

but areas where where things may be

654

00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,369

shifting a little bit and and here I

655

00:28:02,330 --> 00:28:06,769

want to make it clear that it's not just

656

00:28:04,369 --> 00:28:08,809

because of the pandemic I think a lot of

657

00:28:06,769 --> 00:28:11,149

this is also because we have a perfect

658

00:28:08,809 --> 00:28:13,759

storm of and they're related of course

659

00:28:11,149 --> 00:28:15,950

but the pandemic which with the oil

660

00:28:13,759 --> 00:28:19,369

crisis and the drastic drop in oil

661

00:28:15,950 --> 00:28:21,889

revenue and demand that combined with

662

00:28:19,369 --> 00:28:24,429

this public health crisis could have

663

00:28:21,889 --> 00:28:27,889

transformational effects in this region

664

00:28:24,429 --> 00:28:30,349

the one area where the first area where

665

00:28:27,889 --> 00:28:31,789

I think it's a potential opening and

666

00:28:30,349 --> 00:28:33,200

this is an area where I think this was

667

00:28:31,789 --> 00:28:35,299

happening anyway even before the

668

00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,679

epidemic is this potential for

669

00:28:35,299 --> 00:28:38,869

de-escalation between the air

670

00:28:36,679 --> 00:28:41,119

Gulf and Iran between the GCC Gulf

671

00:28:38,869 --> 00:28:43,249

Cooperation Council States and Iran you

672

00:28:41,119 --> 00:28:46,730

already saw the United Arab Emirates

673

00:28:43,249 --> 00:28:48,889

even before the pandemic interested in

674

00:28:46,730 --> 00:28:50,570

talking reaching out to the Iranians

675

00:28:48,889 --> 00:28:53,450

they started to hold maritime security

676

00:28:50,570 --> 00:28:56,179

talks not coincidentally after they

677

00:28:53,450 --> 00:28:58,909

started to have tankers and and oil

678

00:28:56,179 --> 00:29:00,710

sites bombed a targeted by the Iranians

679

00:28:58,909 --> 00:29:03,080

over the summer last summer when the

680

00:29:00,710 --> 00:29:05,029

Iranians decided that they would exact a

681

00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:07,610

toll for the Trump administration specs

682

00:29:05,029 --> 00:29:09,559

and pressure policy and some of these of

683

00:29:07,610 --> 00:29:11,389

Iran's neighbors in the Erb Gulf kind of

684

00:29:09,559 --> 00:29:12,950

looked turned around and said huh yeah

685

00:29:11,389 --> 00:29:16,399

we'd like the idea of Iran being

686

00:29:12,950 --> 00:29:19,070

contained we don't like Iran but this is

687

00:29:16,399 --> 00:29:20,779

your escalation you us your escalation

688

00:29:19,070 --> 00:29:24,049

with Iran is starting to literally hit

689

00:29:20,779 --> 00:29:27,139

home and and that's not okay because we

690

00:29:24,049 --> 00:29:29,869

don't want an implosion in Iran on our

691

00:29:27,139 --> 00:29:31,369

border this is not a strategic way to

692

00:29:29,869 --> 00:29:33,889

deal with the Iran problem so they

693

00:29:31,369 --> 00:29:35,450

started to reach out on their own and so

694

00:29:33,889 --> 00:29:38,509

we started to see some de-escalation

695

00:29:35,450 --> 00:29:41,649

there and with the pandemic I think the

696

00:29:38,509 --> 00:29:44,330

Ambassador mentioned this that we had a

697

00:29:41,649 --> 00:29:46,190

shipment from the Emiratis to the

698

00:29:44,330 --> 00:29:47,720

Iranians we even had high-level

699

00:29:46,190 --> 00:29:50,869

discussions that we have not seen

700

00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:52,549

between the Emiratis and the Iranians so

701

00:29:50,869 --> 00:29:55,279

that's potentially good news we've also

702

00:29:52,549 --> 00:29:58,220

seen the escalation potential in Yemen

703

00:29:55,279 --> 00:30:00,139

the Emirates were already signaling an

704

00:29:58,220 --> 00:30:02,090

interest in winding that war down we've

705

00:30:00,139 --> 00:30:04,730

seen an interest in a ceasefire from the

706

00:30:02,090 --> 00:30:07,789

Saudis kovat could potentially

707

00:30:04,730 --> 00:30:10,580

accelerate those trends in the sense

708

00:30:07,789 --> 00:30:12,499

that there's less capacity potentially

709

00:30:10,580 --> 00:30:15,679

to engage in these kinds of conflicts

710

00:30:12,499 --> 00:30:18,499

with this pandemic and oil crisis raging

711

00:30:15,679 --> 00:30:19,789

at home the final I think shift which is

712

00:30:18,499 --> 00:30:21,980

I think one of the more interesting

713

00:30:19,789 --> 00:30:25,249

spaces to watch and relates to the first

714

00:30:21,980 --> 00:30:27,379

de-escalation but could have other

715

00:30:25,249 --> 00:30:30,649

impacts as well which is the changing

716

00:30:27,379 --> 00:30:33,649

nature of the Arab Gulf the the oil

717

00:30:30,649 --> 00:30:35,179

crisis and the pandemic is could

718

00:30:33,649 --> 00:30:37,249

potentially really change these

719

00:30:35,179 --> 00:30:40,100

societies for a long time for at least

720

00:30:37,249 --> 00:30:42,679

the past decade if not longer these

721

00:30:40,100 --> 00:30:44,299

smaller Gulf states Saudi Arabia the

722

00:30:42,679 --> 00:30:47,899

largest among them but the smaller Gulf

723

00:30:44,299 --> 00:30:50,509

states really have been asserting their

724

00:30:47,899 --> 00:30:53,449

power in a way disproportionate to

725

00:30:50,509 --> 00:30:56,419

what you would expect given their size

726

00:30:53,449 --> 00:30:58,129

and capacity and so one could argue or

727

00:30:56,419 --> 00:31:02,059

it's something to look at whether

728

00:30:58,129 --> 00:31:04,759

they're political clout will diminish as

729

00:31:02,059 --> 00:31:06,889

the expats leave their countries as

730

00:31:04,759 --> 00:31:09,289

they're not able to host these broad

731

00:31:06,889 --> 00:31:11,809

international summits I think Emirates

732

00:31:09,289 --> 00:31:13,959

how to cancel the expo in this fall they

733

00:31:11,809 --> 00:31:16,039

were expecting 25 million visitors

734

00:31:13,959 --> 00:31:19,479

they're going to have they're having a

735

00:31:16,039 --> 00:31:23,569

flight of their of their expat workers

736

00:31:19,479 --> 00:31:24,679

from South Asia some of this could be a

737

00:31:23,569 --> 00:31:25,940

very good thing because it can

738

00:31:24,679 --> 00:31:27,919

accelerate some of the diversification

739

00:31:25,940 --> 00:31:31,129

that they've been aiming for in terms of

740

00:31:27,919 --> 00:31:33,739

their own domestic reforms so I'm not

741

00:31:31,129 --> 00:31:35,059

saying it's a particularly bad thing we

742

00:31:33,739 --> 00:31:37,759

don't want people to lose jobs of course

743

00:31:35,059 --> 00:31:40,339

but it might not be such a bad thing to

744

00:31:37,759 --> 00:31:42,769

kind of recalibrate the weight of the

745

00:31:40,339 --> 00:31:45,649

Arab Gulf in the region and if it does

746

00:31:42,769 --> 00:31:47,239

serve to restrain some of their more

747

00:31:45,649 --> 00:31:49,399

assertive activities we've seen in

748

00:31:47,239 --> 00:31:51,289

recent years in Libya and Yemen in

749

00:31:49,399 --> 00:31:53,509

particular which have been really

750

00:31:51,289 --> 00:31:56,779

fueling extremely devastating Wars if

751

00:31:53,509 --> 00:31:58,279

they kind of turn and focus back home to

752

00:31:56,779 --> 00:31:59,690

some of these accountability issues we

753

00:31:58,279 --> 00:32:01,459

were discussing earlier that could be a

754

00:31:59,690 --> 00:32:04,879

very good thing so I think I'll just end

755

00:32:01,459 --> 00:32:05,869

on that more positive note and I look

756

00:32:04,879 --> 00:32:10,309

forward to hearing for about others

757

00:32:05,869 --> 00:32:12,559

thank you thanks for the positivity at

758

00:32:10,309 --> 00:32:14,509

the end and some interesting points

759

00:32:12,559 --> 00:32:15,859

about the so-called soft power of the

760

00:32:14,509 --> 00:32:18,259

Gulf is you don't hear it very often

761

00:32:15,859 --> 00:32:20,569

actually in in these discussions so

762

00:32:18,259 --> 00:32:21,859

let's turn it over to dr. Aron for his

763

00:32:20,569 --> 00:32:24,229

comments and then we've already been

764

00:32:21,859 --> 00:32:26,679

getting some questions online so feel

765

00:32:24,229 --> 00:32:29,989

free to as you're watching everything

766

00:32:26,679 --> 00:32:33,259

anything comes to mind send it in we are

767

00:32:29,989 --> 00:32:34,940

our QA format and Dov and I kind of

768

00:32:33,259 --> 00:32:38,989

corral these and directly back at the

769

00:32:34,940 --> 00:32:41,959

panel all right when I think UCLA for

770

00:32:38,989 --> 00:32:45,739

including me in this panel it's great to

771

00:32:41,959 --> 00:32:47,839

be here Dahlia said it was hard to

772

00:32:45,739 --> 00:32:49,669

follow it excellent first presentation

773

00:32:47,839 --> 00:32:51,859

so I guess I'm left with the saying that

774

00:32:49,669 --> 00:32:54,799

everything was said but not everyone

775

00:32:51,859 --> 00:33:00,109

said it so I'll try to despite the

776

00:32:54,799 --> 00:33:03,469

challenges providing for another some

777

00:33:00,109 --> 00:33:04,190

other perspectives so stand by saying

778

00:33:03,469 --> 00:33:05,990

some maybe

779

00:33:04,190 --> 00:33:08,929

general terms I agree completely with

780

00:33:05,990 --> 00:33:11,389

Dalia this is too early I think to offer

781

00:33:08,929 --> 00:33:13,879

serious analysis of where we're heading

782

00:33:11,389 --> 00:33:16,070

for a number of reasons we know from

783

00:33:13,879 --> 00:33:17,899

massive other massive pandemics that

784

00:33:16,070 --> 00:33:18,679

were over in human history like the

785

00:33:17,899 --> 00:33:20,690

Black Death

786

00:33:18,679 --> 00:33:23,980

in the 14th century that some of the

787

00:33:20,690 --> 00:33:26,000

effects rolled over for decades I

788

00:33:23,980 --> 00:33:30,200

Reformation which occurred 100 years

789

00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:32,059

later some of its sources are founded in

790

00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:35,750

the pandemic I think this is especially

791

00:33:32,059 --> 00:33:38,690

acute in the Middle East is over 60% of

792

00:33:35,750 --> 00:33:40,700

population is younger than 30 and so the

793

00:33:38,690 --> 00:33:44,149

generational effect on the people who

794

00:33:40,700 --> 00:33:47,649

will be challenged by this will unfold

795

00:33:44,149 --> 00:33:50,179

for many years I think the second

796

00:33:47,649 --> 00:33:52,100

general observation is that we cannot

797

00:33:50,179 --> 00:33:54,559

talk about the general trend in the

798

00:33:52,100 --> 00:33:57,169

region if you look at the data even of

799

00:33:54,559 --> 00:34:01,220

the illness it varies in different

800

00:33:57,169 --> 00:34:04,370

countries initially it was the non Arab

801

00:34:01,220 --> 00:34:06,500

actors that took the most heat in Iran

802

00:34:04,370 --> 00:34:09,139

at some point half the cases of the

803

00:34:06,500 --> 00:34:12,260

region at some point here on a turkey

804

00:34:09,139 --> 00:34:14,329

Israel and in terms of power relations

805

00:34:12,260 --> 00:34:17,359

you could say the United States so the

806

00:34:14,329 --> 00:34:20,720

same paradigm we saw in in power

807

00:34:17,359 --> 00:34:24,500

projection which was with a lot of non

808

00:34:20,720 --> 00:34:29,389

Arab actors replicated itself in the

809

00:34:24,500 --> 00:34:30,950

illness at least at some point in the

810

00:34:29,389 --> 00:34:33,319

last the general comment is that this

811

00:34:30,950 --> 00:34:35,690

coincided with this massive crisis of

812

00:34:33,319 --> 00:34:38,599

oil Dalia mentioned that the oil in war

813

00:34:35,690 --> 00:34:40,849

but also the dramatic decline in demand

814

00:34:38,599 --> 00:34:44,149

which will of course puts extra pressure

815

00:34:40,849 --> 00:34:45,950

on the limited resources M I want to

816

00:34:44,149 --> 00:34:47,889

offer a three so having with all these

817

00:34:45,950 --> 00:34:50,270

qualifications I think there are three

818

00:34:47,889 --> 00:34:53,629

perspectives I propose to look at the

819

00:34:50,270 --> 00:34:55,909

how this crisis will and food first of

820

00:34:53,629 --> 00:34:57,770

all the old theme that middle-eastern

821

00:34:55,909 --> 00:35:00,560

scholars and political scientists are

822

00:34:57,770 --> 00:35:04,730

looking at that's the state the Arab and

823

00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:07,310

non-arab state it's an old attention

824

00:35:04,730 --> 00:35:10,010

between pan-arabism and the state state

825

00:35:07,310 --> 00:35:12,230

capacity and so it's fascinating to look

826

00:35:10,010 --> 00:35:15,980

how the state is an apparatus survive

827

00:35:12,230 --> 00:35:17,540

this it is of course a massive challenge

828

00:35:15,980 --> 00:35:20,240

state capacity but

829

00:35:17,540 --> 00:35:24,020

not perhaps in the traditional senses of

830

00:35:20,240 --> 00:35:26,810

a coercion power and military but rather

831

00:35:24,020 --> 00:35:29,770

on other aspects of status and such as

832

00:35:26,810 --> 00:35:34,340

the ability to deliver public health

833

00:35:29,770 --> 00:35:36,680

testing an even accurate information and

834

00:35:34,340 --> 00:35:38,960

so I think in a way for scholars who

835

00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:41,390

study the region who any educated person

836

00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:45,050

who is looking at it we are now offered

837

00:35:41,390 --> 00:35:47,360

a broader analytical tool to look at the

838

00:35:45,050 --> 00:35:49,550

role of the state that of course occurs

839

00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:52,760

in a broader global context the bastard

840

00:35:49,550 --> 00:35:55,010

or already introduced this we are at a

841

00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,930

moment I think globalization is going

842

00:35:55,010 --> 00:35:59,330

back and the state is a social

843

00:35:56,930 --> 00:36:03,080

institution is strengthening production

844

00:35:59,330 --> 00:36:07,670

we will be moving back it in stone and

845

00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:09,290

so the you have to review or analyze how

846

00:36:07,670 --> 00:36:10,880

states are dealing with this challenge

847

00:36:09,290 --> 00:36:13,250

or how they're benefiting from this

848

00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:15,950

global environment is going to be more a

849

00:36:13,250 --> 00:36:19,130

conducive I think for traditional state

850

00:36:15,950 --> 00:36:20,750

capacity within the state capacity

851

00:36:19,130 --> 00:36:23,150

discussion middle-eastern scholars look

852

00:36:20,750 --> 00:36:25,010

a lot at stake humanization security

853

00:36:23,150 --> 00:36:27,320

forces in the combination of

854

00:36:25,010 --> 00:36:33,290

technological abilities and repressive

855

00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:35,570

regimes led to further measures to

856

00:36:33,290 --> 00:36:37,640

control to offer social control even in

857

00:36:35,570 --> 00:36:39,560

countries that are more democratic like

858

00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,420

Israel in which suddenly turns out

859

00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:43,120

internal security services are not

860

00:36:41,420 --> 00:36:45,290

following through their cellphones

861

00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:48,320

citizens and whoever they interacted

862

00:36:45,290 --> 00:36:50,300

with weeks earlier and so in the short

863

00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,160

term I think the state as an institution

864

00:36:50,300 --> 00:36:54,620

is obviously getting stronger there's a

865

00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,720

range rallying around the flag it's the

866

00:36:54,620 --> 00:36:59,360

only institution that can maybe offer

867

00:36:56,720 --> 00:37:01,700

help but the in the long term there are

868

00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:04,340

significant challenges the economic

869

00:37:01,700 --> 00:37:06,440

crisis is going to affect the global

870

00:37:04,340 --> 00:37:10,250

economic crisis decline in demand for

871

00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:14,560

oil and the pressures and resources the

872

00:37:10,250 --> 00:37:17,120

man needed for the healthcare will

873

00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:20,090

present more economic challenges and of

874

00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:22,010

course resources economic resources a

875

00:37:20,090 --> 00:37:24,890

fundamental tool of the state to deal

876

00:37:22,010 --> 00:37:26,540

with these challenges it does offer a

877

00:37:24,890 --> 00:37:28,580

potential even in the long term

878

00:37:26,540 --> 00:37:31,840

strengthening if economy will further

879

00:37:28,580 --> 00:37:34,520

shudder as we saw in many

880

00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:37,070

states.the the solution is greater

881

00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,210

static born in the economy I think two

882

00:37:37,070 --> 00:37:42,490

countries are interesting in particular

883

00:37:38,210 --> 00:37:45,050

Lebanon and Iraq we saw a civil society

884

00:37:42,490 --> 00:37:47,570

response towards the state with

885

00:37:45,050 --> 00:37:49,670

demonstrations with new martyrs against

886

00:37:47,570 --> 00:37:51,590

the state this was somewhat halted with

887

00:37:49,670 --> 00:37:55,220

the crisis but would be very interesting

888

00:37:51,590 --> 00:37:57,590

to see how it rose so one perspective is

889

00:37:55,220 --> 00:38:01,340

the state the second perspective is the

890

00:37:57,590 --> 00:38:03,290

role of great powers one lens we are

891

00:38:01,340 --> 00:38:05,240

traditionally using at least in

892

00:38:03,290 --> 00:38:08,600

political science to look at the region

893

00:38:05,240 --> 00:38:10,790

is the role of external powers we were

894

00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:13,490

already in the process of an American

895

00:38:10,790 --> 00:38:14,870

withdrawal of sorts especially under the

896

00:38:13,490 --> 00:38:17,870

current administration that's less

897

00:38:14,870 --> 00:38:20,720

committed to global leadership but we do

898

00:38:17,870 --> 00:38:24,080

not still have another global competitor

899

00:38:20,720 --> 00:38:26,900

ala the Cold War but I agree with Dalia

900

00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:28,910

we are bound to see an American Chinese

901

00:38:26,900 --> 00:38:32,720

competition they were already early

902

00:38:28,910 --> 00:38:34,400

signs of that China is alia mentioned it

903

00:38:32,720 --> 00:38:37,220

was very eager to show it's dealing more

904

00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,960

effectively with the disease and the

905

00:38:37,220 --> 00:38:40,520

American incentive does important

906

00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:43,010

political incentive for the current

907

00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:45,320

administration to paint China is the

908

00:38:43,010 --> 00:38:47,060

villain in the story and we already saw

909

00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:49,670

American efforts including a visit of

910

00:38:47,060 --> 00:38:52,280

secretary compare last week in Israel to

911

00:38:49,670 --> 00:38:55,220

push the government disengage from some

912

00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:57,110

infrastructure projects it will China so

913

00:38:55,220 --> 00:38:59,090

it's a funny moment in which one world

914

00:38:57,110 --> 00:39:01,880

great power is in decline the other one

915

00:38:59,090 --> 00:39:04,160

is not there yet there's any signs of

916

00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:07,610

competition which made me drastically

917

00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:11,660

affected by a new administration come

918

00:39:07,610 --> 00:39:14,120

the election or generate 2021 I think

919

00:39:11,660 --> 00:39:17,240

one structural opportunity here is for

920

00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:20,560

regional actors to cooperate more if the

921

00:39:17,240 --> 00:39:23,530

great powers are not as dominant

922

00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:25,970

maybe the Sunni alliance the Israeli

923

00:39:23,530 --> 00:39:27,050

Sunni relationship will have an

924

00:39:25,970 --> 00:39:29,660

ever-greater

925

00:39:27,050 --> 00:39:31,580

opening although I should caution is a

926

00:39:29,660 --> 00:39:34,700

Dahlia said perhaps on the guard state

927

00:39:31,580 --> 00:39:36,770

would prefer bandwagon II against Iran I

928

00:39:34,700 --> 00:39:39,740

eat joining Iran rather than a

929

00:39:36,770 --> 00:39:41,420

confronting it so we have the state we

930

00:39:39,740 --> 00:39:43,400

have great powers and I think the third

931

00:39:41,420 --> 00:39:44,690

lens is of course conflicts in the

932

00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:48,859

region the

933

00:39:44,690 --> 00:39:51,020

short outlook I think for a short time

934

00:39:48,859 --> 00:39:53,060

the crisis froze some of the conflict

935

00:39:51,020 --> 00:39:55,790

because of the resources that had to be

936

00:39:53,060 --> 00:39:57,500

allocated or the a concern about the

937

00:39:55,790 --> 00:39:59,329

conflict there was definitely an

938

00:39:57,500 --> 00:40:02,359

opportunity to cooperate with so

939

00:39:59,329 --> 00:40:04,099

countries providing some assistance even

940

00:40:02,359 --> 00:40:04,670

in our own small corner of Israel

941

00:40:04,099 --> 00:40:06,950

Palestine

942

00:40:04,670 --> 00:40:09,020

it was much greater cooperation not

943

00:40:06,950 --> 00:40:11,300

directly even simply on health but on

944

00:40:09,020 --> 00:40:13,339

secondary issues like Israel an

945

00:40:11,300 --> 00:40:15,680

unprecedented way allowed Palestinian

946

00:40:13,339 --> 00:40:18,770

laborers remain in territorial Israel

947

00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:21,890

for the length of the crisis that we saw

948

00:40:18,770 --> 00:40:26,329

flights after first-ever a flight of we

949

00:40:21,890 --> 00:40:29,000

had got airline into Israel and some

950

00:40:26,329 --> 00:40:30,740

flights from Israel Sudan which no one

951

00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:33,319

took responsibility for but now we can

952

00:40:30,740 --> 00:40:36,650

see that something is happening however

953

00:40:33,319 --> 00:40:38,780

I have to join the pessimistic line we

954

00:40:36,650 --> 00:40:40,550

while it froze and while there were

955

00:40:38,780 --> 00:40:45,770

opportunities conflicts are still

956

00:40:40,550 --> 00:40:48,440

rolling there's a growing tension the

957

00:40:45,770 --> 00:40:51,410

Iranian front not only us UN but also

958

00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:55,099

Israel Iran the dual cyber attacks as

959

00:40:51,410 --> 00:40:57,589

well as signaling from Hezbollah that it

960

00:40:55,099 --> 00:41:01,369

may take a more active role the last few

961

00:40:57,589 --> 00:41:03,650

weeks it indicated including on actions

962

00:41:01,369 --> 00:41:07,280

on the ground that it's ready to be more

963

00:41:03,650 --> 00:41:09,920

aggressive to deal with Israeli attacks

964

00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:12,950

in Lebanon for example in a surprising

965

00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:15,020

incident is Bala cut three places in the

966

00:41:12,950 --> 00:41:17,210

fence between Israel and Lebanon

967

00:41:15,020 --> 00:41:20,359

indicating that it wanted it could go

968

00:41:17,210 --> 00:41:22,160

through the holes it created and then

969

00:41:20,359 --> 00:41:24,740

there already so these are figure the

970

00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:26,839

freelancer lenses state great powers

971

00:41:24,740 --> 00:41:29,270

conflict there were two questions about

972

00:41:26,839 --> 00:41:32,000

Israel Palestine would that be an

973

00:41:29,270 --> 00:41:34,730

appropriate moment to address them we'll

974

00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:37,339

come to the questions in in in a moment

975

00:41:34,730 --> 00:41:40,790

so but but please if you have some

976

00:41:37,339 --> 00:41:43,520

concluding remarks I think the

977

00:41:40,790 --> 00:41:45,650

conclusion is in the first few weeks of

978

00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:47,839

this shock there was a there was an

979

00:41:45,650 --> 00:41:50,390

opening for a shift I think in the

980

00:41:47,839 --> 00:41:52,579

consciousness I actually thought it

981

00:41:50,390 --> 00:41:55,329

reminded me a bit of the last days of

982

00:41:52,579 --> 00:41:57,519

the first Gulf War when suddenly

983

00:41:55,329 --> 00:41:58,959

American dominance in Iraq

984

00:41:57,519 --> 00:42:01,059

change the mind those people in the

985

00:41:58,959 --> 00:42:04,479

Middle East so there wasn't option for

986

00:42:01,059 --> 00:42:07,479

that but I think the stronger trends

987

00:42:04,479 --> 00:42:10,899

that were highlighted in my colleagues

988

00:42:07,479 --> 00:42:12,939

comments and in mine are stronger and

989

00:42:10,899 --> 00:42:14,679

then this potential not fully used

990

00:42:12,939 --> 00:42:19,479

opportunity change regional

991

00:42:14,679 --> 00:42:21,549

consciousness well thank you I want to

992

00:42:19,479 --> 00:42:23,019

thank all of our panelists ambassador

993

00:42:21,549 --> 00:42:25,479

Youssef dr. Tasaki

994

00:42:23,019 --> 00:42:28,269

and dr. Yvonne that was a really

995

00:42:25,479 --> 00:42:31,329

fascinating overviews of the impact of

996

00:42:28,269 --> 00:42:34,449

this pandemic on the region I think all

997

00:42:31,329 --> 00:42:37,209

three of you really made the necessary

998

00:42:34,449 --> 00:42:39,189

caveat that of course we're still in the

999

00:42:37,209 --> 00:42:41,949

early days of seeing the impact of this

1000

00:42:39,189 --> 00:42:45,969

pandemic and in fact its implications

1001

00:42:41,949 --> 00:42:48,429

will continue to affect the region for

1002

00:42:45,969 --> 00:42:50,259

many many years to come and so well this

1003

00:42:48,429 --> 00:42:52,809

discussion that we're having today is

1004

00:42:50,259 --> 00:42:55,989

just a very very early and initial look

1005

00:42:52,809 --> 00:42:57,909

at what will be what will continue to

1006

00:42:55,989 --> 00:43:00,219

have a massive and long-term potentially

1007

00:42:57,909 --> 00:43:01,779

transformative impact upon the region I

1008

00:43:00,219 --> 00:43:06,039

think the other thing that all three of

1009

00:43:01,779 --> 00:43:10,329

you agreed upon was the the way in which

1010

00:43:06,039 --> 00:43:14,229

the pandemic reinforces existing trends

1011

00:43:10,329 --> 00:43:16,149

exacerbates existing conflicts rather

1012

00:43:14,229 --> 00:43:19,269

than really fundamentally changing the

1013

00:43:16,149 --> 00:43:22,329

trajectory of the region's politics and

1014

00:43:19,269 --> 00:43:24,209

economics or humanitarian affairs and in

1015

00:43:22,329 --> 00:43:26,889

fact it's worsened it and so

1016

00:43:24,209 --> 00:43:30,159

unfortunately what was already a fairly

1017

00:43:26,889 --> 00:43:33,489

dire situation politically economically

1018

00:43:30,159 --> 00:43:35,409

and in humanitarian terms across the

1019

00:43:33,489 --> 00:43:38,169

region in the region at large has only

1020

00:43:35,409 --> 00:43:40,899

been made worse by the pandemic and as I

1021

00:43:38,169 --> 00:43:43,389

think was pointed out the worst may

1022

00:43:40,899 --> 00:43:45,809

still may be yet to come so this is

1023

00:43:43,389 --> 00:43:47,919

something of a depressing conversation

1024

00:43:45,809 --> 00:43:49,959

about the Middle East but then again

1025

00:43:47,919 --> 00:43:52,299

most many discussions about Middle East

1026

00:43:49,959 --> 00:43:54,459

politics tend to be somewhat depressing

1027

00:43:52,299 --> 00:43:57,369

so I suppose that's the that's the

1028

00:43:54,459 --> 00:43:59,979

drawback of our business let me now

1029

00:43:57,369 --> 00:44:02,039

we've we've been receiving questions and

1030

00:43:59,979 --> 00:44:04,539

that I want to encourage the audience

1031

00:44:02,039 --> 00:44:06,339

out there who are joining us from all

1032

00:44:04,539 --> 00:44:09,069

around the world to continue to send in

1033

00:44:06,339 --> 00:44:10,880

these questions and I will along with

1034

00:44:09,069 --> 00:44:13,730

Kevin try to put

1035

00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:16,970

pose as many as we can to to our

1036

00:44:13,730 --> 00:44:19,150

panelists I'll begin with just throwing

1037

00:44:16,970 --> 00:44:21,800

out a couple of questions that that

1038

00:44:19,150 --> 00:44:23,900

concerned you know really focused on on

1039

00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:27,050

points that were raised but maybe to get

1040

00:44:23,900 --> 00:44:28,720

into a bit more detail on on some of

1041

00:44:27,050 --> 00:44:32,590

these points so one of the questions

1042

00:44:28,720 --> 00:44:35,420

that have come up as concerning the

1043

00:44:32,590 --> 00:44:39,530

effect that the precipitous decline in

1044

00:44:35,420 --> 00:44:42,080

oil prices has had you've mentioned that

1045

00:44:39,530 --> 00:44:44,990

this is this is kind of compounded in a

1046

00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:47,210

way the the economic impact of the play

1047

00:44:44,990 --> 00:44:49,580

Bid 19 and the geostrategic

1048

00:44:47,210 --> 00:44:51,560

impact of this but perhaps you could you

1049

00:44:49,580 --> 00:44:56,060

might want to elaborate and in many ways

1050

00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:59,950

all three of you I I would say for the

1051

00:44:56,060 --> 00:45:01,340

Arab world clearly is it going to

1052

00:44:59,950 --> 00:45:04,810

[Music]

1053

00:45:01,340 --> 00:45:07,700

accelerate the desire and the attempt to

1054

00:45:04,810 --> 00:45:10,130

diversify their economies away from

1055

00:45:07,700 --> 00:45:14,600

being rentier economies based upon oil

1056

00:45:10,130 --> 00:45:17,090

revenue for Israel on the other hand

1057

00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:20,360

high oil prices scabies are an

1058

00:45:17,090 --> 00:45:22,070

opportunity to export natural gas and to

1059

00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:25,040

increase them to potentially gain great

1060

00:45:22,070 --> 00:45:26,240

amount of wealth and in an more regional

1061

00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,700

influence through its natural gas

1062

00:45:26,240 --> 00:45:30,700

imports does they decline in oil prices

1063

00:45:28,700 --> 00:45:33,380

and this is particularly for dr. Iran

1064

00:45:30,700 --> 00:45:37,670

will that impact Israel's ability to

1065

00:45:33,380 --> 00:45:40,160

export natural gas um what does what

1066

00:45:37,670 --> 00:45:42,620

does the declining oil prices mean for

1067

00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:44,210

regional relations particularly the

1068

00:45:42,620 --> 00:45:49,340

relationship between or the competition

1069

00:45:44,210 --> 00:45:50,840

between Saudi Arabia and Iran so that's

1070

00:45:49,340 --> 00:45:51,920

one question the other series of

1071

00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,650

questions that are coming and I'm gonna

1072

00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:56,900

add to this a little bit a concern

1073

00:45:54,650 --> 00:45:58,880

something that hasn't been mentioned as

1074

00:45:56,900 --> 00:46:01,430

yet but is looming on the political

1075

00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:04,430

horizon and that is Israel's potential

1076

00:46:01,430 --> 00:46:06,920

annexation of parts of the West Bank so

1077

00:46:04,430 --> 00:46:11,280

the question here and again feel free

1078

00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:15,480

and able to respond to this

1079

00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:17,340

does the likely annexation of parts of

1080

00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:21,090

the West Bank maybe starting as early as

1081

00:46:17,340 --> 00:46:23,609

July and they may be particularly for

1082

00:46:21,090 --> 00:46:26,340

ambassador Yusuf there's been a report

1083

00:46:23,609 --> 00:46:28,020

in the Israeli Pro Netanyahu newspaper

1084

00:46:26,340 --> 00:46:31,020

Israel hayom today which said that

1085

00:46:28,020 --> 00:46:33,570

Jordan the Saudis the UAE and others

1086

00:46:31,020 --> 00:46:35,130

will not oppose annexation or they may

1087

00:46:33,570 --> 00:46:37,440

stew so publicly but they're not really

1088

00:46:35,130 --> 00:46:40,290

going to take any steps to really do

1089

00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:43,650

anything about it does the impact of the

1090

00:46:40,290 --> 00:46:47,760

pandemic make it more or less likely for

1091

00:46:43,650 --> 00:46:49,770

Arab states to take strong actions in

1092

00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:52,230

response to annexation of the West Bank

1093

00:46:49,770 --> 00:46:54,060

in other words are they now in a weaker

1094

00:46:52,230 --> 00:46:56,430

position worried about their domestic

1095

00:46:54,060 --> 00:46:57,869

populations and therefore more

1096

00:46:56,430 --> 00:47:00,349

responsive to public opinion and maybe

1097

00:46:57,869 --> 00:47:02,599

more willing to take steps to counter

1098

00:47:00,349 --> 00:47:04,980

annexation of the West Bank or are they

1099

00:47:02,599 --> 00:47:07,950

more nervous and therefore less likely

1100

00:47:04,980 --> 00:47:11,730

to do anything similarly on the question

1101

00:47:07,950 --> 00:47:15,660

of annexation the Palestinian Authority

1102

00:47:11,730 --> 00:47:19,349

has just in response to the the threat

1103

00:47:15,660 --> 00:47:21,480

of annexation the PLO has ended formally

1104

00:47:19,349 --> 00:47:24,150

announced its ending its agreements with

1105

00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:27,030

Israel our in particularly security

1106

00:47:24,150 --> 00:47:30,150

cooperation with Israel is that going to

1107

00:47:27,030 --> 00:47:32,609

undermine the Palestinian Authority's

1108

00:47:30,150 --> 00:47:35,160

ability to respond to the corona virus

1109

00:47:32,609 --> 00:47:36,869

pandemic does what is the connection

1110

00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,940

between these agreements with Israel

1111

00:47:36,869 --> 00:47:42,450

cooperation with Israel and the PA

1112

00:47:38,940 --> 00:47:44,430

ability to respond to their corona virus

1113

00:47:42,450 --> 00:47:47,250

pandemic and finally on the impact of

1114

00:47:44,430 --> 00:47:50,869

annexation for terrorist organizations

1115

00:47:47,250 --> 00:47:53,040

operating in the region is it likely to

1116

00:47:50,869 --> 00:47:55,080

increase their willingness to carry out

1117

00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:57,900

attacks both within the region and

1118

00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:59,250

further afield your Western countries so

1119

00:47:57,900 --> 00:48:02,580

there's a lot of questions feel free to

1120

00:47:59,250 --> 00:48:04,740

answer jack you know whatever most

1121

00:48:02,580 --> 00:48:06,450

interest you in those questions and

1122

00:48:04,740 --> 00:48:07,980

perhaps I'll start with Ambassador Yusuf

1123

00:48:06,450 --> 00:48:11,270

and again we'll work around the three

1124

00:48:07,980 --> 00:48:11,270

panelists in same order

1125

00:48:12,059 --> 00:48:17,579

very much let me let me try to respond

1126

00:48:15,900 --> 00:48:22,170

to the question in relation to an

1127

00:48:17,579 --> 00:48:26,339

accession I think the this issue is

1128

00:48:22,170 --> 00:48:29,099

make-or-break in relation to how the

1129

00:48:26,339 --> 00:48:31,019

possibility of establishing a two-state

1130

00:48:29,099 --> 00:48:34,109

solution and there are many who believe

1131

00:48:31,019 --> 00:48:36,269

that this would be the last nail in the

1132

00:48:34,109 --> 00:48:39,900

coffin of the two-state solution so this

1133

00:48:36,269 --> 00:48:44,459

is why the response in relation to this

1134

00:48:39,900 --> 00:48:45,989

issue will be huge of course different

1135

00:48:44,459 --> 00:48:48,119

Arab countries are dealing with this

1136

00:48:45,989 --> 00:48:49,499

issue in in different ways the

1137

00:48:48,119 --> 00:48:53,150

Palestinians have announced that they

1138

00:48:49,499 --> 00:48:56,130

will stop coordination and and so on and

1139

00:48:53,150 --> 00:48:58,380

Jordan the king of talk indicated very

1140

00:48:56,130 --> 00:49:01,259

clearly that this will put Israel and

1141

00:48:58,380 --> 00:49:02,849

Jordan on a confrontation path because

1142

00:49:01,259 --> 00:49:05,279

Jordan would be the one that would be

1143

00:49:02,849 --> 00:49:07,380

most affected by by this development

1144

00:49:05,279 --> 00:49:09,989

because of the annexation of the Jordan

1145

00:49:07,380 --> 00:49:11,999

Valley in particular but because of the

1146

00:49:09,989 --> 00:49:14,849

situation in relation to that a

1147

00:49:11,999 --> 00:49:16,799

two-state solution and I think the

1148

00:49:14,849 --> 00:49:19,130

message has reached Israel quite clearly

1149

00:49:16,799 --> 00:49:20,999

that this will have a huge impact but

1150

00:49:19,130 --> 00:49:23,969

unfortunately as well as dealing with

1151

00:49:20,999 --> 00:49:26,900

this issue in accordance to its internal

1152

00:49:23,969 --> 00:49:30,179

situation and the situation regarding

1153

00:49:26,900 --> 00:49:32,009

the Prime Minister Netanyahu and how

1154

00:49:30,179 --> 00:49:37,619

he's going to deal with his child and so

1155

00:49:32,009 --> 00:49:39,959

so will it will it result in more

1156

00:49:37,619 --> 00:49:43,170

excessive Messam absolutely because

1157

00:49:39,959 --> 00:49:44,880

because the argument that those who have

1158

00:49:43,170 --> 00:49:46,890

been advocating for peace for the last

1159

00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:49,079

20-something years have been saying no

1160

00:49:46,890 --> 00:49:51,660

we will reach the two-state solution you

1161

00:49:49,079 --> 00:49:54,179

will achieve peace and so on so now even

1162

00:49:51,660 --> 00:49:56,910

those who have been advocating for for

1163

00:49:54,179 --> 00:50:02,189

peaceful for decades of saying we failed

1164

00:49:56,910 --> 00:50:04,019

and we don't have a solution and and so

1165

00:50:02,189 --> 00:50:07,619

it will become difficult so this gives

1166

00:50:04,019 --> 00:50:10,619

of course ammunition for all those who

1167

00:50:07,619 --> 00:50:14,369

are arguing for using violence using

1168

00:50:10,619 --> 00:50:16,410

that peace did it work so we will see

1169

00:50:14,369 --> 00:50:18,809

how things ever Jordan also is saying

1170

00:50:16,410 --> 00:50:20,999

that this is a violation of the peace

1171

00:50:18,809 --> 00:50:23,489

agreement between Israel and Jordan

1172

00:50:20,999 --> 00:50:25,010

because Israel and Jordan when they had

1173

00:50:23,489 --> 00:50:27,170

their it

1174

00:50:25,010 --> 00:50:29,990

the borders will not be eliminated

1175

00:50:27,170 --> 00:50:32,660

between the West Bank and Jordan now if

1176

00:50:29,990 --> 00:50:33,800

Israel annexes descend and considers as

1177

00:50:32,660 --> 00:50:35,960

part of his land

1178

00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:39,920

Jordan would never really need borders

1179

00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:41,810

between the West Bank Android so so we

1180

00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:43,370

will see escalation of course at the

1181

00:50:41,810 --> 00:50:44,990

same time there are countries in the

1182

00:50:43,370 --> 00:50:46,730

region that do not want to anger the

1183

00:50:44,990 --> 00:50:49,730

United States at this point in time and

1184

00:50:46,730 --> 00:50:51,740

they are anticipating to see waiting to

1185

00:50:49,730 --> 00:50:54,290

see what the outcome of the elections

1186

00:50:51,740 --> 00:50:58,550

would be and so on so this will be a

1187

00:50:54,290 --> 00:51:02,500

situation where I expect escalation for

1188

00:50:58,550 --> 00:51:02,500

the few weeks and months took

1189

00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:12,710

yes yes okay um yeah well I guess I'll

1190

00:51:09,710 --> 00:51:15,170

start with annexation it's just to

1191

00:51:12,710 --> 00:51:18,640

follow up on that I think the pandemic

1192

00:51:15,170 --> 00:51:21,350

is probably less of a factor then the

1193

00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:24,650

than the US factor and the enabling

1194

00:51:21,350 --> 00:51:27,560

environment that the US has created

1195

00:51:24,650 --> 00:51:29,450

through the Trump plan which could be

1196

00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:32,720

read as an annexation plan of sorts

1197

00:51:29,450 --> 00:51:34,040

itself so what's interesting is that to

1198

00:51:32,720 --> 00:51:36,740

the extent that we're going to see any

1199

00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:39,590

constraints on Netanyahu for annexation

1200

00:51:36,740 --> 00:51:41,570

I would think they would come from

1201

00:51:39,590 --> 00:51:43,700

within Israel itself particularly its

1202

00:51:41,570 --> 00:51:45,560

defense establishment we've had seeing

1203

00:51:43,700 --> 00:51:48,710

just this week major figures in Israel

1204

00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:50,090

who I'm sure will elaborate because of

1205

00:51:48,710 --> 00:51:52,220

the Jordan factor and other national

1206

00:51:50,090 --> 00:51:54,950

security considerations vehemently

1207

00:51:52,220 --> 00:51:58,010

arguing against annexation as a real

1208

00:51:54,950 --> 00:52:00,650

threat to Israel's security but I think

1209

00:51:58,010 --> 00:52:02,720

the dilemma with a broader Arab world is

1210

00:52:00,650 --> 00:52:04,340

that and this is one of those arguments

1211

00:52:02,720 --> 00:52:05,800

of you know these were trends that were

1212

00:52:04,340 --> 00:52:07,880

there before the pandemic

1213

00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:10,520

unfortunately the Palestinian conflict

1214

00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:12,530

is not really on the radar in the rate

1215

00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:15,020

region anymore when you have civil wars

1216

00:52:12,530 --> 00:52:17,720

of the magnitude of Syria and Yemen and

1217

00:52:15,020 --> 00:52:20,900

even Libya is the Palestinian conflict

1218

00:52:17,720 --> 00:52:23,180

is not looking like the front and center

1219

00:52:20,900 --> 00:52:25,310

burning issue now of course emotionally

1220

00:52:23,180 --> 00:52:28,760

it still resonates in the region among

1221

00:52:25,310 --> 00:52:31,100

the republics of course but these Gulf

1222

00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:32,420

leaders have made it very clear they've

1223

00:52:31,100 --> 00:52:34,070

they've turned in a different direction

1224

00:52:32,420 --> 00:52:35,360

and they were not really paying a cost

1225

00:52:34,070 --> 00:52:37,940

for it again they have this quite

1226

00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:40,250

enabling environment the dilemma though

1227

00:52:37,940 --> 00:52:41,870

of course is that Israel could make

1228

00:52:40,250 --> 00:52:43,310

peace with these Arab states the problem

1229

00:52:41,870 --> 00:52:44,780

is it's not really it were with the Arab

1230

00:52:43,310 --> 00:52:46,700

world anymore it's been a long time

1231

00:52:44,780 --> 00:52:48,080

since the Israel has faced a real threat

1232

00:52:46,700 --> 00:52:50,150

for many surrounding Arab states

1233

00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:52,190

actually relations with Egypt are closer

1234

00:52:50,150 --> 00:52:54,590

than ever the Gulf State normalization

1235

00:52:52,190 --> 00:52:56,270

phenomenon has been ongoing it's no big

1236

00:52:54,590 --> 00:52:57,950

surprise even though every day it seems

1237

00:52:56,270 --> 00:53:00,170

to be a new headline acting as if this

1238

00:52:57,950 --> 00:53:03,140

is some big you know a momentous event

1239

00:53:00,170 --> 00:53:05,300

it's really not big news so it's not

1240

00:53:03,140 --> 00:53:06,590

earth-shattering for Israel even to make

1241

00:53:05,300 --> 00:53:08,810

peace with certainly important to

1242

00:53:06,590 --> 00:53:10,640

symbolically to Israelis they want to be

1243

00:53:08,810 --> 00:53:12,200

accepted in the region but it's not

1244

00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,030

earth-shattering because Israel isn't at

1245

00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:16,550

war with Saudi Arabia it's at war with

1246

00:53:14,030 --> 00:53:17,570

Hezbollah it's at war with Iran these

1247

00:53:16,550 --> 00:53:19,580

are the conflicts that

1248

00:53:17,570 --> 00:53:22,220

to be solved and ultimately the

1249

00:53:19,580 --> 00:53:24,080

Palestinians and Israelis live on one

1250

00:53:22,220 --> 00:53:26,080

piece of land so they can make all the

1251

00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:28,040

peace they want with the Arab world but

1252

00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:31,610

ultimately that's not going to resolve

1253

00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:33,410

the conflict that's right next door and

1254

00:53:31,610 --> 00:53:36,290

within their country especially if they

1255

00:53:33,410 --> 00:53:37,970

MX so I agree with the Ambassador I

1256

00:53:36,290 --> 00:53:39,920

think the trajectory is not looking good

1257

00:53:37,970 --> 00:53:43,010

the two-state solution wasn't looking

1258

00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:45,410

very viable before the pandemic and with

1259

00:53:43,010 --> 00:53:47,930

Netanyahu capitalizing on the pandemic

1260

00:53:45,410 --> 00:53:50,540

in the election consolidating this

1261

00:53:47,930 --> 00:53:53,030

coalition that was probably unthinkable

1262

00:53:50,540 --> 00:53:56,030

before that Bennigan's would succumb to

1263

00:53:53,030 --> 00:53:58,160

the conditions he did really is making

1264

00:53:56,030 --> 00:53:59,450

the two-state solution looking like it's

1265

00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:01,910

hanging on a thread more than it ever

1266

00:53:59,450 --> 00:54:04,430

has been and just briefly on the oils

1267

00:54:01,910 --> 00:54:06,380

decline I think I alluded to our ready i

1268

00:54:04,430 --> 00:54:08,620

it's gonna have an impact across the

1269

00:54:06,380 --> 00:54:11,210

region again combined with the pandemic

1270

00:54:08,620 --> 00:54:13,670

not just in the oil-rich States but all

1271

00:54:11,210 --> 00:54:15,290

those surrounding states and in Jordan

1272

00:54:13,670 --> 00:54:17,750

and Egypt and other economies where

1273

00:54:15,290 --> 00:54:20,540

workers rely on the remittances they get

1274

00:54:17,750 --> 00:54:21,770

from the oil Gulf economies but what I

1275

00:54:20,540 --> 00:54:24,710

think is a really really interesting

1276

00:54:21,770 --> 00:54:26,480

space to watch as I said is the social

1277

00:54:24,710 --> 00:54:29,300

and political impact it will have within

1278

00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:31,790

the Gulf states themselves this rentier

1279

00:54:29,300 --> 00:54:33,620

state model already wasn't looking

1280

00:54:31,790 --> 00:54:35,300

sustainable they were already trying to

1281

00:54:33,620 --> 00:54:37,040

diversify economies because they knew

1282

00:54:35,300 --> 00:54:40,280

they couldn't buy off you know domestic

1283

00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:43,640

discontent forever but now it's really

1284

00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:45,290

now it's it's an existential crisis and

1285

00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:46,790

and they're going to have to have a

1286

00:54:45,290 --> 00:54:50,480

different relationship with their

1287

00:54:46,790 --> 00:54:53,570

population to survive frankly so I think

1288

00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:55,400

that is going to be potentially not just

1289

00:54:53,570 --> 00:54:58,730

an economic impact but a political

1290

00:54:55,400 --> 00:55:02,000

impact of what these states look like in

1291

00:54:58,730 --> 00:55:03,650

the months and years to come on Saudi

1292

00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:06,140

Iran I think that that there's other

1293

00:55:03,650 --> 00:55:07,880

other factors that are kind of more more

1294

00:55:06,140 --> 00:55:11,360

at play in terms of whether things ramp

1295

00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:13,610

up or down unfortunately you know hopes

1296

00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:16,160

that you know maybe the oil price plunge

1297

00:55:13,610 --> 00:55:18,170

with a pandemic would lead let's say the

1298

00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,970

Saudis to purchase less arms they were

1299

00:55:18,170 --> 00:55:22,310

the fifth largest arms purchaser in the

1300

00:55:19,970 --> 00:55:23,840

world think they purchased over sixty

1301

00:55:22,310 --> 00:55:26,240

billion just last year so there could be

1302

00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:27,950

hopes that you know scaling back and

1303

00:55:26,240 --> 00:55:30,410

arms purchases in the in the face of

1304

00:55:27,950 --> 00:55:31,190

these other pressures would would maybe

1305

00:55:30,410 --> 00:55:34,130

lead to the

1306

00:55:31,190 --> 00:55:35,780

more de-escalation with with Iran and

1307

00:55:34,130 --> 00:55:37,910

the Iranians face similar constraints

1308

00:55:35,780 --> 00:55:40,400

the problem is these regional wars are

1309

00:55:37,910 --> 00:55:42,530

not that costly to fuel if there's a

1310

00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:44,420

desire to do so so I think the real

1311

00:55:42,530 --> 00:55:46,490

question is political where will where

1312

00:55:44,420 --> 00:55:49,359

do these leaders in this region want to

1313

00:55:46,490 --> 00:55:54,140

take their countries and their people

1314

00:55:49,359 --> 00:55:56,089

thank you dr. Aron yeah let me add to

1315

00:55:54,140 --> 00:55:59,240

the next session one angle which I think

1316

00:55:56,089 --> 00:56:02,000

goes beyond simply Israel Palestine

1317

00:55:59,240 --> 00:56:04,099

that's the role of the EU seen from the

1318

00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:06,710

region the EU is an important actor in

1319

00:56:04,099 --> 00:56:08,569

support in moderating a conflicts

1320

00:56:06,710 --> 00:56:11,000

moderating Israeli actions in the West

1321

00:56:08,569 --> 00:56:13,040

Bank supporting civil society

1322

00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:17,329

particularly in North Africa and I think

1323

00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:19,339

one side effect of the crisis is

1324

00:56:17,329 --> 00:56:22,430

weakening of the European Union

1325

00:56:19,339 --> 00:56:25,550

consequently its ability to serve prism

1326

00:56:22,430 --> 00:56:28,160

moderating a power over half of Israel's

1327

00:56:25,550 --> 00:56:30,050

exports it goes to the EU and if there

1328

00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:34,220

was a stronger EU that took a stronger

1329

00:56:30,050 --> 00:56:36,950

position calculations in Jerusalem and

1330

00:56:34,220 --> 00:56:38,750

this weakness I'm afraid is not limited

1331

00:56:36,950 --> 00:56:42,200

only to moderating this conflict but

1332

00:56:38,750 --> 00:56:43,819

other aspects of the region may be

1333

00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:46,400

looking for North America we don't think

1334

00:56:43,819 --> 00:56:47,930

about it a match but in some corners

1335

00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:50,810

what the Europeans are doing is quite

1336

00:56:47,930 --> 00:56:52,760

significant I think that this decision

1337

00:56:50,810 --> 00:56:55,339

about the annexation specifically will

1338

00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:56,450

be some internal negotiation as Dalia

1339

00:56:55,339 --> 00:56:58,760

mentioned between the security

1340

00:56:56,450 --> 00:57:01,430

establishment the Prime Minister who

1341

00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:03,890

feels confident and desperate because of

1342

00:57:01,430 --> 00:57:06,140

the trial and in this discussion the

1343

00:57:03,890 --> 00:57:08,450

Arab position will play an important

1344

00:57:06,140 --> 00:57:10,040

role for the security establishment it's

1345

00:57:08,450 --> 00:57:12,079

important to note that contrary to

1346

00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:13,910

previous debates like the one we had

1347

00:57:12,079 --> 00:57:16,609

between the security establishment and

1348

00:57:13,910 --> 00:57:20,119

Prime Minister Netanyahu over Iran we

1349

00:57:16,609 --> 00:57:22,760

have a stronger set weaker very set of

1350

00:57:20,119 --> 00:57:25,099

military insecurity leaders head of the

1351

00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:29,450

Mossad is very close to Nathan near for

1352

00:57:25,099 --> 00:57:31,369

probably won't challenging and so not

1353

00:57:29,450 --> 00:57:32,690

sure how much we can we can count on

1354

00:57:31,369 --> 00:57:35,599

this is a moderating element

1355

00:57:32,690 --> 00:57:37,550

another potential unexpected development

1356

00:57:35,599 --> 00:57:39,470

is Israel hates to be in a situation it

1357

00:57:37,550 --> 00:57:42,500

deals with to France it is further

1358

00:57:39,470 --> 00:57:44,780

escalation which is Bala and Iran this

1359

00:57:42,500 --> 00:57:48,490

may provide some freezing

1360

00:57:44,780 --> 00:57:51,290

my element to this intention to annex

1361

00:57:48,490 --> 00:57:53,090

the second issue was what happens if

1362

00:57:51,290 --> 00:57:55,700

Israel in the Palestine Authority

1363

00:57:53,090 --> 00:57:58,430

stop cooperating and how would that

1364

00:57:55,700 --> 00:58:00,350

affect humanitarian effect I say a few

1365

00:57:58,430 --> 00:58:02,780

things I think first of all the PA is

1366

00:58:00,350 --> 00:58:05,780

pretty much dependent on Israel is an

1367

00:58:02,780 --> 00:58:08,450

institution not again not only directly

1368

00:58:05,780 --> 00:58:11,540

in health issues but economics access to

1369

00:58:08,450 --> 00:58:14,330

labor and so on I should also note that

1370

00:58:11,540 --> 00:58:16,640

as I said this number of times about

1371

00:58:14,330 --> 00:58:18,770

ending agreements and I think we have to

1372

00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:21,590

wait and see the statement he made

1373

00:58:18,770 --> 00:58:23,870

recently is not enough if third

1374

00:58:21,590 --> 00:58:25,730

component is that Israelis who are

1375

00:58:23,870 --> 00:58:27,980

engaged in the West Bank and I should

1376

00:58:25,730 --> 00:58:29,720

also say Gaza in the security

1377

00:58:27,980 --> 00:58:32,630

establishment think about it already in

1378

00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:35,420

monetary terms so there isn't a constant

1379

00:58:32,630 --> 00:58:37,760

awareness that this is not only a

1380

00:58:35,420 --> 00:58:40,010

conflictual political situation but the

1381

00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,870

situation that can end up is a

1382

00:58:40,010 --> 00:58:43,730

humanitarian challenge directly to

1383

00:58:41,870 --> 00:58:45,650

Israel the PA collapses and there's a

1384

00:58:43,730 --> 00:58:48,050

humanitarian disaster is where we have

1385

00:58:45,650 --> 00:58:49,850

to fail or it it's maybe symbolic that

1386

00:58:48,050 --> 00:58:52,400

the commanding officer of home command

1387

00:58:49,850 --> 00:58:55,970

dealt with the meter is response to

1388

00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:57,440

Corona in Israel is going to be very

1389

00:58:55,970 --> 00:58:59,180

soon the commanding officer of Central

1390

00:58:57,440 --> 00:58:59,960

Command which is the command responsible

1391

00:58:59,180 --> 00:59:01,550

for the West Bank

1392

00:58:59,960 --> 00:59:03,110

so the same general that dealt with

1393

00:59:01,550 --> 00:59:05,090

coralline Israel is not going to be

1394

00:59:03,110 --> 00:59:07,430

responsible for the West Bank

1395

00:59:05,090 --> 00:59:09,440

it's very moderate and smart general so

1396

00:59:07,430 --> 00:59:12,400

as much as we can pin our hopes on

1397

00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:15,140

individuals is at least some hope there

1398

00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:19,760

the third question that dome raised was

1399

00:59:15,140 --> 00:59:22,190

about energy it should be noted that

1400

00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:24,500

Israeli efforts to export energy to

1401

00:59:22,190 --> 00:59:26,240

Europe especially well ready although

1402

00:59:24,500 --> 00:59:29,060

although there were many statements it

1403

00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:30,680

faces significant difficulties for

1404

00:59:29,060 --> 00:59:33,470

example to recognize a massive pipeline

1405

00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:35,540

and we were not close to major exports

1406

00:59:33,470 --> 00:59:38,060

it will weaken Israel's potential

1407

00:59:35,540 --> 00:59:41,720

leverage on Egypt and Jordan to country

1408

00:59:38,060 --> 00:59:44,960

see dad's export some gas - and it will

1409

00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:47,860

weaken early mechanisms of energy

1410

00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:50,750

cooperation especially the Egyptian led

1411

00:59:47,860 --> 00:59:53,240

Mediterranean a forum for gas which was

1412

00:59:50,750 --> 00:59:55,070

a early sign of an institutional

1413

00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:57,380

regional arrangement around energy

1414

00:59:55,070 --> 00:59:58,490

what's energy it becomes less important

1415

00:59:57,380 --> 01:00:00,340

or gas

1416

00:59:58,490 --> 01:00:02,990

what and there'll be less incentive

1417

01:00:00,340 --> 01:00:05,420

develop this cooperation mechanism and

1418

01:00:02,990 --> 01:00:07,760

again an encore on a virus development

1419

01:00:05,420 --> 01:00:09,290

is the most important that's a Turkey's

1420

01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:11,690

assertiveness in the eastern

1421

01:00:09,290 --> 01:00:14,680

Mediterranean and the challenges it goes

1422

01:00:11,690 --> 01:00:19,300

to energy the will the delivery and

1423

01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:19,300

development especially along Cyprus

1424

01:00:21,229 --> 01:00:25,950

well thank you for those for that really

1425

01:00:24,029 --> 01:00:28,619

interesting answers we've got some more

1426

01:00:25,950 --> 01:00:29,609

questions coming in and I'm conscious of

1427

01:00:28,619 --> 01:00:32,999

the fact that we didn't have a great

1428

01:00:29,609 --> 01:00:35,849

amount of time so I'm gonna just again

1429

01:00:32,999 --> 01:00:38,249

pose a broad question that has come in

1430

01:00:35,849 --> 01:00:41,549

in different ways two or three of you

1431

01:00:38,249 --> 01:00:43,799

and then and then we'll we'll see how

1432

01:00:41,549 --> 01:00:45,900

much time we have left yes when we so

1433

01:00:43,799 --> 01:00:47,549

far the picture that you painted and I

1434

01:00:45,900 --> 01:00:49,289

think it's an accurate picture has been

1435

01:00:47,549 --> 01:00:53,789

a pretty bleak one I think we could all

1436

01:00:49,289 --> 01:00:58,559

say that are there any examples of

1437

01:00:53,789 --> 01:01:00,779

cooperation occurring that are that we

1438

01:00:58,559 --> 01:01:01,979

can see that board in that in response

1439

01:01:00,779 --> 01:01:04,729

to this pandemic whether it's

1440

01:01:01,979 --> 01:01:07,559

cooperation of the interstate level

1441

01:01:04,729 --> 01:01:10,190

where there was mention made of greater

1442

01:01:07,559 --> 01:01:13,200

cooperation within the GCC for example

1443

01:01:10,190 --> 01:01:16,170

but also cooperation societally maybe

1444

01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:19,410

between different sectors or of these

1445

01:01:16,170 --> 01:01:21,150

domestic societies are we seeing actors

1446

01:01:19,410 --> 01:01:23,579

come together I mean some of these

1447

01:01:21,150 --> 01:01:28,009

countries have long been driven by

1448

01:01:23,579 --> 01:01:30,779

internal it divides sectarian divides

1449

01:01:28,009 --> 01:01:33,150

for example Lebanon is is one that comes

1450

01:01:30,779 --> 01:01:35,900

obviously to mind is the is the impact

1451

01:01:33,150 --> 01:01:38,940

of this crisis resulting or leading to

1452

01:01:35,900 --> 01:01:41,400

some surprising amounts of cooperation

1453

01:01:38,940 --> 01:01:47,009

or unity where there was previously

1454

01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:50,069

division and discord and this again feel

1455

01:01:47,009 --> 01:01:52,079

free to bring in any specific country we

1456

01:01:50,069 --> 01:01:54,450

hadn't talked to about the use of here

1457

01:01:52,079 --> 01:01:56,759

you're obviously formid Egypt so I'm

1458

01:01:54,450 --> 01:01:58,979

wondering you know what we're seeing how

1459

01:01:56,759 --> 01:02:00,569

is this impacting Egypt both

1460

01:01:58,979 --> 01:02:04,410

domestically but also Egypt's

1461

01:02:00,569 --> 01:02:06,539

cooperation for example with Sudan or

1462

01:02:04,410 --> 01:02:08,900

with Israel or with its with its

1463

01:02:06,539 --> 01:02:08,900

neighbors

1464

01:02:09,820 --> 01:02:16,780

well unfortunately what we have seen

1465

01:02:13,630 --> 01:02:20,470

globally is that the response to the

1466

01:02:16,780 --> 01:02:24,070

pandemic was national and not internet

1467

01:02:20,470 --> 01:02:27,100

and what we have seen also globally that

1468

01:02:24,070 --> 01:02:30,460

country we have competing for all kinds

1469

01:02:27,100 --> 01:02:33,550

of medical equipment even masks and so

1470

01:02:30,460 --> 01:02:35,290

on so this was the global attitude

1471

01:02:33,550 --> 01:02:40,660

because of the shortage of medical

1472

01:02:35,290 --> 01:02:43,990

supply and so on so it wasn't there was

1473

01:02:40,660 --> 01:02:45,910

little areas for for cooperation but

1474

01:02:43,990 --> 01:02:47,230

having said that I also gave a number of

1475

01:02:45,910 --> 01:02:51,910

examples where there was cooperation

1476

01:02:47,230 --> 01:02:53,910

including Gulf assistance to Iran

1477

01:02:51,910 --> 01:02:55,840

[Music]

1478

01:02:53,910 --> 01:02:58,600

israeli-palestinian cooperation and so

1479

01:02:55,840 --> 01:03:01,180

on so there were some bright spots but

1480

01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:04,810

the problem is that these price bright

1481

01:03:01,180 --> 01:03:08,280

spots are not enough to make the

1482

01:03:04,810 --> 01:03:12,150

necessary requirement for a

1483

01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:15,460

transformation for a new beginning for

1484

01:03:12,150 --> 01:03:17,890

you know I think Dalia was talking about

1485

01:03:15,460 --> 01:03:20,500

some of the for us of the positive

1486

01:03:17,890 --> 01:03:22,720

elements in relation to you know the

1487

01:03:20,500 --> 01:03:29,170

silver lining that we may see that may

1488

01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:30,940

have a positive outcome and so on and I

1489

01:03:29,170 --> 01:03:34,120

agree with that but the government that

1490

01:03:30,940 --> 01:03:35,800

is this positive dimension in relation

1491

01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:37,840

to the big picture that you referred to

1492

01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:41,770

and I think the three of us refer to

1493

01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:44,890

it's not a minimal so yes there has been

1494

01:03:41,770 --> 01:03:47,230

cooperation and I think cooperation

1495

01:03:44,890 --> 01:03:50,320

would probably increase as the severity

1496

01:03:47,230 --> 01:03:53,140

of the pandemic declines but but I don't

1497

01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:56,890

think that we can we can be optimistic

1498

01:03:53,140 --> 01:03:58,870

and see you know light at the end of the

1499

01:03:56,890 --> 01:04:00,910

tunnel in relation to a number of

1500

01:03:58,870 --> 01:04:04,620

elements pertaining to the situation and

1501

01:04:00,910 --> 01:04:04,620

division as a result of dependent

1502

01:04:05,710 --> 01:04:11,740

how'd you tell her yeah not much to add

1503

01:04:09,070 --> 01:04:13,180

I agree I think that I also the two

1504

01:04:11,740 --> 01:04:14,800

examples I thought of were already

1505

01:04:13,180 --> 01:04:17,740

mentioned I think I even mentioned

1506

01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:20,440

myself as well the UAE shipment to Iran

1507

01:04:17,740 --> 01:04:23,349

the the dialogue there that we have not

1508

01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:25,540

seen again I think most of this so far

1509

01:04:23,349 --> 01:04:27,369

is tactical not strategic and that's

1510

01:04:25,540 --> 01:04:29,619

what I think the Ambassador is referring

1511

01:04:27,369 --> 01:04:33,490

to it's just not clear this can lead to

1512

01:04:29,619 --> 01:04:36,250

a long-term shift the PA Israeli

1513

01:04:33,490 --> 01:04:38,800

cooperation was interesting just Israel

1514

01:04:36,250 --> 01:04:40,750

owned 200 million dollars to the PA to

1515

01:04:38,800 --> 01:04:44,380

make up for tax revenue it lost in the

1516

01:04:40,750 --> 01:04:48,359

virus all well and good your sinks you

1517

01:04:44,380 --> 01:04:51,099

know stories of Gaza garment makers

1518

01:04:48,359 --> 01:04:53,859

shipping masts and protective gear to

1519

01:04:51,099 --> 01:04:55,960

Israel instead of graffiti being

1520

01:04:53,859 --> 01:04:58,500

anti-israel on the walls you're seeing

1521

01:04:55,960 --> 01:05:01,210

you know Cove in 19 graffiti I mean

1522

01:04:58,500 --> 01:05:03,400

that's you know I guess progress the

1523

01:05:01,210 --> 01:05:04,810

problem is it only goes so far when

1524

01:05:03,400 --> 01:05:07,480

you're dealing with the specter of

1525

01:05:04,810 --> 01:05:09,580

Israel potentially indexing the West

1526

01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:11,560

Bank nearly the entire West Bank in the

1527

01:05:09,580 --> 01:05:14,470

Jordan Valley which will completely

1528

01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:16,599

demolish any potential openings that

1529

01:05:14,470 --> 01:05:18,130

might have existed so I think that's the

1530

01:05:16,599 --> 01:05:19,960

problem we're facing is that they're

1531

01:05:18,130 --> 01:05:21,670

interesting tactical shifts but we're

1532

01:05:19,960 --> 01:05:23,800

not seeing a change in the strategic

1533

01:05:21,670 --> 01:05:26,440

directory one last point we didn't raise

1534

01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:28,330

that I would just bring in here is you

1535

01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:29,830

know and this does take political will

1536

01:05:28,330 --> 01:05:32,500

not just from the region but from

1537

01:05:29,830 --> 01:05:33,940

outside working with the region and

1538

01:05:32,500 --> 01:05:36,640

probably won't be coming from the US

1539

01:05:33,940 --> 01:05:38,290

right now but but it could and and along

1540

01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:40,660

with other international partners you're

1541

01:05:38,290 --> 01:05:43,060

seeing a lot more talk and insecurity

1542

01:05:40,660 --> 01:05:45,160

conferences and other venues of the need

1543

01:05:43,060 --> 01:05:46,900

to establish a regional dialogue

1544

01:05:45,160 --> 01:05:50,220

security dialogue and you know a

1545

01:05:46,900 --> 01:05:52,990

pandemic could make more clear that the

1546

01:05:50,220 --> 01:05:55,349

crises in the region cross geographic

1547

01:05:52,990 --> 01:05:59,830

boundaries nobody wins in a pandemic

1548

01:05:55,349 --> 01:06:01,990

nobody wins from maritime security being

1549

01:05:59,830 --> 01:06:04,780

undermine through constant rocket you

1550

01:06:01,990 --> 01:06:08,170

know attacks against tankers everybody

1551

01:06:04,780 --> 01:06:10,660

loses and so there is a need I've been

1552

01:06:08,170 --> 01:06:12,640

arguing this for many years of the

1553

01:06:10,660 --> 01:06:14,740

Egyptians actually and historically have

1554

01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:16,180

been in the forefront of efforts to be

1555

01:06:14,740 --> 01:06:19,430

interested in forging a regional

1556

01:06:16,180 --> 01:06:21,530

dialogue we need to figure out a model

1557

01:06:19,430 --> 01:06:24,230

it will take time but there needs to be

1558

01:06:21,530 --> 01:06:26,059

an investment in some kind of form for

1559

01:06:24,230 --> 01:06:27,740

all regional states and it needs to be

1560

01:06:26,059 --> 01:06:30,200

inclusive it can't just be a forum to

1561

01:06:27,740 --> 01:06:31,790

counter Iran or a forum to solve the

1562

01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:32,809

israel-palestinian conflict that's how

1563

01:06:31,790 --> 01:06:34,849

they've been done in the past they

1564

01:06:32,809 --> 01:06:36,380

didn't work but we need some kind of

1565

01:06:34,849 --> 01:06:37,910

forum the Middle East is the least

1566

01:06:36,380 --> 01:06:39,500

institutionalized region of the world

1567

01:06:37,910 --> 01:06:42,230

it's the only region that doesn't have

1568

01:06:39,500 --> 01:06:44,450

some open dialogue of this nature it's

1569

01:06:42,230 --> 01:06:48,079

really time so I my hope is that this

1570

01:06:44,450 --> 01:06:49,819

can time it can be used as an opening to

1571

01:06:48,079 --> 01:06:52,490

hopefully increase the appetite for that

1572

01:06:49,819 --> 01:06:58,970

within the region we don't see it yet

1573

01:06:52,490 --> 01:07:03,980

but but maybe we'll get there let's talk

1574

01:06:58,970 --> 01:07:06,020

to everyone I think as my two colleagues

1575

01:07:03,980 --> 01:07:12,650

mentioned we did see some signs of

1576

01:07:06,020 --> 01:07:15,050

cooperation highlighting again that we

1577

01:07:12,650 --> 01:07:16,819

can that there's some areas Dahlia

1578

01:07:15,050 --> 01:07:22,130

mentioned that are easier to cooperate

1579

01:07:16,819 --> 01:07:24,440

rather than others in terms internally I

1580

01:07:22,130 --> 01:07:26,720

can say a few words about Israel the

1581

01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:29,750

healthcare field is one of the only

1582

01:07:26,720 --> 01:07:31,940

areas that are completely integrated in

1583

01:07:29,750 --> 01:07:35,140

Israeli society you know where schooling

1584

01:07:31,940 --> 01:07:37,849

is separate for example hospitals are

1585

01:07:35,140 --> 01:07:40,700

generally a completely joint and the

1586

01:07:37,849 --> 01:07:42,200

disproportionate number of Israeli Arabs

1587

01:07:40,700 --> 01:07:44,059

Israeli Palestinians working in that

1588

01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:46,309

sector so I think in that respect he did

1589

01:07:44,059 --> 01:07:47,780

create an atmosphere of a goodwill and

1590

01:07:46,309 --> 01:07:50,180

acceptance again there's already a

1591

01:07:47,780 --> 01:07:54,829

trajectory in this direction when

1592

01:07:50,180 --> 01:07:57,380

Israeli Arabs are more integrated in

1593

01:07:54,829 --> 01:07:59,119

some of the public spheres for example

1594

01:07:57,380 --> 01:08:01,760

the chairman of Israel's second biggest

1595

01:07:59,119 --> 01:08:03,650

bank that was initially created by the

1596

01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:06,020

Zionist movement and Chloe's now in

1597

01:08:03,650 --> 01:08:08,030

Israeli Palestinians we also saw

1598

01:08:06,020 --> 01:08:09,799

reaching across another divide the

1599

01:08:08,030 --> 01:08:10,970

internal Jewish divided between

1600

01:08:09,799 --> 01:08:14,359

ultra-orthodox

1601

01:08:10,970 --> 01:08:16,929

and secular named black heredity city

1602

01:08:14,359 --> 01:08:19,940

was the most severely hit in terms of

1603

01:08:16,929 --> 01:08:22,040

geography and the IDF took it over so

1604

01:08:19,940 --> 01:08:24,770

these are two populations that don't mix

1605

01:08:22,040 --> 01:08:27,319

as in order to don't serve and yet the

1606

01:08:24,770 --> 01:08:29,299

military is an institution it was able

1607

01:08:27,319 --> 01:08:31,850

to reach out there were openings for

1608

01:08:29,299 --> 01:08:33,109

gestures for Kasim I think a big

1609

01:08:31,850 --> 01:08:37,569

Palestinians

1610

01:08:33,109 --> 01:08:40,100

city they assisted Bnei Brak and so

1611

01:08:37,569 --> 01:08:42,230

these things again they take time and I

1612

01:08:40,100 --> 01:08:45,380

think these these gestures lists on the

1613

01:08:42,230 --> 01:08:47,659

internal arena do make a difference on

1614

01:08:45,380 --> 01:08:49,639

the long-term they do remind and excuse

1615

01:08:47,659 --> 01:08:53,150

me for being leave they do remind our

1616

01:08:49,639 --> 01:08:56,509

common humanity in these issues I think

1617

01:08:53,150 --> 01:08:58,250

it's not the last Raptor in the two big

1618

01:08:56,509 --> 01:09:00,139

developments that can change that and

1619

01:08:58,250 --> 01:09:02,270

that is the development of the vaccine

1620

01:09:00,139 --> 01:09:06,139

or some technological breakthrough that

1621

01:09:02,270 --> 01:09:07,969

make testing much easier so that depends

1622

01:09:06,139 --> 01:09:09,770

who would be the first one to do it but

1623

01:09:07,969 --> 01:09:11,750

there's a lot of efforts in Israel to

1624

01:09:09,770 --> 01:09:14,029

develop cheaper and quicker solutions

1625

01:09:11,750 --> 01:09:16,880

for that if this is somehow leveraged to

1626

01:09:14,029 --> 01:09:19,690

a broader outreach or perhaps a new

1627

01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:22,250

American administration with the new a

1628

01:09:19,690 --> 01:09:24,830

polio type vaccine that is offered to

1629

01:09:22,250 --> 01:09:27,130

the world can change this green picture

1630

01:09:24,830 --> 01:09:32,060

and we are creating now very limited

1631

01:09:27,130 --> 01:09:34,819

cooperation let me ask one final

1632

01:09:32,060 --> 01:09:36,529

question for our panelists I think the

1633

01:09:34,819 --> 01:09:39,199

discussion has been excellent so far and

1634

01:09:36,529 --> 01:09:42,109

I want to try to link the the discussion

1635

01:09:39,199 --> 01:09:43,460

of the the need to rethink the economic

1636

01:09:42,109 --> 01:09:47,719

models in the region

1637

01:09:43,460 --> 01:09:49,489

coupled with you know that the ongoing

1638

01:09:47,719 --> 01:09:52,580

and I might being in temporarily

1639

01:09:49,489 --> 01:09:54,889

suspended social unrest you know we know

1640

01:09:52,580 --> 01:09:57,260

historically that in times of emergency

1641

01:09:54,889 --> 01:09:58,940

whether in the in the region or you know

1642

01:09:57,260 --> 01:10:02,510

even the United States when there's war

1643

01:09:58,940 --> 01:10:04,639

or emergency you know public contention

1644

01:10:02,510 --> 01:10:06,380

goes down many people expect it will

1645

01:10:04,639 --> 01:10:08,360

never pop up again but when the

1646

01:10:06,380 --> 01:10:10,520

emergency is ended

1647

01:10:08,360 --> 01:10:13,340

normalcy does not appear and said you

1648

01:10:10,520 --> 01:10:16,850

usually see a rise in claims on on

1649

01:10:13,340 --> 01:10:19,550

political elites new demands possibly

1650

01:10:16,850 --> 01:10:23,150

even new coalition's that were born

1651

01:10:19,550 --> 01:10:24,860

during the emergency period so it's

1652

01:10:23,150 --> 01:10:26,840

probably not a crazy idea to predict

1653

01:10:24,860 --> 01:10:28,369

that either through the introduction of

1654

01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:31,159

new forms of treatment which at least

1655

01:10:28,369 --> 01:10:33,800

make it easier deal with the illness or

1656

01:10:31,159 --> 01:10:36,409

you know in this miracle vaccine that

1657

01:10:33,800 --> 01:10:40,480

whenever it comes that that when you

1658

01:10:36,409 --> 01:10:42,920

know the post normal phase is introduced

1659

01:10:40,480 --> 01:10:44,570

arise and different types of protests

1660

01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:46,210

will occur making both old and new

1661

01:10:44,570 --> 01:10:47,950

demands how

1662

01:10:46,210 --> 01:10:51,460

that'd be however that might that

1663

01:10:47,950 --> 01:10:53,290

intersect with the need recognized both

1664

01:10:51,460 --> 01:10:55,840

by those in charge as well as many

1665

01:10:53,290 --> 01:10:57,010

others for a new economic model not one

1666

01:10:55,840 --> 01:10:59,830

for the region but country-specific

1667

01:10:57,010 --> 01:11:02,530

given the decline in commodity prices

1668

01:10:59,830 --> 01:11:04,210

the lack of investment from no West from

1669

01:11:02,530 --> 01:11:07,600

from Western investors and the

1670

01:11:04,210 --> 01:11:10,030

possibility but not promise of funds

1671

01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:11,890

coming from the east to kind of

1672

01:11:10,030 --> 01:11:14,140

reintegrate some parts of the region

1673

01:11:11,890 --> 01:11:16,750

into the world economy is there a model

1674

01:11:14,140 --> 01:11:19,510

that can satisfied on everyone of course

1675

01:11:16,750 --> 01:11:21,610

but but that we can rethink the region

1676

01:11:19,510 --> 01:11:22,930

and the incorporation of so many

1677

01:11:21,610 --> 01:11:26,770

individuals who you know have been

1678

01:11:22,930 --> 01:11:28,300

demanding to be pulled into the social

1679

01:11:26,770 --> 01:11:30,190

and economic context over the last

1680

01:11:28,300 --> 01:11:32,110

decades or what and you know what is

1681

01:11:30,190 --> 01:11:34,390

individual countries how could they

1682

01:11:32,110 --> 01:11:37,360

think of reinserting themselves in the

1683

01:11:34,390 --> 01:11:42,060

world economy whether or not the

1684

01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:42,060

geopolitics aside for the time being

1685

01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:50,170

ambassador you so please well I think

1686

01:11:47,290 --> 01:11:53,200

this is a crucial issue because I think

1687

01:11:50,170 --> 01:11:57,160

the impact on the economies in division

1688

01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:59,800

will be catastrophic and it applies

1689

01:11:57,160 --> 01:12:06,480

across the board even those who have

1690

01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:09,190

huge investments and funds in the curve

1691

01:12:06,480 --> 01:12:11,620

suffering hugely from from what has

1692

01:12:09,190 --> 01:12:14,560

happened of course the declining the

1693

01:12:11,620 --> 01:12:16,240

price of oil has had a huge impact and I

1694

01:12:14,560 --> 01:12:19,990

just saw a report this morning that

1695

01:12:16,240 --> 01:12:22,890

expects that 2.5 billion people will

1696

01:12:19,990 --> 01:12:27,970

will will have to leave the Gulf as a

1697

01:12:22,890 --> 01:12:31,750

result of kovat 90 so so this will

1698

01:12:27,970 --> 01:12:34,180

happen so the decline will happen at the

1699

01:12:31,750 --> 01:12:36,360

same time I think a number of countries

1700

01:12:34,180 --> 01:12:39,490

in the Gulf have been talking about

1701

01:12:36,360 --> 01:12:42,250

diversification of the economy for years

1702

01:12:39,490 --> 01:12:45,300

but they haven't been as serious about

1703

01:12:42,250 --> 01:12:47,770

it as they could so I think that this

1704

01:12:45,300 --> 01:12:52,150

what happened in the pandemic will

1705

01:12:47,770 --> 01:12:53,860

result in we thinking of the economies

1706

01:12:52,150 --> 01:12:58,030

in the Gulf in a much more fundamental

1707

01:12:53,860 --> 01:12:59,460

way because they also realized that all

1708

01:12:58,030 --> 01:13:01,410

these workers

1709

01:12:59,460 --> 01:13:03,870

just like they were helping in building

1710

01:13:01,410 --> 01:13:07,410

the economy they can become also a

1711

01:13:03,870 --> 01:13:11,340

source of danger as a result of the

1712

01:13:07,410 --> 01:13:13,080

virus so so this is part of it but then

1713

01:13:11,340 --> 01:13:15,270

there are a number of other countries in

1714

01:13:13,080 --> 01:13:17,580

that would be dealing with all kinds of

1715

01:13:15,270 --> 01:13:19,140

things we were discussing earlier the

1716

01:13:17,580 --> 01:13:21,600

price of oil for example and how this

1717

01:13:19,140 --> 01:13:24,030

would be a problem for the gun but this

1718

01:13:21,600 --> 01:13:26,280

is absolutely welcome to a country like

1719

01:13:24,030 --> 01:13:30,930

Jordan a country like Morocco

1720

01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:33,180

that important of its own so this will

1721

01:13:30,930 --> 01:13:35,640

have a positive impact on their process

1722

01:13:33,180 --> 01:13:38,190

of the version but then we come to

1723

01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:41,730

another dimension issues pertaining to

1724

01:13:38,190 --> 01:13:43,290

ok how long will it take to recover and

1725

01:13:41,730 --> 01:13:46,739

this is something that would be very

1726

01:13:43,290 --> 01:13:52,140

difficult to to to calculate all to

1727

01:13:46,739 --> 01:13:54,690

predict in major sectors so in a sector

1728

01:13:52,140 --> 01:13:58,050

like tourism for example when will will

1729

01:13:54,690 --> 01:14:00,440

Egypt Lebanon Tunisia Morocco be able to

1730

01:13:58,050 --> 01:14:04,170

recover some of of the tools and so on

1731

01:14:00,440 --> 01:14:06,989

no one knows if we have not clear on

1732

01:14:04,170 --> 01:14:10,320

when we will have planes flying in the

1733

01:14:06,989 --> 01:14:12,450

air in the next few months so and also

1734

01:14:10,320 --> 01:14:14,370

people will start thinking about tourism

1735

01:14:12,450 --> 01:14:16,469

in a totally different way they will

1736

01:14:14,370 --> 01:14:18,239

start thinking ok do I want to be held

1737

01:14:16,469 --> 01:14:21,330

in this place if there is a second wave

1738

01:14:18,239 --> 01:14:23,940

or a third wave and so on investments in

1739

01:14:21,330 --> 01:14:26,250

light of the current situation regarding

1740

01:14:23,940 --> 01:14:28,290

investments and people going to much

1741

01:14:26,250 --> 01:14:32,370

safer havens in relation to investment

1742

01:14:28,290 --> 01:14:35,130

and so on so countries may be forced to

1743

01:14:32,370 --> 01:14:37,500

rethink their strategy across the board

1744

01:14:35,130 --> 01:14:39,630

whether they are which country is poor

1745

01:14:37,500 --> 01:14:42,540

countries middle-income countries they

1746

01:14:39,630 --> 01:14:45,150

will have to do that the problem is that

1747

01:14:42,540 --> 01:14:48,030

the whole world is passing through this

1748

01:14:45,150 --> 01:14:51,690

crisis at the same time so when we had

1749

01:14:48,030 --> 01:14:53,610

the 2008-2009 financial crisis we still

1750

01:14:51,690 --> 01:14:56,310

had China and India that were able to

1751

01:14:53,610 --> 01:14:57,750

pull the world the global economy we

1752

01:14:56,310 --> 01:15:00,900

don't have anything like that this time

1753

01:14:57,750 --> 01:15:03,510

so now it is much more difficult and

1754

01:15:00,900 --> 01:15:06,060

countries will have to work on it very

1755

01:15:03,510 --> 01:15:09,600

hard otherwise there will be another

1756

01:15:06,060 --> 01:15:11,970

wave of revolutions revolts

1757

01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:14,670

demonstrations you name it because

1758

01:15:11,970 --> 01:15:16,590

people will be suffering a lot and as a

1759

01:15:14,670 --> 01:15:20,970

result of poverty loss of employment and

1760

01:15:16,590 --> 01:15:24,240

so on dr. Jessica yeah I really can't

1761

01:15:20,970 --> 01:15:27,570

add more that was so thorough only to

1762

01:15:24,240 --> 01:15:31,350

say that I think we absolutely can and

1763

01:15:27,570 --> 01:15:33,060

should expect new waves the original

1764

01:15:31,350 --> 01:15:35,310

conditions that led to the protests

1765

01:15:33,060 --> 01:15:36,750

across the region and they do very I

1766

01:15:35,310 --> 01:15:39,180

think that's an important point

1767

01:15:36,750 --> 01:15:44,220

but the grievances are there are some

1768

01:15:39,180 --> 01:15:46,560

commonalities and I I think that now

1769

01:15:44,220 --> 01:15:49,010

there'll be you know the pandemic lays

1770

01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:51,210

bare the real weaknesses of these

1771

01:15:49,010 --> 01:15:53,490

societies these governments and their

1772

01:15:51,210 --> 01:15:55,170

state capacities to handle people's

1773

01:15:53,490 --> 01:15:58,080

needs and really underscores the

1774

01:15:55,170 --> 01:16:01,890

inequities even in Gulf oil rich

1775

01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:03,630

countries and and so I think but

1776

01:16:01,890 --> 01:16:05,730

certainly in countries like Egypt Jordan

1777

01:16:03,630 --> 01:16:08,310

Lebanon is is in particularly dire

1778

01:16:05,730 --> 01:16:11,100

condition so I think we can expect

1779

01:16:08,310 --> 01:16:13,320

protests and pressures the question is

1780

01:16:11,100 --> 01:16:15,000

what will the response be when we saw

1781

01:16:13,320 --> 01:16:17,190

the initial wave of protests and the

1782

01:16:15,000 --> 01:16:19,860

Arab uprisings you know there are two

1783

01:16:17,190 --> 01:16:22,080

tactics repression or co-option and in

1784

01:16:19,860 --> 01:16:23,700

the in the past the oil-rich stage could

1785

01:16:22,080 --> 01:16:26,550

co-op they could afford to co-op that

1786

01:16:23,700 --> 01:16:28,680

option is likely off the agenda now I

1787

01:16:26,550 --> 01:16:31,470

think the age of the renter state

1788

01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:33,030

indefinite age of the writ is done so is

1789

01:16:31,470 --> 01:16:37,520

it going to just be a playbook of

1790

01:16:33,030 --> 01:16:40,140

doubling down and repressive tactics and

1791

01:16:37,520 --> 01:16:42,780

squashing any opposition or is there

1792

01:16:40,140 --> 01:16:45,360

going to be openings or new contracts

1793

01:16:42,780 --> 01:16:47,280

with between state and society of maybe

1794

01:16:45,360 --> 01:16:49,560

you know you're willing to put up with a

1795

01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:51,540

certain level of political repression if

1796

01:16:49,560 --> 01:16:53,790

you're opening up the societal space

1797

01:16:51,540 --> 01:16:57,030

that looks like what Saudi Arabia is

1798

01:16:53,790 --> 01:16:58,470

right now aiming for hard to know if

1799

01:16:57,030 --> 01:17:01,320

that's going to be a bargain that's

1800

01:16:58,470 --> 01:17:03,390

sustainable but it will mean that people

1801

01:17:01,320 --> 01:17:05,310

live very differently even in these

1802

01:17:03,390 --> 01:17:08,160

states that we're that were well

1803

01:17:05,310 --> 01:17:11,010

subsidized in the past those those cuts

1804

01:17:08,160 --> 01:17:12,900

will be there people will get taxed who

1805

01:17:11,010 --> 01:17:14,430

have not been taxed before they will not

1806

01:17:12,900 --> 01:17:17,700

be able to live the kinds of lives they

1807

01:17:14,430 --> 01:17:20,190

lived before the the oil money will not

1808

01:17:17,700 --> 01:17:23,070

be flowing to the rest of the region so

1809

01:17:20,190 --> 01:17:25,500

I think you know it's it's it's a very

1810

01:17:23,070 --> 01:17:26,790

very important question

1811

01:17:25,500 --> 01:17:29,550

but one of those that I think we're

1812

01:17:26,790 --> 01:17:30,990

going to have to watch for a while to

1813

01:17:29,550 --> 01:17:38,130

really understand how it's gonna play

1814

01:17:30,990 --> 01:17:39,870

out find a word for you yes thank you it

1815

01:17:38,130 --> 01:17:41,520

will be strange moment to try and get

1816

01:17:39,870 --> 01:17:44,190

him to integrate to the global economy

1817

01:17:41,520 --> 01:17:46,860

is we are witnessing a reversal of

1818

01:17:44,190 --> 01:17:50,520

globalization and perhaps going back to

1819

01:17:46,860 --> 01:17:52,740

States and economic models it will

1820

01:17:50,520 --> 01:17:57,510

create a think an opening for China to

1821

01:17:52,740 --> 01:17:59,610

invest in economically challenged areas

1822

01:17:57,510 --> 01:18:01,770

as we've seen their investments in

1823

01:17:59,610 --> 01:18:05,060

Africa which we lead to more discussions

1824

01:18:01,770 --> 01:18:06,870

about Chinese control of infrastructure

1825

01:18:05,060 --> 01:18:09,360

diversification is difficult because

1826

01:18:06,870 --> 01:18:11,820

part of it at least is Saudi Arabia

1827

01:18:09,360 --> 01:18:13,920

include required massive investments

1828

01:18:11,820 --> 01:18:18,510

like this new city near or moving to

1829

01:18:13,920 --> 01:18:21,620

high-tech and if the cost of oil is

1830

01:18:18,510 --> 01:18:25,170

dropping so much will be difficult for

1831

01:18:21,620 --> 01:18:27,150

NBS to try and pursue these initiatives

1832

01:18:25,170 --> 01:18:29,520

if I'm trying to think outside of the

1833

01:18:27,150 --> 01:18:31,230

box water the opportunity is healthcare

1834

01:18:29,520 --> 01:18:33,180

is going to be huge industry in the

1835

01:18:31,230 --> 01:18:35,280

wealthier parts of the world very

1836

01:18:33,180 --> 01:18:39,180

expensive in places like North America

1837

01:18:35,280 --> 01:18:41,190

and the ability to deliver telemedicine

1838

01:18:39,180 --> 01:18:43,550

will offer opportunities for countries

1839

01:18:41,190 --> 01:18:47,490

that have good training in the medical

1840

01:18:43,550 --> 01:18:49,730

sector to provide richer countries via

1841

01:18:47,490 --> 01:18:52,550

technology like the one we are using now

1842

01:18:49,730 --> 01:18:56,970

healthcare also requires a lot of

1843

01:18:52,550 --> 01:19:00,090

neighbors that have limited skills like

1844

01:18:56,970 --> 01:19:03,510

support staff and so on which may create

1845

01:19:00,090 --> 01:19:06,840

some demand when less skilled public but

1846

01:19:03,510 --> 01:19:08,400

I include for example some of the Middle

1847

01:19:06,840 --> 01:19:10,650

Eastern immigrants in Europe can find

1848

01:19:08,400 --> 01:19:14,010

themselves in sectors but that will

1849

01:19:10,650 --> 01:19:16,050

require innovation thinking outside of

1850

01:19:14,010 --> 01:19:19,140

the box reconnecting to some global

1851

01:19:16,050 --> 01:19:21,180

networks of healthcare and I think the

1852

01:19:19,140 --> 01:19:23,370

picture we described here is not very

1853

01:19:21,180 --> 01:19:28,620

promising about it but the opportunity I

1854

01:19:23,370 --> 01:19:30,780

think is there well thank you all and

1855

01:19:28,620 --> 01:19:33,210

you know if you've been watching I wanna

1856

01:19:30,780 --> 01:19:35,160

another you or not oh no our live

1857

01:19:33,210 --> 01:19:38,849

audience just our zoom alone was in the

1858

01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:41,040

triple digits many more on YouTube so

1859

01:19:38,849 --> 01:19:42,599

arguably a more successful panel that

1860

01:19:41,040 --> 01:19:44,940

even could be held in person in some

1861

01:19:42,599 --> 01:19:46,290

place in some cases that you say on

1862

01:19:44,940 --> 01:19:49,170

behalf of the EU's alien International

1863

01:19:46,290 --> 01:19:51,480

Institute I'd like to thank everyone for

1864

01:19:49,170 --> 01:19:53,190

participating and watching and my thanks

1865

01:19:51,480 --> 01:19:56,310

to Doug Waxman for Co moderating this

1866

01:19:53,190 --> 01:19:59,070

panel and I hope that we're able to see

1867

01:19:56,310 --> 01:20:02,369

this conversation in this forum or other

1868

01:19:59,070 --> 01:20:05,130

far in the future because as as all of

1869

01:20:02,369 --> 01:20:07,050

us have have established this is the

1870

01:20:05,130 --> 01:20:08,909

beginning of this process and I think

1871

01:20:07,050 --> 01:20:10,409

keeping an eye on and keeping these

1872

01:20:08,909 --> 01:20:13,830

conversations going is very important

1873

01:20:10,409 --> 01:20:16,670

thanks so much and we appreciate you

1874

01:20:13,830 --> 01:20:16,670

watching and participating