In a talk hosted by the Y&S Nazarian Center, Professor Gerald Steinberg of Bar-Ilan University spoke about traditional Israeli security issues and the new threats posed by years of regional instability.

“Israel's goal of trying to maintain as much stability as possible is confronting the realities of the region.”

UCLA Younes and Soraya Nazarian Center for Israel Studies, December 1, 2016 - Last Monday, Bar-Ilan University Professor and security expert Gerald Steinberg spoke about the traditional security threats Israel has faced and how those challenges have changed in recent years.

“One of the constant themes for Israeli security is the emphasis on stability,” Steinberg explained. “Israel’s goal of trying to maintain as much stability as possible is confronting the realities of the region.”

Traditionally, Israel has had to contend with a series of disadvantages when dealing with neighbors in a number of areas, including size, population, resources, the number of allies and deterrence capabilities, Steinberg said. The country has historically tried to develop the means to offset these asymmetries.

While Steinberg maintains that these variables are still important, he argues they are no longer as prominent as they once were thanks to developments over the past several decades.

For example, demographic and size factors aren’t as important because conventional wars are no longer a primary concern thanks to a long-period without any large-scale conflicts. Recent events in the Middle East have also rendered regional states incapable of launching any attack.

“Conventional attacks are no longer a serious threat,” Steinberg asserted. “The Syrian army today is essentially non-existent and the Iraqis are not capable of undertaking any major actions.”

Furthermore, Steinberg said Israel has developed a strong economy that maximizes the resources at its disposal and a significant military industry which, in conjunction with support from the US and other countries, has given it substantial deterrence capabilities.

And in contrast to previous regional isolation, Israel has established a strong partnership with Egypt and cooperates today with several of the conservative Sunni monarchies to counter strategic threats from Iran.

However, Steinberg emphasized that despite these positive trends for Israel’s security, some of the traditional disadvantages Israel has faced remain important while years of instability have also created a new set of challenges.

Steinberg outlined the primary threats Israel faces today: large-scale rocket bombardments by Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran and low-level terror.

Instability in neighboring Syria has increased the threat of attacks by Hezbollah with the support of Iran. The militant group is active in the country and may seek to operate from the Syrian border with Israel.

Steinberg also spoke about the Syrian conflict’s impact on Jordan, where a large population of Syrian refugees reside. The Bar-Ilan University professor spoke about the potential security challenges that might emerge if the country’s stability were to deteriorate.

“While conventional wars require large numbers of combatants, security operations to address rocket attacks and low-level terror attacks also require sizeable military forces,” Steinberg said, emphasizing the demographic challenges Israel still faces in ensuring its security.

These forces are necessary to locate and destroy the rockets and launchers scattered in homes, schools and other structures, as well as tunnels and underground bunkers, Steinberg explained.

He also mentioned that Israel has recently been forced to contend with the diminishing presence of a traditional ally, the United States, which has served as a reliable support system.

“Israel has reacted to this by extending its network,” Steinberg said, referring to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s outreach to the Russian leadership, which has taken an increasingly proactive role in the region.

Steinberg concluded his Monday talk with recommendations for addressing the major threats Israel will face in the future.

“Despite everything, we still need a large army to deal with terrorism and rocket attacks,” Steinberg said. “And Israel also needs political support which has been the biggest point of friction between the US and Israel during the Obama administration.”