(Photo courtesy of NGO Monitor)
About the Talk
From the perspective of Israeli security, the downfall of many of the Middle East's autocratic regimes can be characterized as "the best of times", and the worst. Old foes and their armies are gone in Iraq, Libya, and, for the most part, Syria. The Sunni-Shia wars have brought cooperation and even quasi-alliances with the Sunni states, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf kingdoms, while long-standing ties with Jordan have strengthened even further. In Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the smaller armed groups are isolated and the capabilities are strained. Even Sudan, whose territory was used as a platform for the shipment of arms to Hforamas, has established links to Israel in the security realm.
At the same time, threats are increasing in other dimensions, including post-sanctions Iran and its allies (particularly Hezbollah), and from the mass terror and regional instability through the actions of groups such as ISIS in Syria (including along the borders in the Golan Heights and Sinai). Most Israeli leaders view the nuclear agreement with Iran as insufficient, at best, while providing Iran with the resources to dangerously expand its military capabilities and those of Hezbollah. For the first time, direct confrontations between Israel and Iranian forces operating in Syria are possible, and even likely.
The withdrawal of the US under the Obama administration from an active role in regional security, in parallel to the greatly expanded Russian role, presents additional challenges. Since the 1950s and the Baghdad Pact, the US has been a fundamental source of regional stability, and from the mid-60s, Washington was Israel's primary strategic guarantor and a means of offsetting chronic asymmetry. If the US withdrawal continues after Obama, this will add to Israel's strategic challenges.
In examining Israeli options in different scenarios, this presentation will consider the options, advantages and disadvantages in the core dimensions of deterrence (conventional and unconventional) and pre-emption, military technology to offset asymmetry, alliances (particularly with the US), and normative factors that impact on the use of military force (international law and human rights).
About the Speaker
Prof. Gerald Steinberg is professor of Political Studies at Bar Ilan University, where he founded the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation. His research interests include international relations, Middle East diplomacy and security, the politics of human rights and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), Israeli politics and arms control. He is a member of Israel Council of Foreign Affairs; the Israel Higher-Education Council, Committee on Public Policy; the research group of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI); and the Inter-parliamentary Coalition for Combating Antisemitism (ICCA). He is also the founder and president of the organization NGO Monitor.
Steinberg has authored several books and numerous book chapters and articles including, recently, "EU Foreign Policy and the Role of NGOs: The Arab-Israeli Conflict as a Case Study" (European Foreign Affairs Review, 2016); "Conflict or Conflict Management in Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations?" (Orient, Deutschen Orient-Intsitut, Berlin, 2015); “Uncivil Society: Ideology, the Durban Strategy, and Antisemitism” (The Yale Papers: Antisemitism in Comparative Perspective, Charles Asher Small ed., Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy (ISGAP) 2015); and Best Practices for Human Rights and Humanitarian NGO Fact-Finding (with Anne Herzberg and Jordan Berman, 2012).
He has addressed the UN Human Rights Council, testified in the Knesset, in the Parliaments of the European Union, UK, Spain, Switzerland, and made presentations at conferences in South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and elsewhere. His op-ed columns are published in Wall St. Journal (Europe), Financial Times, Ha’aretz, International Herald Tribune, Jerusalem Post, and other publications, and has appeared as a commentator on the BBC, CBC, CNN, and NPR.
Sponsor(s): Younes and Soraya Nazarian Center for Israel Studies