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Thank you all for coming out.

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It's really wonderful to see a full room,

full house starting off the new year.

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And this is our first of the,

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institute

wide generative theme initiative.

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So I'll say a little bit about that

in a second.

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We first want to welcome all of you.

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We'll have a few more people coming

in, I'm sure.

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Before you too long,

want to thank many people.

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Thanks to Chloe

for all the behind the scenes work

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and ordering the sandwiches

and and feeding you all

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thanks to our tech team

in the International Institute.

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Kaia, Ryan and André

who who organized the flyers in the website

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and will be posting today's video

thanks to Oliver, Warren and Mai

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for creating a video today.

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We didn't do the event.

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We chose not to do the event hybrid,

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but we will have a recording

and it will be posted online.

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So if you like what

you hear, tell your friends.

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Thanks to Peggy for,

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the communicate, our communications

director who will be writing about this.

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Always thanks to Catherine and Ron,

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who are the backbone of so many things

in the institute.

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And Cindy Fan,

our fearless leader, is traveling now.

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She's the vice provost

of the International Institute.

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David Kim and I are the associate

vice provost, and we are here

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to welcome you and organize this event.

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We'd like to take a minute

to acknowledge the land we are on,

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the unceded land of the Gabrielino and Tongva people.

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And now UCLA is a land grant

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institution,

which, as AI informed me this morning,

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because I had to Google

what exactly is a land grant institution.

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I've been saying it all these years

and I didn't really know what it was.

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So AI informed me that land

grant universities

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were established

under the Morrill Acts of 1862.

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In 1890, to provide a, quote, practical

education for the working classes

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by teaching agriculture, military tactics

and the mechanic arts, unquote.

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We are meeting in Bunche Hall, named after

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Ralph Bunche, who was a leader of the US

civil rights movement

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and the winner of the 1950

Nobel Peace Prize for his mediation

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between Palestinians

and Israelis in the late 1940s.

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And that brings me to also acknowledge

the political moment we are living

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a context of expanding war

in the Middle East, a finishing a year

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of tremendous suffering there,

as well as in Ukraine, Russia, Sudan.

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Never mind the climactic crisis

we're seeing around the world.

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Floods in West Africa, hurricanes

in Thailand, North Carolina, Florida

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and growing threats to democracy

and the drying up of the Amazon.

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Thank you.

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Yes, and I'm sure I left out

many other places and spaces

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where suffering is happening, where crises

are, where the world is at risk.

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So forgive me for

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not mentioning every place,

and every issue

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that is of concern

to should be of concern to all of us.

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But there are also some new possibilities

emerging,

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some bright spots on the global stage.

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And we hope to hear a little bit of that

and bring that into today's conversation.

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Today's panel is part

of the International Institute's

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Generative Theme initiative,

centered on a triptych of important

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and potentially contentious concepts

democracy, freedom and truth.

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The initiative is oriented to prompting

reflection on what each of these terms

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means, individually and in combination,

in dialog with each other.

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The International Institute

for those of you who aren't familiar.

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We welcome you to peruse the website.

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There's also a web page

about the democracy.

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See Freedom and Truth Initiative.

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You can also sign up for our mailing lists

and our monthly calendar.

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It brings together research centers

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and interdepartmental degree programs

with people

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who have in-depth knowledge

about many regions

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and matters in the world,

but we often work in isolation.

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So the aim of this panel,

and the aim of the Generative Themes

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initiative, is to generate conversation

across regions,

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across this expertise,

by considering what we can learn

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from looking at some of the many

significant elections that have happened

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or that will soon happen

around the world in 2024.

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The video from,

I told you that, will be on the website.

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And if you don't want to be in the video,

just don't sit in front of the camera.

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We've assembled four panelists,

each of whom

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will speak briefly to important elections

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in different nations

or regions of the world.

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We have India, Mexico, Latin America,

and the European Union represented.

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And to the issues

that these bring to the fore.

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We know these aren't

all of the regions or elections

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that are happening

in this year of super elections.

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But we want to invite, conversation

around these regions

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and others that you may be familiar with

and to think together.

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What can we learn from these

and other electoral flashpoints

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around the globe during this moment,

this current shifting world order?

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And then in in anticipation of the US

elections next month.

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All right.

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So, David, who went running out

to see to look for our fourth

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panelist is back

and he's going to introduce the speakers.

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Thank you.

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Thank you.

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Marjorie.

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I would also like to begin by,

echoing her gratitude for all of you,

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not just, being here,

but also for your support.

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It's wonderful to have the chance

of bringing everybody together.

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I stepped outside for a second

because our fourth panelist,

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who was coming from

outside of UCLA, is a little lost,

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but I hear that she's in the building,

so hopefully,

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she can make her way a little by little

and then join us in a minute.

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So let me begin

by introducing you to the panelists.

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It's really my pleasure of doing so,

professor Susanna Hecht.

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To my right is Professor

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with several appointments

at the Luskin School of Public Affairs

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and the Institute of the Environment

and Sustainability at UCLA.

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She also serves as director

of the Center for, for Brazilian Studies.

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She's proficient in numerous languages,

and her publications focus on topics

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as far reaching

as migration, urbanization,

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the Amazon, and natural resources

in South America.

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Professor Hecht will address three

extremely dicey elections in countries

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that have Amazon Sovereignties Venezuela

poster country for election fraud.

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And there's also the

country of my birth, Bolivia,

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with its, staged, auto coup.

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That's

also the country where my wife, is born.

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In Peru. No connection there.

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These are all,

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flailing, if not failed states,

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but the implications for the capacity

of governance over critical and large

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Amazonian areas has much broader effects

at the level of local systems,

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climate change

and the rise of clandestine economies.

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Let me move that to, her rights,

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and introduce,

Doctor Gaspar Rivera-Salgado,

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doctor Rivera-Salgado is director

of the UCLA center

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for Mexican Studies and project director

at the UCLA Labor Center

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and core faculty in the UCLA

Labor Studies Program.

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He directs the Global Labor Initiative

with an emphasis on cross-border

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worker to worker collaborations between

the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

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Doctor Rivera-Salgado, will address

last June's landslide victory of Mexico's

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first female president,

Claudia Sheinbaum.

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She will.

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He will consider both a power claim

but assumes with significant ability

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to pass constitutional reforms

and the challenges she will face

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given complex political dynamics

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and in challenges, insecurity

and the rule of law in Mexico.

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Then we have our third panelists,

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Tejas Parasher.

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Professor Parasher is assistant

professor of political theory

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with a joint appointment in the Department

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of Political Science

and the International Institute.

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So he's one of our teaching faculty.

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He's the author of an award

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winning book, Radical Democracy

in Modern Indian Political Thought.

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It appeared with Cambridge University

Press in 2023.

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His research explores the philosophical,

the political philosophy

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of collective self-determination,

political representation, and statehood.

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Last but not least,

our final panelist has just joined us.

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We're so glad that you're here.

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And she is a visitor to UCLA.

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Professor Klinger is a Thomas

Mann fellow, this year.

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And she is Professor

and chair of Digital Democracy,

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as well as a member of the board

of directors of the European New School

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of Digital Studies at the European

University of Viadrina in Frankfurt

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Oder in Germany.

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Professor Klinger will discuss

the new European Parliament

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that was elected in June 2024,

in relation to the upcoming US election,

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with a comparative perspective

of on democratic vulnerabilities,

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democratic backsliding and safeguarding

core democratic institutions.

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She brings a longitudinal perspective

to consider the role of election campaigns

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on social media,

and both the success of far

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right parties and divisions within them.

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So thank you once again

for joining the panel.

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Let's give them,

first of all, a round of applause.

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We have asked each panelist

to speak for about 5 to 10 minutes,

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and then jump right into a discussion

as soon as possible.

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The sooner the better, because I'm

sure you will have lots of questions

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and we very much

look forward to the discussion.

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Thank you. So let's begin with,

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let's begin with Tejas.

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Please come forward.

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Okay. Thank you everyone.

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So thank you, David.

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First of all, and to Marjorie,

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and both of you for organizing

this important event for the invitation.

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I'm really looking forward, to discussing

with you and with my co-panelists.

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So, as I think both David

and Marjorie mentioned at the beginning,

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this is a critically important year. Even,

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even by the standards of what's

been happening over the last five years.

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The, I mean,

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this is the most obviously the year

when the greatest number of human beings

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either have already gone to the polls

or will be going to the polls

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collectively in human history.

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And what I want to do in my, in my remarks

is, is to look at the largest

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of these democratic exercises,

which was the Indian parliamentary

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elections,

which happened in April and May of 2024.

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I want to say a little bit

about some dynamics,

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that I observed

or have observed in retrospect,

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about these elections

and then use them to say some

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make some more general remarks

about the relationship between,

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I think, democracy

and liberalism and rights

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and that kind of triangular relationship,

because those aren't the same thing.

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And I think part

of what the Indian election,

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I shown me

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is that that relationship

is in some sort of moment of evolution.

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I'm not sure what it's heading towards,

but there seems to be

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some kind of transformation

happening in that kind of relationship.

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Okay, so what exactly happened?

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So, so in the 2024

general election in India, the incumbent,

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the ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party

or BJP, led by Prime

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Minister Narendra Modi, was expected

to win a decisive victory, right?

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This was the expectation

going into the elections.

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And if you looked at polling numbers,

including exit polls,

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into the early stages of the election

in April, then then the prediction

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was that the BJP would certainly get

an absolute majority on its own.

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So just, as a single party.

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So this would have meant that

it would get at least 273 of the total

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543 elected seats

in the national parliament.

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So that was

that was sort of the baseline prediction.

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And then further, the prediction was that

it would actually beat the seat

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share that it had received in 2019,

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the 3 or 3 feature

that it had gained in the 2019 election.

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So the expectation was not that

the BJP would win,

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not just that, but that it would do

better than it had done

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five years earlier

when it had won a clear landslide victory.

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Right. And

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it, it actually in the lead

up to the election, in the campaigning,

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BJP party leaders were pushing for more

than 400 seats on, on its own as a party,

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which is something that has not happened,

in Indian history, except once in 1984.

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Right.

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So this would have meant

a full on supermajority win.

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Now what? So what happened?

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So this was the prediction going

into the elections and, what happened?

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Well, the in the end,

the BJP did win the 2024 election.

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So it is the governing party today.

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And actually just this this, morning,

this evening at one elections

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in a crucial northern state.

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So it's still, you know, it won.

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But its victory

margin was substantially less, than either

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party leaders

or pollsters had predicted or anticipated.

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So on its own,

the BJP only gained 240 seats,

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which is

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far less than what it had gained in 2019,

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and it only actually gained a majority,

through its coalition partners.

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Right.

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So it had formed this coalition

with other parties called the National

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Democratic Alliance or the NDA,

and that is what led that.

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It's that coalition

that led the BJP to form a majority.

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And even that majority,

that absolute majority was short of 300.

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So even as part of a coalition, it

240

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fell short of the single party, like,

241

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you know, the vote

it had gotten as a single party in 2019.

242

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And the party also lost some key

constituencies in northern states

243

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where it had expected,

to sail to easy victory.

244

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Right.

245

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So I think the victory of the BJP,

the electoral victory of the BJP was not,

246

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surprising to anyone,

but the fact that it happened through

247

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such a slim margins,

did catch, many people off guard.

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I don't know if anyone saw this,

like, video that went viral of an

249

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a pollster crying on command magazine.

250

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Realize that, you know, his like,

predictions had not come true.

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It's. Yeah. Yeah.

252

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Okay.

253

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So that's what happened.

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Now, I think there have been a few,

255

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some of the commentary produced

in the immediate aftermath of the election

256

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was a little,

257

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too optimistic, too exaggerated,

that saying that this marks

258

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the end of populism,

the end of strongman politics.

259

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I don't think that's true.

260

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And as I said, the BJP

just won another election.

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So, you know, it doesn't I don't think it

marks that kind of watershed moment

262

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of an end of a certain era

that it started.

263

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But it is it is striking for

and for a few other reasons.

264

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And there are a number of factors

behind this result.

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Right.

266

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So, so,

we can imagine things like regionalism,

267

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the importance of regionalism

in Indian politics, the idea,

268

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the concern about welfare provisions, the,

you know,

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the reality of India's lagging

growth and job growth numbers and so on.

270

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So there were a number of factors,

but one particularly important

271

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one that I want to just briefly

highlight is a concern that had,

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become very salient about the problem

of constitutional erosion.

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Right.

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And this is a term that sometimes, now,

275

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become current

in political and constitutional theory.

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So constitutional erosion,

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there was a real tangible fear

in the early months of 2024

278

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that if the BJP were to win

through a supermajority vote,

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it would have unimpeded power to amend,

fundamentally amend the Constitution.

280

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Right.

281

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So the kind of parliamentary structure

that had been put into place

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through this constitutional structure

that has been more or less functioning,

283

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seamlessly

since 1950, would be threatened.

284

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Right?

285

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So this while this was obviously

a parliamentary election,

286

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there was a fear that it was

287

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the supermajority win of more than 400

would have given Modi

288

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almost an executive power

to amend the Constitution.

289

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And this is something that has happened

in India once before, during a period

290

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called the emergency, right?

291

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This two year period in 1975, from 1975

292

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to 1977, where there was a real,

293

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you know, interruption of democracy

and a changing of the Constitution,

294

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there was a fear

that this was going to happen again.

295

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And what I think that one of the things

that I just want to mention

296

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that was really striking to me,

297

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and it has been, even more striking is

I kind of look back on this election.

298

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Is that something that the otherwise

shaky coalition of opposition parties did

299

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successfully was to highlight

the election as a fight

300

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over the Constitution, over

constitutional values.

301

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Right.

302

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And so the election came to be framed

as an election for liberal rights,

303

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for a Liberal division,

a Liberal vision of a division of powers,

304

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you know, the sanctity of the judiciary

and so on,

305

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but also for the protection

of sort of basic

306

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civil

liberties and individual rights, right.

307

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And so this

308

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election became framed as an election for

the values of constitutional liberalism

309

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as much as or more than an election

between different competing

310

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visions of nationalism,

which is what I, I think the contest

311

00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,400

between the BJP and other parties

had been through the 20 tens.

312

00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,520

You know, whether or not you imagine

India to be a secular republic or not,

313

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whether or not you imagine, national

you know, what you imagine

314

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your vision of national security to be.

315

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I think much of the debate had been about

nationalism and what I'm really struck by

316

00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,320

is that in 2024,

the debate seems to have shifted

317

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to towards a defense of liberal values

and sort of basic liberal,

318

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what we might call basic liberal values.

319

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So a lot of the rhetoric against

320

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the incumbent party

was either framed as a defense of core

321

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constitutional values of the Constitution

itself, or as an institutional defense,

322

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of pluralist

323

00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:06,480

democracy, separation of powers

and individual rights.

324

00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:06,720

Right.

325

00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,200

So, so there were lots of opposition

rallies held through March,

326

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which were literally titled

Save the Constitution,

327

00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:14,200

right.

328

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And copies of the Constitution

329

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became this kind of totemic symbol

that people were holding up.

330

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And I think this is really new.

331

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I found this as someone who works on

the Indian Constitution

332

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in competitive perspective.

333

00:18:27,120 --> 00:18:30,960

I found this kind of mass uptake

of a constitutional language of liberal

334

00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:32,880

right to be very new, right.

335

00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:34,240

As I mentioned, it's different.

336

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It was it struck

me as being quite different

337

00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,520

from how the debate

between the BJP and its,

338

00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,160

opponents had been happening since 2014,

which is more about nationalism.

339

00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:46,360

But it was also different

from the inter brief

340

00:18:46,360 --> 00:18:49,680

interruption of democratic politics

in India in the mid 1970s.

341

00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:51,360

Right, which I just mentioned earlier.

342

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So this period called the emergency,

where, martial law is,

343

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is put into place

under emergency measures.

344

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And, and democracy

is effectively suspended.

345

00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,560

There's a lot of violations

of civil liberties and so on.

346

00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,560

At this moment, if you look back

to the documents produced and the kind of

347

00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,560

rhetoric, political discourse in the 70s,

the critique of democracy,

348

00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,600

of the emergency

of martial law, of emergency powers

349

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was as a defense of democracy

and popular sovereignty, right?

350

00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,480

The power of the people

that this is not a democratic, act.

351

00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:22,080

Right.

352

00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,760

And so what we need

is a defense of democracy.

353

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We need more robust forms of democracy.

354

00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,000

It's a critique of kind of one party rule

that doesn't seem to be happening now.

355

00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:32,840

The opposition to Modi,

356

00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:37,360

to the BJP in 2024 seems to be enveloped

in this liberal language of freedom

357

00:19:37,360 --> 00:19:41,160

and individual rights,

which is new to me, like at least

358

00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,480

at the mass level, seems new to me

as a dynamic in Indian politics.

359

00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,840

And I think this is where,

this is where I just want to close in.

360

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I think this this is something

361

00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,560

really interesting, like something

really interesting is happening,

362

00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,040

I think both in the Indian case

and I think more broadly, right, that

363

00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,160

first of all, in the Indian case,

this kind of,

364

00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,840

grassroot, the growth of this

kind of grassroots liberalism,

365

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right, that that opposite

366

00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,560

opposition

to perceived erosion of democracy

367

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is actually framed,

not in the language of democracy itself,

368

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but in the language of individual rights,

which is not a language that I think

369

00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,920

has really had resonance

in Indian political discourse

370

00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,320

in much of the country,

much for much of the 20th century.

371

00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:26,160

So this is new and then I think globally

as well, what it what it really shows.

372

00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,800

I think it's signaled

something that that, you know, there's

373

00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,160

there's been this talk of the rise

of something called illiberal democracy

374

00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:38,240

with reference to Hungary, a democracy

that kind of doubles down on principles

375

00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,480

of popular sovereignty

and charismatic leadership, but is deeply

376

00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,880

skeptical, critical, and even rejects

right frameworks and so on.

377

00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,760

And in opposition to illiberal democracy,

I think the uptake of liberalism itself,

378

00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,760

this kind of reclamation

of the language of liberalism,

379

00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,080

by actors and political thinkers

380

00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,080

and activists who I think never

really had much to do with liberalism.

381

00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,280

I mean, you see, the Communist Party

in India, for instance,

382

00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,600

coming out in defense of liberal rights,

and this is just such a,

383

00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,640

you know, it's this kind of consensus

around the value

384

00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,640

of constitutional liberalism,

which I think is really new.

385

00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,760

So, so I think this

what this shows globally and more

386

00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:19,920

in more kind of abstract,

ways is ism is a very different argument

387

00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,320

for the electoral process,

for the value of democracy,

388

00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:26,040

beyond more familiar arguments

about ensuring, accountable government.

389

00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:26,480

Right.

390

00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:31,120

So it's shows how we can view

elections that are happening now

391

00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,320

as kind of contests

over liberalism itself.

392

00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,320

Contests over the value of individual

rights, rather than simply,

393

00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,440

as I think we've tended to see them

as contests over Democratic,

394

00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,840

robustness of democratic institutions.

395

00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,000

You know, that's usually how democratic

backsliding and erosion have been seen.

396

00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,520

But I think there's something much deeper

going on here that the Indian elections

397

00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,360

are a kind of indicator

of this kind of debate about whether

398

00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,080

liberalism itself needs to be protected.

399

00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:02,880

In a democratic framework.

400

00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,200

And what are the stakes of doing that?

401

00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,240

So I'll stop there.

I think there's a lot more I can say.

402

00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:06,720

There's a lot more

403

00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,680

I didn't say about these elections,

but I'm hoping we can come back,

404

00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,160

to some of these, questions

and connections in the conversation.

405

00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:15,320

So thank you.

406

00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,520

Well, thank you for coming out here on,

407

00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,760

a beautiful day where you might be

408

00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,760

happily sitting outside

having lunch outside.

409

00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,160

What I'm going to be talking about

is perhaps

410

00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,800

feels like the opposite

of what we just heard, which is really,

411

00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:36,000

the thinking about, these questions

412

00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:40,560

not so much within a national context,

but it was in a regional context

413

00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,400

and also within an environmental

and planetary context,

414

00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,240

because I think it's important

to understand that these elections

415

00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,160

really aren't just about us.

416

00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,000

Although of course,

we feel it to be that way,

417

00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,800

but also about very important

environmental questions.

418

00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:01,040

So in that light, I'd like to go forward

and sort of think about

419

00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:02,880

what these kinds of,

420

00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,720

ecological implications

421

00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,880

are of electoral failures

and collapse colleges.

422

00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:16,800

That is, tipping points and flashpoints

in politics in many places in the world

423

00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,840

have very important

environmental questions.

424

00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:24,000

And as we know, nobody escapes

climate change anymore.

425

00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,760

So, hang on to your hats.

426

00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,320

Okay.

427

00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,440

This is,

428

00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,440

sort of a picture of the major climate,

429

00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,640

tipping points, planetary climate, tipping

points.

430

00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,560

Now, if you look rather carefully,

one of the things that you might notice

431

00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,880

is that most of these are not particularly

inhabited.

432

00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,840

The West Antarctic ice Sheet

teeming with its urban,

433

00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:55,200

urban culture and,

you know, famous for its, films.

434

00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:59,600

No, what you see

is that most of the tipping points

435

00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,600

on climate and,

436

00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,200

and they're very serious ones, by the way,

437

00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:10,440

are, are reflected in areas

that aren't actually inhabited.

438

00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:16,160

So but the one area

that is really inhabited is Amazonia.

439

00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,000

It's got 40 million people.

440

00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,000

So in a sense, human agency,

441

00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,360

okay, we can do whatever we do

with our cars and other kinds of things.

442

00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:31,200

But in terms of one of the great carbon

engines of the planet,

443

00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,240

it is Amazonia at its heart,

444

00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,720

and it is a highly populated place.

445

00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,320

Even though we have the green blob

problem.

446

00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:41,320

Oh, nothing's there.

447

00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,680

It's just, you know, you see that map?

448

00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:48,240

So, I'll show you,

so let me just quickly go over,

449

00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:50,600

what are the kind of the stakes

450

00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:54,200

because I'm going to talk about failing

states, failing democracies,

451

00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,840

and what that means in terms of the stakes

452

00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,560

for, the planet, for the climate,

453

00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:03,920

as they say.

454

00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,480

Well, I never knew climate change

would happen so fast, but, those of you

455

00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,440

who follow the Great Acceleration know

that we're on an exponential drive.

456

00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,520

So you want to look out.

457

00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,600

So I'm going to try and break

open the green blob for you a little bit

458

00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,680

and give you a bigger picture

of what's going on.

459

00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,200

So one of the things is okay,

I showed you that picture and there

460

00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:26,920

everybody's chewing their nails.

461

00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,640

Oh these big climate tipping points.

462

00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,720

But what's at stake

is when we look at Amazonia,

463

00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,480

what we see is a really important,

464

00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,480

tipping point

having to do with the climate engine,

465

00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,560

both the absorption from the atmosphere

and the storage.

466

00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,680

And when you destroy it,

you release a bunch of carbon.

467

00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:47,520

So there's that.

468

00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,360

And if you destabilize it

so that the system itself

469

00:25:51,360 --> 00:25:56,000

can't reproduce itself, it starts to be

an emitter of carbon itself.

470

00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,720

And we'll get to that later.

471

00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,160

The other thing, which,

472

00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,480

you're probably

more familiar with the question of,

473

00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:08,440

carbon, but perhaps a lot less

so with the importance of Amazonia

474

00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:13,320

as a hydrological driver in the climate,

in the climate and planetary system.

475

00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,960

So one of the things, of course,

my usual obnoxious things.

476

00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,280

Everybody lives Amazonia out.

477

00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,240

It's the size of the United States.

478

00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,560

It's got, you know, a zillion

a zillion of everything in it.

479

00:26:26,120 --> 00:26:29,720

But, drawing up a river set of rivers

480

00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,720

that are one sixth of the world's

freshwater

481

00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,760

is not nothing. And,

482

00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,680

I myself keep

483

00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:42,200

finding myself extremely distressed

at looking at the drawing of the Amazon,

484

00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,160

because of course, this has major effects

more generally.

485

00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,840

And these

I've just mentioned a few of the major

486

00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,920

tributaries

doesn't matter to go through those here,

487

00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,600

but so we have the rivers on the ground,

488

00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,080

but we also have

what are called aerial rivers.

489

00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,240

Now we in here

know that we get aerial rivers.

490

00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,240

That's

where we get our big horrific storms

491

00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,240

that come smashing in at us.

492

00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,680

There are these aerial rivers

that are generated by the Amazon itself.

493

00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,480

And I'll show you a picture in a minute.

494

00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,800

But, they're the key to rain

fed agriculture

495

00:27:18,120 --> 00:27:22,920

in the rest of the hemisphere,

in the rest of the southern hemisphere.

496

00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,000

So what you have to sort of imagine is

497

00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:31,920

if you interfere with those aerial rivers,

you interfere with the hydrological and

498

00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:37,240

watering system for much of the important

agricultural areas of the planet.

499

00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,800

This is also important for shipping.

500

00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,520

There's the ecological thing of rivers,

livelihoods and

501

00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,120

and shipping.

502

00:27:47,120 --> 00:27:50,040

So and water.

503

00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,240

In 2014, so Paulo ran out of water.

504

00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:58,040

It was, of course, another one of these

sort of failures of the aerial River.

505

00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,160

The other thing is,

506

00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:05,080

although we might not care about it

that much, you might not be familiar

507

00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:06,120

with the Pantanal.

508

00:28:06,120 --> 00:28:09,120

I have great pictures,

but I don't have any time to put them up.

509

00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,240

It is sort of the New World Serengeti.

510

00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:18,800

It's, the world's largest wetland,

and about half of it burned this year.

511

00:28:19,360 --> 00:28:20,040

So it's.

512

00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:25,040

And, in the previous bout,

a couple of years ago, something like 17

513

00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:30,400

million vertebrates killed in the process

of drying out and burning up a wetland.

514

00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:35,600

So you want to really think

about the magnitude and the scale

515

00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:41,920

of what political processes

can unleash or can curtail.

516

00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:47,000

So this is an extremely important,

repeating point that I'll be making.

517

00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,200

I have a paper that just came out

on what else?

518

00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,280

Well, in my Valentine to Amazonia

with a bunch of other colleagues

519

00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,040

about the Amazon

hitting its tipping point,

520

00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,840

that is, if it if it gets cleared enough,

it becomes unstable,

521

00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,600

and then it turns into a different kind

of vegetation.

522

00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,320

Now, we don't normally think about

that is going on, but

523

00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,920

processes occur without our intervention.

524

00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,880

So this is also a very

and we're really coming close

525

00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:23,320

to that tipping point, which is again

why it's important to think about what

526

00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:28,880

political actors and actions

and capacities and governance mean

527

00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:34,280

in terms of larger questions

that are, related to our lives.

528

00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,280

But perhaps we don't think about them

quite that way.

529

00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,920

The other thing is those,

and those aerial rivers effect,

530

00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:45,280

and in glaciers

and in snowfall and essentially

531

00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:49,200

are key to a lot of the hydrology

of the Andean states.

532

00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,840

And then, of course, more generally,

the questions of livelihoods

533

00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:58,080

of both urban and rural

and other kinds of dynamics.

534

00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,840

So the stakes are really big on

Amazonian governance.

535

00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,960

It's not just like, well, you know, like

536

00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,280

maybe we'll lose a pupfish or something.

537

00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,200

It's really like

losing continental level ecosystems.

538

00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:14,520

So here's,

539

00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,520

here's but I'm just going to give you

sort of a look at this.

540

00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,000

What you can see here is

this is I'm trying to break

541

00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:22,400

open the green blob for you.

542

00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,400

And what you can see is when we put it,

543

00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,440

when we talk about Amazonian as a biome

544

00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,400

and not just like,

oh, Brazilian Amazon or something.

545

00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:37,320

What you can see is an important element

of shared sovereignty,

546

00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,360

of this area. And,

547

00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,760

I think we have the habit of saying,

well, it's all in Brazil.

548

00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:46,800

It's a lot of it really is.

549

00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,640

But then you can sort of see this,

that there are these little,

550

00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,920

you know, the percent of the biome

is kind of small and,

551

00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,440

you know, like,

why should we care about Ecuador?

552

00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,320

It's only got 1.1%.

553

00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,160

But the point is that in terms

554

00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,240

of their national areas,

they're quite extensive.

555

00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,080

That is, each of these countries

has sovereignty

556

00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,400

over a big, has its national sovereignty.

557

00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:16,920

Its national area is in the Amazon biome,

so that the decisions it makes

558

00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,000

for its national good

559

00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:24,960

have lots of impacts

that we might not, expect them to have.

560

00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,560

So it's very important to understand

561

00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,800

that there are competing different

562

00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:36,160

dynamics that go on on this

that have different kinds of effects.

563

00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,360

So even though it looks small

and remember, it's big.

564

00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:44,360

Amazon, to quote George Bush,

when he discovered that Brazil is big,

565

00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,880

you know, and not to quote a previous

566

00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,960

president, you know, it was worrying

about certain kinds of sizes.

567

00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:56,600

But the point is, Amazonia is really big,

so that even though if you only have

568

00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,480

a fairly small percentage of it,

what you do in terms of its

569

00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,320

of your decision making becomes, problem.

570

00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,400

Now, my I'm just going to give you

a picture of the drying Amazon,

571

00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,520

you know,

these sort of heartbreaking things, these,

572

00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:13,960

aerial rivers.

573

00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,600

This is kind of what this looks like.

574

00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,920

The Amazon sort of sucks water

out of the it's it's more complicated

575

00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:25,440

than I'm going to explain, but, basically

sucks water out of the, the atmosphere

576

00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:29,640

and out of the ground and through various

kinds of water connections.

577

00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,120

And, it creates its own water system.

578

00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,680

This little, diagram

gives you a better sense of it.

579

00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,520

But the point that you can see here

is that the Amazon,

580

00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:45,120

the hydrological system,

is largely a function

581

00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,400

of this biotic pump

known as the Amazon forest.

582

00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,520

So, even though we know

that there have been large

583

00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,760

populations in the past,

their dynamics of,

584

00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:00,360

civilization were somewhat different

from ours, which did not require

585

00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,600

the massive destruction of the forest

itself.

586

00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:08,160

There's many interesting stories to be

told about this, but I don't have time.

587

00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,200

So one of the things is when

588

00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,120

you start to DeForest a lot,

and you have larger

589

00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,760

climate change, that the area becomes

quite vulnerable to forest.

590

00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:23,520

And I think you can get a sense here

of a kind of exploding dynamic.

591

00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:28,000

I'll talk

more about these questions later, but

592

00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:32,920

let me just sort of make a premise

from describe

593

00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,440

a graph that gives

you kind of a premise about where we are

594

00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,320

and why I'm going to make the argument

I am.

595

00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:44,320

And again, it's more complicated

than we can say in the time that we have.

596

00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:49,200

And I'm going to really have to zip,

but what you see is that

597

00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:54,280

when you have actual governance,

and this, period to that,

598

00:33:55,320 --> 00:34:00,120

to my, to our, to my right,

your left is the period in which there

599

00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:04,360

was quite a bit of careful governance,

a lot of transformations that went on.

600

00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,360

This is the first, the,

the second Lula period

601

00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,640

you go through where you start

to see a little instability.

602

00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,640

This is during the impeachment

of Dilma Rousseff

603

00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,360

and, and and the Temer regime.

604

00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:19,320

And then

605

00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,400

in 2019,

606

00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:28,040

you, you

get the entrance of Jair Bolsonaro.

607

00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:32,400

So you go, this is kind of one of those

perfect social science experiments

608

00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:37,000

where you go, okay, we'll have we'll have,

management, governance,

609

00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,080

we'll use, will implement what we say

610

00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,840

our laws will enforce,

and you get that kind of dynamic.

611

00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,960

And then you have the perfect alternative,

612

00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,320

which is Jair Bolsonaro says, let it rip.

613

00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,880

And then you see the deforestation

dynamic like that.

614

00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:58,800

And then we have now for the Lula thing

comes back, decline in deforestation.

615

00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:03,000

But now there's another dynamic going on,

which has to do with,

616

00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:07,480

that is beyond the control of humans,

which is the dynamics of

617

00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,640

desiccation and burning.

618

00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:14,480

But the point that I'm making here,

which you should take or the takeaway is

619

00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,440

lots, you know, governance and management

and enforcement of policies

620

00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,600

and local support as well, versus

621

00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:27,760

pulling everything off

and having it be a less a fair system.

622

00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,320

Well,

623

00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:32,600

here's what you get.

624

00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:36,000

We have I'm

not going to go into too much detail here

625

00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,000

because I don't have very much time.

626

00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,440

Basically what this slide will tell you

627

00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:45,880

is that there's a lot of explosive,

activities,

628

00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,440

a lot of expansion of illegal activities

629

00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:53,760

that is illegal

cultivation of coca, illegal mining,

630

00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,280

illegal timber,

a lot of land grabbing and so on.

631

00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:01,800

And a deep most of this becomes

unrest related over time.

632

00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,040

And global demand

for all of these is very high too,

633

00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,040

for reasons of different kinds

of instabilities.

634

00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,960

So it's important to understand

that this also is reflecting expansion

635

00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:17,240

in clandestine economies

and also with clandestine economies.

636

00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,080

You can also get

a lot of criminal organizations.

637

00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:24,040

So the governance sort of shifts

from what we might call collective,

638

00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,240

state level

governance and local governance

639

00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,360

into criminal organizations.

640

00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:34,640

So, let me go through quickly

and I'm really going to zoom because,

641

00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:36,800

I'm, I'm going to

642

00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,800

try to do this in three minutes.

643

00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,680

What we have

is basically a bunch of failed states now.

644

00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:50,360

So own and have sovereignty

over a large amount of Amazonia.

645

00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:55,440

One Ecuador, as you may have recalled,

is now in a state of exception.

646

00:36:55,440 --> 00:37:00,000

And, they're it's was on the verge

of becoming a narco state.

647

00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,160

It's, it is not really a democratic state

648

00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,160

anymore, even though

it's going to have elections next year.

649

00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,360

And you get an overriding

650

00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,360

of what were actual,

651

00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,400

things such as the, initial day

652

00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,720

have to leave the oil

in the ground in the Yasuni.

653

00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,200

And this has simply been overturned.

654

00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:27,480

So in that sense, the

the state of exception permits

655

00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:32,920

both a kind of militarization

and criminalization of various kinds of,

656

00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:37,000

state.

657

00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,000

How should

we call it, those resisting the state

658

00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:44,080

as well as, those who can benefit from it.

659

00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,480

And also, there's always a little bit

of an alliance going on, as many of you

660

00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,240

might have noticed this summer

that Bolivia seemed to have an utter coup.

661

00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,680

Mr. Fujimori, who sort of invented

662

00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:59,040

the concept in Peru, just recently died.

663

00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,280

But basically there was an attempted coup.

664

00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:07,560

And as the the leader of the coup,

was confronted, he said, no, no,

665

00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:11,480

no, it was he wanted to do this

to get his numbers up.

666

00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:15,000

So in essence,

we have a kind of a big problem.

667

00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,560

And then there is a

the larger, larger problem of,

668

00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,160

kind of divided populism going on between,

669

00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,760

in Bolivia, between,

670

00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,680

Evo Morales and, and who is asking?

671

00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,480

And a great deal of,

672

00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:40,800

how should we say the undermining

and questioning

673

00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,720

the legitimacy of the government.

674

00:38:42,720 --> 00:38:46,200

There's a lot more detail to this in terms

675

00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,920

of how the state itself was dismantled.

676

00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,640

And also the continuing,

677

00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,720

conflict between the Santa Cruz,

the lowland

678

00:38:56,720 --> 00:39:01,680

Amazonian elites,

and the upland, historical elites.

679

00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,800

So in any case, it's a failed

or a failed state.

680

00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:09,240

And in essence,

it hasn't got an operating,

681

00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,560

Amazonian, management, system.

682

00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:17,880

Then I'm going to, the

I just say a few words about,

683

00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:19,640

Peru.

684

00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:24,720

Peru has a habit of kind of,

posing as presidents and,

685

00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:29,720

dissolving its Congress's, currently,

you know, Bill after who

686

00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:34,440

you might have been following,

was famous for her collection of Rolexes.

687

00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:39,360

If you think they cost $10,000, that's

that's only a fraction of what they cost.

688

00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,480

But, as she was put into place,

689

00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:46,680

as Pedro Castillo was arrested,

690

00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,960

there were major massacres

of street protests and so on.

691

00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,760

And again, there

there's a legitimacy crisis,

692

00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:59,120

a failing state,

and essentially no Amazonian management.

693

00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:03,240

And even though it has an expanding,

gold system.

694

00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,960

And Venezuela,

of course, is the sort of poster child for

695

00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,560

maybe not a failed state,

but a fully authoritarian state.

696

00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:15,120

And, even though, rivals were jailed,

697

00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:19,520

they were sent into exile,

protesters were jailed and killed.

698

00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:25,080

It is also, in some kind of crisis.

699

00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:28,200

Essentially, it's become also part of the

the narco

700

00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:31,440

nexus in Amazonia, illegal gold mining.

701

00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:35,320

The upcoming arrow is basically run

by former ELN,

702

00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,320

revolutionaries and the minor and the,

703

00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:41,560

the military.

704

00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,920

And, this is taking place in conservation

areas.

705

00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,560

Okay. I'm

going to just show you a few slides.

706

00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,680

Just trust me on this,

that default submission rates

707

00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,680

are going up with the kind of chaos

that we're seeing.

708

00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:57,760

You can get some volatility, but overall

the trend is very much up.

709

00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,360

And I don't want to go over this

in too much detail,

710

00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,440

but it's easy to see deforestation.

711

00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:09,480

It's less easy to see this dynamic of

illegal mining, particularly gold mining.

712

00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,800

And I'm going to just shoot through this

because I yeah, I'm right to the end here.

713

00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,520

This is what you this is what it looks

like when you look at this.

714

00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:19,960

It looks like little,

you know, a little popcorn.

715

00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,560

But when you look at it on the ground,

it's much more intense.

716

00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:27,280

And of course, the problem here

is the issue of mercury,

717

00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:31,440

toxicity of the rivers

and and of the air's, and soil.

718

00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,960

And this is also what it looks like

719

00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,640

when we start to move into questions

of tipping points.

720

00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,800

What you see is in the pasture

and agriculture and gold areas,

721

00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,840

we start to push Amazonia right

722

00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,840

to the tipping point,

which is supposed to be about 20%.

723

00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:48,880

So again, I'm just leaping through this

like a little gazelle.

724

00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,760

And this area here is the area

which is now

725

00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,520

become an emitter of carbon

rather than an absorber of it.

726

00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,800

It's in the eastern Amazon.

727

00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,520

Another thing that's important

to keep in mind, and you probably don't

728

00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:06,680

have this on your radar particularly, is

that Amazonia is sort of the next major,

729

00:42:07,240 --> 00:42:08,360

oil world.

730

00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:13,280

I'm not going to go into this in too much

detail, but you can see also that in the,

731

00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:14,760

in the

732

00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:18,480

eastern

Amazon in the sort of Caribbean Amazon,

733

00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:24,000

this is now essentially become

client states of, oil companies.

734

00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,880

So and I'm going to show you something.

735

00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:28,400

It also goes further down.

736

00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:33,800

But you probably didn't

have Guyana on your radar

737

00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:37,320

as one of the major oil producers.

738

00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:39,680

Non-OPEC, oil

739

00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,680

producers, it's ahead of Norway.

740

00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:46,080

I can guarantee you, if you went to

Guyana, you would not mistaken

741

00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,280

for Norway

in terms of its social investments.

742

00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,320

So you might ask where that investment

goes.

743

00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:56,880

And I think the Swiss banks might have

some a few words to say about this,

744

00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:01,600

but the point being that you're not seeing

a lot of investment, but you are seeing

745

00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:05,200

some money laundering and various kinds

of deforestation dynamics.

746

00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,320

I'm just finishing up.

747

00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:12,000

And the other thing is that

not only are you seeing sort of,

748

00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,360

how shall we say cartel

749

00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:19,280

economies, but also criminal groups

that are running it.

750

00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:24,640

So within the context

of these failed states and flailing states

751

00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,040

that are sitting distant from the Amazon,

752

00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,320

clinging to power and their own little,

753

00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:34,840

interest in the dynamics,

754

00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,680

it has left a political void.

755

00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,080

It has left a governance void.

756

00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:43,440

And as we know, nature abhors a,

757

00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,360

nature abhors a, a, a vacuum.

758

00:43:49,720 --> 00:43:53,760

And that vacuum is now increasingly filled

by criminal groups,

759

00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:58,800

also with multinational links

to European dynamics as well.

760

00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,280

So the great

761

00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:04,560

Brazilian writer, occultist

762

00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:08,400

Acuna, of whom

I my little heart beats all the time.

763

00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,760

When he went through Amazonia,

764

00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,760

a little more than 100 years

ago, described it

765

00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:20,600

as this the last known

finished play page of Genesis, the place

766

00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:27,000

in which the world was being rewritten

in this kind of marvelous and

767

00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:29,640

illuminating way

768

00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,880

of abundance and glory.

769

00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:35,960

But it may be that

770

00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:39,280

the last, page, unfinished page of Genesis

771

00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,840

looks more like it's less like.

772

00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:46,080

So thank you so much.

773

00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:49,200

I really appreciate these

774

00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:52,200

last, two presentations.

775

00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,840

Things

are coming into perspective right.

776

00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:58,560

One of the questions

that I wanted to address was how people

777

00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,480

organize the multiple paths to democracy.

778

00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,480

Right. And who are the main actors there?

779

00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:09,520

This is a very interesting year for

those of us who do US-Mexico relations.

780

00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,240

We have presidential elections

from both countries, right?

781

00:45:12,240 --> 00:45:16,480

We had Mexican elections in June in Mexico

and in the United States.

782

00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,560

They're coming up in less than a month.

783

00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,240

So it's fascinating to try to explain

784

00:45:21,240 --> 00:45:25,160

the two systems to people,

especially if you get interviewed by,

785

00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,000

TV channels because they want you to do it

in three minutes.

786

00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,000

Exactly. And so,

787

00:45:32,240 --> 00:45:36,120

and this is, there's some, contrast,

right where I said United

788

00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:41,600

States, you have reelections,

you have two parties.

789

00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:45,880

There have been attempts to have,

more than two parties, but basically

790

00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,920

the political scene is dominated

by two parties.

791

00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,880

You can get reelected,

792

00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,560

and the country is leading

is easily to half right.

793

00:45:57,960 --> 00:45:59,000

You red in blue state.

794

00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:03,120

So what's little known is

how Mexico organizes their elections.

795

00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,040

There are seven national parks.

796

00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:11,600

I don't know if you know that, but

also you cannot get reelected in Mexico.

797

00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,880

You get only one term,

although that has been opened up

798

00:46:15,240 --> 00:46:18,240

for especially people in Congress.

799

00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,880

And of course, the headlines last night,

800

00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:25,320

a woman was selected in June

for the first time

801

00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,720

in the 200 years

of Republican history in Mexico.

802

00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,400

And it was interesting, too,

because she was competing,

803

00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:34,480

with another work.

804

00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,480

So Claudia Sheinbaum came up,

805

00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,160

against Xóchitl Gálvez.

806

00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:45,480

So it was known already that a woman

with way would be the president of Mexico.

807

00:46:45,720 --> 00:46:49,240

Indeed, during the election, it's

one of the questions that people ask is

808

00:46:49,240 --> 00:46:50,640

how did that happen?

809

00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:50,960

Right.

810

00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:55,680

How is it

that Mexico was able to elect

811

00:46:56,080 --> 00:47:00,360

and of course, when a woman,

what are the challenges that she's facing?

812

00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,360

Everybody starts at about,

of course, how she would deal with,

813

00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,840

Donald Trump administration,

you know, member.

814

00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:07,000

Right.

815

00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:10,840

Because we have

we had a little preview of the last,

816

00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,560

Trump administration dealing with the past

president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador.

817

00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,920

And so this is a history, I think, of,

818

00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,240

political transitions.

819

00:47:20,240 --> 00:47:24,200

I would, argue that, there had been,

820

00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,680

big political transition

in Mexico, especially,

821

00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:31,480

along these lines of

822

00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,480

the, political actors,

which are political parties,

823

00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:39,960

despite the fact that there were seven

national parties,

824

00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:44,280

these parties clustered alongside

three main candidate.

825

00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,680

So they had two full positions.

826

00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:51,240

It was fascinating to

to see these coalitions at work.

827

00:47:51,240 --> 00:47:55,160

And also the ploy, set of narratives

828

00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,240

to capture the attention

and the loyalty of people.

829

00:47:58,240 --> 00:48:02,640

So and this is a story

also of a new party emerging

830

00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:07,560

and becoming dominant

in, in a very short period of time.

831

00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:10,840

The political party affiliation bound

832

00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:14,280

is called Morena

833

00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:15,600

Movimiento

834

00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:19,560

de Regeneración Nacional,

a movement of national renovation,

835

00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:21,800

which is very interesting.

836

00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:24,920

I mean, the effort and sounds

better than people making that.

837

00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:30,720

And he was there for the first lecture

that they participated was in 2014

838

00:48:31,720 --> 00:48:34,720

there in the mid in the midterm elections.

839

00:48:34,720 --> 00:48:37,640

The administration

that was the first election.

840

00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:41,360

Then the four years later in 2018,

841

00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,960

that was the first presidential election

that Morena participated

842

00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,960

and Andrés

Manuel Lopez Obrador won the presidency.

843

00:48:49,720 --> 00:48:52,280

They assembled together coalition

844

00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,760

that you would call the center,

845

00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:58,440

left coalition with the Green Party,

the Workers Party and Morena.

846

00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,200

So that's the coalition,

847

00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:04,200

like, so,

848

00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:08,000

allow Claudia Sheinbaum to go,

849

00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:09,400

to win the presidency.

850

00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,840

The other coalition

851

00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:13,320

is kind of a mixture.

852

00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,800

I don't know how you call it,

because you have the PRV,

853

00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,720

which is the legacy Communist Party,

Mexico,

854

00:49:19,720 --> 00:49:22,200

which has gone through

many different transformations.

855

00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:27,360

But the PRV was that party

that represented the left in Mexico,

856

00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:31,280

which became

only legally the late 1970s. And,

857

00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:33,160

the last

858

00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:36,160

transformation of that party was still,

859

00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:38,640

to converting to the PRV.

860

00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:43,560

Then we had the private party

that governed Mexico since,

861

00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,320

it's,

the aftermath of the Mexican Revolution

862

00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:51,600

up to the transition, in the 1990s

with this default.

863

00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:55,200

So it was a centered nationalist party.

864

00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:59,000

The PRI was always,

it was hard to classify the work

865

00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:03,960

part of the International Socialist,

they were very nationalistic.

866

00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:07,440

They knew how to,

867

00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:09,240

fix elections.

868

00:50:09,240 --> 00:50:13,240

So that's why they were named,

like the perfect, dictatorship.

869

00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:15,920

And then you have the P,

870

00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:19,360

the, actual National Party,

which is the left

871

00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:23,280

the right,

the center party.

872

00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:25,920

So you had that coalition.

873

00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:30,360

So at the end it they secured

the presidential election or than not.

874

00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:31,640

Yeah.

875

00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:34,640

Claudia Sheinbaum won, in a landslide.

876

00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:37,760

He wasn't he wasn't even close to 80%,

877

00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:40,680

more than the next year.

878

00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:41,760

So it was interesting.

879

00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,920

But these elections

also were very consequential.

880

00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:50,520

All the entire Congress,

the 500, federal representatives

881

00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:54,480

and the entire Senate, 100

generally were up for grabs.

882

00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:55,600

So that's interesting.

883

00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:58,640

So the big political debate

was very localized

884

00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:01,640

already.

885

00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,760

It was, a continuation, a candidate,

886

00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:11,080

the acceleration by whose main message was

that she wanted to continue

887

00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,800

with the policies,

the populist, policies of Andrés

888

00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:19,560

Manuel Lopez Obrador and know position

that,

889

00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:23,160

they they've really tried to figure out

how to frame that.

890

00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:24,960

Right, that,

891

00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,680

I don't you remember the election of

and then another so on.

892

00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:31,480

But they said, you know, if he wins,

Mexico is going to become a Venezuela

893

00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:34,680

because he's basically a leftist,

reckless candidate.

894

00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:38,160

And our democracy is going to go out,

betray.

895

00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:39,960

That didn't happen.

896

00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:41,480

They tried to really,

897

00:51:42,720 --> 00:51:43,320

come up with a

898

00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:47,520

narrative about a fight

for democracy in Mexico.

899

00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:52,880

And this is interesting because Andrés

Manuel Lopez Obrador, in the last year,

900

00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,880

he's been proposed a major leader,

901

00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,640

reforms in Mexico.

902

00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:02,800

And he's a very interesting character.

903

00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:03,760

He leaves office.

904

00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:06,760

He left office with 70% approval rate,

905

00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:08,840

of the electorate.

906

00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,880

This is quite astonishing, right,

that a president

907

00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,280

that covered the country for six years

908

00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:17,680

was such a dominant political figure

909

00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:21,000

that he left office

with such high approval rate.

910

00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:25,040

And in the last month,

the elections happened in June,

911

00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:31,240

the new Congress, with a new composition

where the Morena party

912

00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,800

with its allies

controlled a super majority

913

00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:38,640

and in the House of Representatives,

and they were one

914

00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:42,920

senator shy of controlling

two thirds of the of the Senate.

915

00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:47,200

Actually, it is last month there had been,

916

00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:51,720

about seven constitutional reforms

in Mexico.

917

00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:55,440

Major reforms that were passed because,

918

00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:59,080

Morena was able to gain

919

00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:04,440

one senator from the, power

to vote on these major reforms.

920

00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:09,360

So it was the these elections were very

consequential because in these last month,

921

00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:12,600

and that was before,

the indigenous election.

922

00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,600

But came into office on October 1st.

923

00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:18,160

The transition had been shortened.

924

00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:21,200

It used to be that the new president

would come into office in December.

925

00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:26,400

But, you know that the summer and the fall

that would that was a long time.

926

00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:28,480

So they decided to shorten that.

927

00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:31,600

So Congress, the new Congress

study session

928

00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:35,320

in September, and the president

took office on October 1st.

929

00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:38,320

So it was it was quite

astonishing to be in Mexico City.

930

00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:44,520

Yes. Walking towards the so-called

the main plaza,

931

00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:47,760

where Claudia Sheinbaum will receive,

932

00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:51,000

in a symbolic way, the staff of,

933

00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:55,320

leadership

baSton de Mando with surrender by,

934

00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:59,520

120 women actually on stage.

935

00:53:59,920 --> 00:54:06,120

We, as a symbol of women representation,

indigenous people representation.

936

00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:08,680

And it was a massive mobilization.

937

00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:11,680

So I was thinking, you know what?

938

00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:15,080

What, one of the interesting way,

939

00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,760

the elections would settle

a lot of debate, right?

940

00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:19,800

The elections were not even close.

941

00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:21,760

The Morena

942

00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:23,400

won by a landslide.

943

00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,000

But it's still

there's a lot of questions coming up

944

00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:29,160

and especially thinking

about the relationship between U.S.

945

00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:30,000

and Mexico.

946

00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:31,680

There are some major questions, right?

947

00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:34,720

First of all,

what's going to happen in the, U.S.

948

00:54:34,720 --> 00:54:35,800

election?

949

00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:38,800

That's going to be very interesting,

because, of course,

950

00:54:39,240 --> 00:54:42,440

analysts are saying that, you know,

there might be one scenario

951

00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:46,120

where with Kamala Harris,

there might be some,

952

00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:51,720

openings

to, to figure, multilateral solutions

953

00:54:51,720 --> 00:54:55,600

to a lot of the problems

that us, Mexico are facing.

954

00:54:55,600 --> 00:55:00,640

And then not only is, violence, narcotrafficker, narcotrafficking.

955

00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:05,000

These also be waves of immigrants

coming from Central America,

956

00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:08,440

South America,

but also other parts of the world.

957

00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:12,240

Now they're coming through Mexico

and they're staying in Mexico.

958

00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:16,560

So that would require

not a unilateral solution, but rather

959

00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:20,040

sitting down with a lot of these

countries, Central America,

960

00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:24,440

the US, Mexico, the new, trade agreement

961

00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:27,840

that has been, the framework,

962

00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:33,120

that has allowed Mexico

to become the first trading partner

963

00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:37,080

or the United States

is up for a renegotiation.

964

00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:37,800

They have to come up

965

00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:41,880

with a new version of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement by 20,

966

00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:45,360

2026, in two years.

967

00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:49,400

So that's going to be the first order

of business, really, for the new,

968

00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:53,800

for this new administration, Mexico

also for, for or the US

969

00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:57,920

administration assemble a negotiating team

and come up with,

970

00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:02,960

a new version of the US Senate,

basically trade agreement

971

00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:07,120

that has had a tremendous impact

in terms of the Mexican economy.

972

00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:10,120

The last time, the last agreement

that was,

973

00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:13,440

signed at the end of 2019

974

00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:16,440

really forced literally forced Mexico

975

00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:20,880

to do

and to start a its, labor legal framework.

976

00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:25,160

They have to come up with new structures

with a new federal legal system.

977

00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:27,120

And that was good for a lot of workers.

Right?

978

00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:31,600

I mean, that provided with the emergence

of an independent labor movement.

979

00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:34,080

But now it has to be renegotiated.

980

00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:35,280

There's a lot of questions on,

981

00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:38,080

posting these trade agreements,

982

00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:43,560

especially energy food production,

and especially the, drug trade.

983

00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,680

So those are big issues

that are going to be there.

984

00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:50,560

And that's why I think, some of the issues

is, you know,

985

00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:52,920

people are questioning

if people have a lot of questions

986

00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:56,800

about whether or not

the reforms that are happening in Mexico

987

00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:59,920

are sustainable

and are good for democracy.

988

00:57:00,240 --> 00:57:02,280

And I think we need to pay attention

at that.

989

00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:06,000

The most controversial, reform

that was approved

990

00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,120

was the judicial reform,

991

00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,640

the, party in power

992

00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:14,440

actually proposals and that was approved

993

00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:17,440

that the Supreme Court

and a lot of the judges,

994

00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:21,480

are going to be elected on a popular vote

995

00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,720

that is a source of a lot of controversy.

996

00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:28,480

Clearly, the international press

was totally against that.

997

00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:31,600

The advice

and the US ambassador in Mexico, Ken

998

00:57:31,600 --> 00:57:34,600

Salazar, got into a lot of trouble

because he came out,

999

00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:38,720

he came out in a press conference

speaking against those reforms.

1000

00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:44,880

And, before our Secretary of Mexico

complain about that, there was a huge

1001

00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:48,480

backlash internationally,

1002

00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:51,480

thinking that

maybe there's not a good reform

1003

00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:54,480

from the perspective of the outgoing

president.

1004

00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:56,840

He mentioned that

there was a lot of corruption.

1005

00:57:56,840 --> 00:58:00,320

And the only way to fix it to a stop.

1006

00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:05,720

Elites for controlling the judicial system

was for people to vote.

1007

00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:09,400

Well, of course, Morena is running,

1008

00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:12,440

popular wave.

1009

00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:15,160

It may be the, it is,

1010

00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:18,160

Supreme Court justices are going to elect

be elected.

1011

00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:18,480

Of course.

1012

00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,440

Morena. Well, we may be the short term,

but what is that change?

1013

00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:22,280

That's right.

1014

00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:25,280

Maybe the political will get change. And,

1015

00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:26,400

who knows what's going to happen.

1016

00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:29,720

So that's one example of the major trends

1017

00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:32,760

formation, that are happening in Mexico.

1018

00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:36,800

And there were other big,

so, changes this year.

1019

00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:40,680

But I think keeping, in mind

the larger picture,

1020

00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:46,800

I think that these elections, the fact

that Morena has consolidated, the fact

1021

00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:50,520

that that's a new political party,

which is very interesting, right.

1022

00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:52,920

I will add a new political party can

1023

00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:55,840

so quickly become so dominant.

1024

00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,840

And I think this is one of the questions

I ask you be,

1025

00:59:00,520 --> 00:59:04,200

can you be, too successful in a democracy

for your own good?

1026

00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:06,760

And that's what people are afraid it.

1027

00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:07,560

Mexico. Right.

1028

00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:11,320

Because we had experience

with another political party

1029

00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:14,560

that was so dominant for 75 years,

the PRI.

1030

00:59:14,840 --> 00:59:16,520

Basically, they run the country.

1031

00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:17,960

There was no opposition.

1032

00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,560

So are we running the risk really?

1033

00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:25,200

Go back to that framework

where a party is so dominant that,

1034

00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:28,200

you know, they don't have to negotiate,

they don't have to,

1035

00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:32,400

or really care

about the process of deliberation

1036

00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:37,480

because they are the majority Congress

and they're riding a very, populist boat.

1037

00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:42,680

So I think those are, sort of some issues

that we can think about a lot.

1038

00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:46,080

So the fact gender,

I think that's another important thing.

1039

00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:51,240

How did it happen that a woman was elected

president?

1040

00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:52,200

And I think one thing

1041

00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:55,800

that we need to think about is

it wasn't like it was all of a sudden,

1042

00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,920

talking about emerging to the public,

saying

1043

00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:03,840

there had been reforms in Mexico,

especially, the reforms of,

1044

01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,800

gender parity, not equity parity.

1045

01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:11,160

The electoral system in Mexico demanded

1046

01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:15,240

that all parties, issue

a slate of candidates

1047

01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:19,320

equally along gender lines, 50 or 50%.

1048

01:00:19,920 --> 01:00:24,960

So this is the first election

if we start probation was fully place.

1049

01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:30,200

And, and it has transformed the elections

in Mexico for Congress

1050

01:00:30,200 --> 01:00:33,600

and for the House of Representatives

and the Senate are women.

1051

01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:36,640

The government,

1052

01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:41,040

the cabinet of empowered is 50% women,

52% male.

1053

01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:42,640

So that is very interesting.

1054

01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:46,160

But this is mandated. But, by the reforms,

1055

01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:48,000

in the,

1056

01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:51,000

in the electoral system

crashing down, of course.

1057

01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:57,000

She is, a well known,

political, politician in Mexico.

1058

01:00:57,000 --> 01:00:59,080

She was the governor of Mexico City.

1059

01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,960

And in the old days,

this is another very interesting city

1060

01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:04,240

for those of us

who work in public university.

1061

01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:05,400

She was a leader.

1062

01:01:05,400 --> 01:01:09,880

You see, any woman in the 1990s, that's

how she burst into the public.

1063

01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:11,720

She had,

1064

01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:13,680

the large movement,

1065

01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:17,680

against, the immigration,

the situation in Mexico City.

1066

01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:20,520

So she's been around for quite a while.

1067

01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:25,560

But I think that reform

that demanded, parity between men

1068

01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:30,440

and women in all political position

has made such a tremendous impact.

1069

01:01:30,440 --> 01:01:31,320

And it was a process.

1070

01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:34,400

It's been a long, 20 year

long process of executing that.

1071

01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:36,480

It you see the results here.

1072

01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:37,600

So thank you. So.

1073

01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:41,280

Okay.

1074

01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:42,360

Hello.

1075

01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:45,120

And thank you so much,

Marjorie and David, for organizing this.

1076

01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,000

It's really important that,

1077

01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:49,480

although we are looking forward

and we're excited about the U.S.

1078

01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:53,280

election, we're, you know, keeping an eye

on what's happening in those other

1079

01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:54,920

60 plus elections.

1080

01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:57,760

Or at least some of them,

happening in the world.

1081

01:01:57,760 --> 01:02:02,120

So, I'm going to bring to the table

some insights from the,

1082

01:02:02,440 --> 01:02:05,440

European Parliament elections

that took place in June.

1083

01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:10,640

Just some parts that I find interesting,

some trends, some open questions.

1084

01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:13,760

Of course, there are lots of things

we can discuss here.

1085

01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:17,040

I learned that there is faculty

in the room, people

1086

01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:20,680

who might more know

more about the elections than I do.

1087

01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:23,040

But there are also first year

students in the room.

1088

01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:26,320

So I start out

with a little bit of background.

1089

01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:30,320

Why on the European Parliament elections

so interesting?

1090

01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:34,280

Well, they give us a good starting point

to compare election campaigns

1091

01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:38,600

in European countries,

because all of the 27 member states

1092

01:02:38,840 --> 01:02:41,720

have vastly different political systems,

1093

01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:44,720

different media systems,

different political cultures.

1094

01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:48,160

So when they do their national elections

for national governments,

1095

01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:52,240

national parliaments, it's

really difficult to compare, let's say

1096

01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:57,320

Austria to, Sweden, for instance,

or Germany and Poland.

1097

01:02:57,600 --> 01:03:02,040

But in the European Parliament election,

everyone votes at the same time,

1098

01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:05,520

roughly the same day,

according to the same systems.

1099

01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:10,200

And we can really compare how parties

or politicians, campaign across countries.

1100

01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:14,160

The EU elections are pretty big

and relevant.

1101

01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:17,480

So we have 27 member countries.

1102

01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:21,600

That makes 450 million people

who live there.

1103

01:03:22,320 --> 01:03:27,080

An electorate of 375

million eligible voters.

1104

01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:32,200

That's the second largest, Democratic

electorate in the world after India.

1105

01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:38,600

It's a

pretty big parliament with 720 seats.

1106

01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:42,720

And who gets the seat

also has some relation to the population

1107

01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:47,360

size in the member countries,

not just, the parties, that, run there.

1108

01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:52,760

So we can say it's the largest

simultaneous transnational elections

1109

01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:55,880

that we have, in the world.

1110

01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:59,680

And this is happening

every five years since 1979,

1111

01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:03,960

which is why it's so rare that we have

European elections in the same year

1112

01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:08,520

with US elections that are covered

for this very different election cycle.

1113

01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:12,960

And the principle behind the European

Parliament of the national parliaments

1114

01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:14,680

is subsidiarity.

1115

01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:19,560

So the idea is Europe when it's necessary,

national when it's possible.

1116

01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:24,120

So there's some policy fields

that the European Parliament, is

1117

01:04:25,000 --> 01:04:28,040

has the power to, to,

to discuss and decide.

1118

01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:31,680

That's things like customs

and trade agreements

1119

01:04:31,680 --> 01:04:34,680

or currency, like a, common currency,

the euro.

1120

01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:38,400

There are shared powers when it comes to,

agriculture, energy

1121

01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:40,440

research and science and these things.

1122

01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:42,480

And then there are things

that the national governments

1123

01:04:42,480 --> 01:04:46,480

and sometimes regional governments

and parliaments, get to decide things

1124

01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:49,880

like education, culture, defense

and these things.

1125

01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:54,320

So it is we have European parties,

but it's largely the national parties

1126

01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:57,640

that run the campaigns

for the European Parliament elections.

1127

01:04:57,640 --> 01:05:00,640

And then after the election, the parties

1128

01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:05,880

form blocs, basically party groups

in the European Parliament,

1129

01:05:06,440 --> 01:05:08,880

basically like factions that, that work

1130

01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:12,080

together, and that you can see, here.

1131

01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:13,360

And the interesting thing

1132

01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:16,840

I wanted to point out here,

and that's the first trend I wanted to

1133

01:05:16,880 --> 01:05:20,920

to bring to the table

today, is how very strong the far right,

1134

01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:25,160

has been in these, past elections.

1135

01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:26,640

This year.

1136

01:05:26,640 --> 01:05:31,800

So by now, one fourth, 25% of the seats

in the European Parliament

1137

01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:36,080

are in the hands of far

right, parties in France.

1138

01:05:36,080 --> 01:05:40,280

The far right came at first 30%,

which led Emmanuel

1139

01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:44,240

Macron to dissolve the national parliament

and call for snap elections.

1140

01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:45,600

But that was super smart.

1141

01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:47,640

A not so different discussion.

1142

01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:51,720

In Germany, the far right came in second

with 15%, also super strong.

1143

01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:55,440

So now, they are like 25% of the European

Parliament.

1144

01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:58,040

However, they are not united.

1145

01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:01,440

So we now have three groups

that are all far right.

1146

01:06:01,440 --> 01:06:05,640

But they're not united in one, party

group, in Parliament.

1147

01:06:05,640 --> 01:06:08,880

So we have the Patriots for Europe.

1148

01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:10,880

That's

1149

01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:13,480

a party, with, for instance,

1150

01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:18,240

Viktor Orban's Fidesz party, from Hungary,

the Austrian, FPO.

1151

01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:21,680

And there we have

the Europe of the sovereign nations.

1152

01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:25,760

That's basically only the German AfD,

because nobody wanted to be together

1153

01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:27,120

with them anymore, for reasons.

1154

01:06:27,120 --> 01:06:32,440

I'll just, come to,

and we have the, NCR, faction here.

1155

01:06:32,920 --> 01:06:36,480

There you will find the Fratelli d'Italia,

Giorgia Meloni,

1156

01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:40,680

party, or the Polish, Peace party.

1157

01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:44,360

So, those are all far right parties,

but they're not,

1158

01:06:44,920 --> 01:06:48,120

necessarily friends, with, each other.

1159

01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:51,760

And one reason for that,

especially for the isolation of the German

1160

01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:57,800

AfD, is that their, leading candidate,

Maximilian Krah, was really.

1161

01:06:57,800 --> 01:06:59,640

I mean he's a really scandalous figure.

1162

01:06:59,640 --> 01:07:03,280

He was embroiled in all kinds of

scandals, Chinese espionage.

1163

01:07:04,520 --> 01:07:06,960

No close connections to Russia.

1164

01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:10,840

But most importantly, just before

before the election, he gave an interview

1165

01:07:10,840 --> 01:07:14,040

in Italy, and he really played down

the role of the SS,

1166

01:07:14,880 --> 01:07:18,080

and, you know, the Nazi regime.

1167

01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:22,200

And it's just his inability

to kind of distance themselves,

1168

01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:25,560

dealing in any, meaningful way

1169

01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:28,640

with, the Nazi past of Germany

that really,

1170

01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:32,240

causes this isolation of the German AfD

1171

01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:35,720

within the far right, in Europe.

1172

01:07:35,720 --> 01:07:40,480

And here's a comment by a German,

influencer in a very satirical way,

1173

01:07:40,480 --> 01:07:44,680

obviously, who commented

this kind of being kicked out.

1174

01:07:44,680 --> 01:07:47,880

So Marine Le Pen in France

that she will not she will not be in a,

1175

01:07:47,880 --> 01:07:51,880

in a, in a parliament group with AfD

and then Meloni second

1176

01:07:51,920 --> 01:07:55,200

that that so his influence and hot

so he commented,

1177

01:07:55,760 --> 01:08:00,040

see when it comes to far

right extremism, we Germans needn't worry.

1178

01:08:01,200 --> 01:08:02,320

Our far right

1179

01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:06,120

extremists are too extreme

for the other far right extremist.

1180

01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:08,240

So, yeah, we can still do it.

1181

01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:12,800

So obviously a satirical comment, but,

I think it really, really nails it.

1182

01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:15,360

What, what happened there?

1183

01:08:15,360 --> 01:08:18,840

Another trend, somehow connected to

that is the rise of,

1184

01:08:19,480 --> 01:08:22,400

negativity, in campaigning.

1185

01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:27,960

And I only can show you empirical data

for the EU elections in 14 and 2019,

1186

01:08:27,960 --> 01:08:31,040

because for this year,

we're still analyzing the data.

1187

01:08:31,280 --> 01:08:33,360

So this is from

1188

01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:35,840

Facebook post of political parties

1189

01:08:35,840 --> 01:08:38,840

in the two weeks before the election day,

1190

01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:41,320

for this two years, analyzed

1191

01:08:41,320 --> 01:08:44,800

120 party like 15,000 posts and,

1192

01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:48,840

in 11 or 12 countries, not all of them.

1193

01:08:49,560 --> 01:08:52,280

And the dotted line is 2019.

1194

01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:53,720

The black line is 2014.

1195

01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:59,320

And you can see negative emotions,

were up in 2019, negative campaigning

1196

01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:02,720

meaning saying not vote for us with red,

but don't vote for them.

1197

01:09:02,760 --> 01:09:03,720

It's the end of the world there.

1198

01:09:03,720 --> 01:09:06,160

Super bad is populist content.

1199

01:09:06,160 --> 01:09:09,120

Dramatization is also is also

1200

01:09:10,200 --> 01:09:11,880

on the rise.

1201

01:09:11,880 --> 01:09:16,120

And this has not only to do with the far

right of, you know, the usual suspects,

1202

01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:19,480

but we saw in 2019

it's also conservative parties

1203

01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:22,720

who are increasingly picking up

those narratives. Why?

1204

01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:25,200

Because they benefit on social media

from this.

1205

01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:27,440

They get so much more engagement.

1206

01:09:27,440 --> 01:09:30,960

And that's something we can show

in this paper, that, you know, the way

1207

01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:34,720

social media, especially Facebook, is

built around user engagement,

1208

01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:38,760

they really, really benefit,

from negativity.

1209

01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:41,840

And some European parties

have also complained to Meta's.

1210

01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:45,280

I think the platforms

incentivize them to go more

1211

01:09:45,280 --> 01:09:49,760

and more negative when this is not a way

they actually want to talk to, to voters.

1212

01:09:49,760 --> 01:09:51,040

And, potential.

1213

01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:53,880

So we'll see if this continues.

1214

01:09:53,880 --> 01:09:56,360

Has continued this year by end of October.

1215

01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:59,360

I have data,

but I would very much, expect it,

1216

01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:04,160

expect it to another

more of an open question than a trend.

1217

01:10:04,880 --> 01:10:08,120

Is the, the phenomenon of election

denialism?

1218

01:10:08,120 --> 01:10:11,120

And, of course,

you are well aware of this,

1219

01:10:11,120 --> 01:10:15,960

that's been a lot of this,

those false claims of election fraud.

1220

01:10:15,960 --> 01:10:19,120

Of course, if there is election

fraud, one has to be very open,

1221

01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:20,560

and upfront about that.

1222

01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:22,160

But those false claims,

1223

01:10:22,160 --> 01:10:26,320

to kind of undermine the,

the trust in, electronic institutions.

1224

01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:30,440

And my question is

if this is sort of seeping also into the,

1225

01:10:31,000 --> 01:10:35,320

European, discourse,

if we see more of this in the EU,

1226

01:10:36,000 --> 01:10:39,360

I don't know, the very first paper

I ever wrote possible Lopez Obrador

1227

01:10:39,360 --> 01:10:43,160

and, his claims of fraud in 2006,

when he lost the entire,

1228

01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:45,560

so I kind of

1229

01:10:45,560 --> 01:10:48,560

kind of circling back

to, election, election,

1230

01:10:49,560 --> 01:10:50,600

denialism.

1231

01:10:50,600 --> 01:10:55,480

Here, there are some examples here from

Germany, from some regional elections.

1232

01:10:55,480 --> 01:10:58,800

We just had a couple of weeks back

where you can see similar claims,

1233

01:10:58,800 --> 01:11:03,440

like we know from the US, politicians

who say they will only accept the result

1234

01:11:03,440 --> 01:11:08,400

if they like it and called

for their supporters to kind of volunteer

1235

01:11:08,400 --> 01:11:12,640

to monitor, the counting of votes and

all of these things kind of making them.

1236

01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:15,640

But what I yeah, there will be fraud,

especially mail in ballots,

1237

01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:18,280

super fraudulent presumably.

1238

01:11:18,280 --> 01:11:23,360

So we see some of that probably not as

much as in the US, but, I'm very curious.

1239

01:11:23,360 --> 01:11:26,560

And again, an end of October

I will have we're lagging a bit behind,

1240

01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:28,160

but this project unfortunately.

1241

01:11:28,160 --> 01:11:31,120

So I can't give

you any numbers. Right here.

1242

01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:32,760

So what

1243

01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:36,600

is interesting when we compare this

with the US, as I said, it's a really

1244

01:11:36,840 --> 01:11:40,120

large and big, election

year, inclement election.

1245

01:11:41,400 --> 01:11:44,600

But we'll also do us actually

pretty much an outlier system

1246

01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:47,040

with that political system

and perhaps the EU elections

1247

01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:50,440

also an outlier

because it's a transnational, election.

1248

01:11:50,440 --> 01:11:53,440

But I think one thing we definitely have

in common is the vulnerable

1249

01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:56,920

off our elections of election campaigns

when it comes to,

1250

01:11:57,440 --> 01:12:01,000

disinformation campaigns, the role of AI,

the potential

1251

01:12:01,000 --> 01:12:04,000

of seeing more and more deepfakes,

1252

01:12:04,200 --> 01:12:06,680

made with AI.

1253

01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:07,680

This year, of course.

1254

01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:09,320

And in the future.

1255

01:12:09,320 --> 01:12:15,400

So far, there is more anecdotal evidence,

especially from, voices

1256

01:12:15,440 --> 01:12:18,800

from in election in Slovakia, last fall,

1257

01:12:19,440 --> 01:12:22,080

there have been some,

1258

01:12:22,080 --> 01:12:27,360

this information campaign since kind of

mirroring really existing media websites.

1259

01:12:27,360 --> 01:12:31,960

But, you know, just changing the UI

a little bit, that you can have lots of,

1260

01:12:32,800 --> 01:12:35,080

false information on there,

but people actually think

1261

01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:38,400

they are on the, on the website

of a trusted, the news site,

1262

01:12:39,880 --> 01:12:43,200

some sort

of deepfakes, but no real big campaigns

1263

01:12:43,200 --> 01:12:46,640

that could really kind of swing

an election or anything like that.

1264

01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:49,360

Now, we could say we

perhaps were lucky so far,

1265

01:12:49,360 --> 01:12:53,120

but I think, again, with election

denialism, we have to look more

1266

01:12:53,120 --> 01:12:57,960

to the past campaigns and see

especially how this connects with, claims

1267

01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:02,360

of presumed election fraud

if there's no election fraud happening.

1268

01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:06,640

But you claim there is a kind of evidence

and then the ability of creating

1269

01:13:06,640 --> 01:13:09,800

images and videos through France

and I stuff

1270

01:13:10,480 --> 01:13:14,040

ballot boxes and stuff

like that comes in very, handy.

1271

01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:18,560

So the question in the US and in Europe is

how can we safeguard our campaigns?

1272

01:13:19,200 --> 01:13:22,840

But still maintain

freedom of speech?

1273

01:13:24,040 --> 01:13:25,920

We see that, the US

1274

01:13:25,920 --> 01:13:29,880

voters are worried about AI

and the, upcoming elections.

1275

01:13:30,120 --> 01:13:33,600

They also see that the platforms

are responsible,

1276

01:13:34,200 --> 01:13:38,360

to kind of taking care of that

and mitigating their collateral effects.

1277

01:13:39,400 --> 01:13:41,800

We do have some regulation in Europe

1278

01:13:41,800 --> 01:13:46,720

that we do not have, here in the US out

there is

1279

01:13:47,960 --> 01:13:51,720

the Digital Services Act was passed,

last year, the AI act.

1280

01:13:51,960 --> 01:13:55,400

And one thing that's interesting

about the Digital Services Act is that it

1281

01:13:55,400 --> 01:13:58,480

forces platforms to give us some reports,

some transparency.

1282

01:13:58,840 --> 01:14:01,720

So this is, what, X, what's going on?

1283

01:14:01,720 --> 01:14:05,680

X, for instance, they were asked

how many like what are the language

1284

01:14:05,680 --> 01:14:09,240

capabilities

of your content moderators in Europe.

1285

01:14:10,600 --> 01:14:14,360

So we they don't have a lot of content

moderators, 20 something.

1286

01:14:15,000 --> 01:14:17,920

They had one person that spoke Dutch,

1287

01:14:17,920 --> 01:14:21,160

let's say that from 2023, there was

a national election in the Netherlands.

1288

01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:25,160

There's one person that speaks Polish, 81

that speak German. Wow.

1289

01:14:25,760 --> 01:14:26,600

Great.

1290

01:14:26,600 --> 01:14:29,960

So you see, this is

they are not really taking this seriously.

1291

01:14:30,400 --> 01:14:33,040

Just, you know,

if you look at the number of, you know,

1292

01:14:33,040 --> 01:14:37,720

language, language capabilities of content

moderators, that is very speaking.

1293

01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:39,960

How much speaking for itself?

1294

01:14:39,960 --> 01:14:44,480

What we also do have in common

is that for scholars and independent

1295

01:14:44,480 --> 01:14:49,400

monitoring institutions, it's

next to impossible to really monitor

1296

01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:52,520

what's going on social media platforms

in election campaigns

1297

01:14:52,800 --> 01:14:55,800

these days,

because data access was always bad.

1298

01:14:55,800 --> 01:14:59,760

It has become even worse,

in the past years and months.

1299

01:15:00,120 --> 01:15:03,400

So again, the Digital Services Act, in

the EU

1300

01:15:03,600 --> 01:15:07,960

is a little sliver line on the horizon

because it contains one article, article

1301

01:15:07,960 --> 01:15:11,640

40, that gives scholars,

for the first time,

1302

01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:15,760

a legal right to access platform data

for certain kinds of research questions

1303

01:15:15,760 --> 01:15:19,040

when they connect to high risk, things,

in the union.

1304

01:15:19,800 --> 01:15:23,240

If you want to know more about this,

I run a research project,

1305

01:15:23,440 --> 01:15:27,480

that's kind of tracking the application

scholars sent to platforms.

1306

01:15:27,480 --> 01:15:32,040

If you if you apply for access in a

that the answer is the answer yes or no.

1307

01:15:32,040 --> 01:15:37,800

And like, what's the what's the

the reasoning, there and also doing

1308

01:15:37,800 --> 01:15:41,920

some, advisory work for policymakers

on how to implement data access.

1309

01:15:41,920 --> 01:15:44,840

So if you're struggling with this,

also try to figure out how

1310

01:15:44,840 --> 01:15:48,040

this can be useful for us scholars,

not just for European scholars.

1311

01:15:49,160 --> 01:15:49,520

Yeah.

1312

01:15:49,520 --> 01:15:51,080

Talk to me. And I'm stopping here.

1313

01:15:51,080 --> 01:15:52,480

So we still have some time

for this question.

1314

01:15:52,480 --> 01:15:53,280

Thank you.

1315

01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:56,280

1316

01:15:56,640 --> 01:15:57,800

Wow. Well,

1317

01:15:57,800 --> 01:16:02,280

there was quite a wealth of information,

different perspectives

1318

01:16:02,280 --> 01:16:06,600

on from the discursive

narrative level to the symbolic cultural,

1319

01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:11,720

the environmental impacts

and material impacts, economic impacts,

1320

01:16:12,480 --> 01:16:16,560

of these elections that we're seeing,

we want to have some time for you to talk.

1321

01:16:16,560 --> 01:16:19,640

But before we invite question,

1322

01:16:19,640 --> 01:16:22,800

could you at least just turn to each

other, turn to someone near you and say,

1323

01:16:22,920 --> 01:16:24,240

what are you kind of takeaway?

1324

01:16:24,240 --> 01:16:28,520

What's some big takeaway from this

or some question that you have?

1325

01:16:28,560 --> 01:16:31,920

Let's spend one minute talking

with each other, and then we'll take

1326

01:16:31,920 --> 01:16:36,840

whatever time we had left before people

come into the room.

1327

01:16:37,120 --> 01:16:41,320

1328

01:16:43,320 --> 01:16:44,240