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thank you for joining us during the
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moment of silence for in honor of mr.
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George Floyd I would like to I would now
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like to welcome you to see Matt's second
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virtual webinar I'm Manny jad the deputy
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director of the center for Middle East
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development we'll begin shortly but
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first I wanted to share a few notes with
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you while you can see our panelists we
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cannot see or hear you if you're joining
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us using zoom please note the chat box
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at the bottom of the screen we will
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share announcements during the talk with
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you there if you have questions for our
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speaker please type them in the Q&A box
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and also add your name your country
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and/or affiliation before you ask the
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question keep your question concise so
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that we can answer as many questions as
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possible during the Q&A since the talk
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will be recorded your name country
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and/or affiliation will be announced
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only the SEMA team will be able to see
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your questions in some rare cases we
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will answer your question in writing in
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the Q&A box if you're joining us on
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YouTube you will not be able to ask a
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question because comments will be
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disabled we're recording the entire
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presentation today and the recording
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will be available after the event on the
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sea bed web page YouTube page and
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Facebook page we hope that you enjoy
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today's very timely talk now it's my
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distinct pleasure to introduce you to
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see meds director professor steven
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spiegle Thank You Manny let me welcome
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you to a very special meeting with zebb
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first that will cover the American
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political campaign the impact of the
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corona virus the effect on America's
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relationship with the Middle East and
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the impact of America's society and
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politics of the crisis ignite ignited by
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the death of George Floyd
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let me begin by thanking our co-sponsors
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all from UCLA the lessons School of
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Public Affairs the vertical Center for
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international relations the lioness
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Nazarian Center for Israel Studies and
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the Department of Public Policy and we
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are so delighted that so
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you have choices chosen to join us our
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speaker today is that first is a very
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special internationally renowned
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corporate and political strategist who
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has advised numerous world leaders chief
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executives and some of the world's most
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successful corporations and these are
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just a small number of his experiences
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and activities it is no wonder that he
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can deal with several current crises and
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issues simultaneously ladies and
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gentlemen
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zebb first thank you Steve before I
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begin I want to caution everyone and
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frankly question myself that we're
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witnessing an unprecedented and
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unimaginable series of profoundly
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critical challenging and dangerous
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events from the murder of George Flinn
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to the Cova 19 pandemic and the economic
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the deep economic recession engaging or
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participating in a session whose
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objective is to offer a realistic or
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honest analysis of the state of the u.s.
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presidential campaign or predicting its
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outcome
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is in my opinion a fool's game under
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normal circumstances all the more so
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today so with this in mind let's begin
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and I admit at the outset that I am a
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congenital political fool I'm sure many
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of you are aware of the famous quote of
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Tip O'Neill that all politics is local
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this is even more so in an election year
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when an incumbent may use foreign policy
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as a tool of distraction to draw voters
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attention away from domestic problems in
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an effort to improve his chances of
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being reelected Donald Trump had
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expected to win his second term in the
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White House on the strengths of a
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booming economy a robust stock market
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and a historically low unemployment rate
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kovat 19 has put an end to that strategy
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instead over 100,000 Americans have lost
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their lives more than 40 million
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Americans have lost their livelihoods
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the economy isn't freefall and the shape
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and timing of our eventual economic
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recovery is uncertain add to this the
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protests over the murder of George Floyd
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in the hands of the Minneapolis police
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that have engulfed the nation and we're
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dealing with a confluence of crises that
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is unprecedented in American
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presidential politics as a result the
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election on November 3rd will serve not
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only as a referendum on President
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Trump's record of managing kovat 19 or
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an expression of public confidence in
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his ability to get the economy growing
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again it will also serve as broad
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judgment of his ability as president and
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as a human being to bring this divided
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nation back together and set it on
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course toward a spiritual recovery
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however policy and politics are one in
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the same for the Trump administration
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and serve Trump's over arching political
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goal of winning a second term in the
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White House in that sense US policy in
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the Middle East is just another tool
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that the true
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campaign is utilizing to distract the
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president's electoral base and make the
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election about anything Israel or Iran
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or China or Russia and now largely
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peaceful protests which Trump portrays
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as domestic acts of terror accept what
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it is really about what this election is
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really about is Trump's management of
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coronavirus and the ensuing economic
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collapse as well as his deafness to the
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racial and socio-economic disparities
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that have been amplified not only by
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covered 19 but by his inability or
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refusal to acknowledge the deep pain of
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the african-american community and the
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endemic and historic racism that's
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deeply embedded in segments of the white
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community this strategy doesn't strike
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me as very effective
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Trump's base of largely white
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working-class conservative rural voters
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and evangelical Christians already
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narrow in 2016 has shrunk even further
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as a larger portion of women and
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suburban voters abandoned the Republican
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Party in the 2018 midterms
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additionally recent polling has shown
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that voters over 65 are beginning to
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turn away from Trump over his management
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of the corona virus pandemic finally
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Trump's response to the murder of George
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Floyd and subsequent protests is further
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harming his reelection chances by making
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voters more likely to support his
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Democratic opponent Joe Biden something
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that I'll be discussing at a later point
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so let me begin first with Trump the
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evangelical community and Israel let's
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begin with the roll is realest playing
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in this year's presidential election it
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would be a mistake to think that the
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Trump administration's pro-israeli
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policies from moving the US Embassy to
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Jerusalem leaving the Iran deal and
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recognizing Israel's annexation of the
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Golan Heights were devised in an effort
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to increase Trump's share
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of the american-jewish vote I have
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always believed that it would be a
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catastrophic event it would take a
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catastrophic event for a Republican
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nominee to get more than 30 or 35
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percent of the Jewish vote in fact
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polling of American Jews has
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consistently shown that the majority
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oppose these measures the one exception
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is the Orthodox Jewish community whose
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members overwhelmingly support Trump
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however their numbers are too small to
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make any sort of electoral difference in
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the presidential campaign
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so rather in my opinion the ultimate
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target group for these policies are
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evangelical Christians in the United
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States as many of you know the State of
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Israel Israeli control of Jerusalem and
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the West Bank hold deep religious
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meaning for the evangelical Christian
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community in the United States as the
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u.s. grows more racially and ethnically
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diverse as well as less religious it is
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white evangelicals in particular who
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have emerged as a major building block
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of the Republican coalition 26 percent
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of voters self-identified as white
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evangelical Christians in 2016 of those
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81 percent voted for Trump according to
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Pew Research the 2016 national election
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pool exit survey estimated that white
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evangelicals made up 46 percent of
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trumps coalition compared to just 9
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percent of Clinton's simply put if
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President Trump does not maintain and
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even increase his support with this
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group he will be just another American
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looking for a new job come January 2021
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to appreciate just how much electoral
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influence evangelicals have keep in mind
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their significant share in swing states
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like North Carolina where they represent
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38 percent of the electorate Michigan
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where they represent 28% and Wisconsin
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where they represent 27% in a Pew
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Research survey carried out in February
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2020 on the eve of the kovat 19 outbreak
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81% of evangelicals said that shrimp
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fights for their cause
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76 percent of evangelicals said they
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agree with him on most issues and 66
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percent said that the Trump
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administration has helped their
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interests and they have a good reason to
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think that way since his election Trump
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has appointed two conservative Supreme
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Court justices and named more judges all
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hardline conservatives to the appellate
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courts than any other president during
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the first three years in office
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considering many of the Trump appointees
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relative youth his agenda the Trump
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agenda will continue to impact our lives
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long after President Trump himself has
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gone from the White House when it comes
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to foreign policy Trump has also
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delivered on his campaign promises to
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the evangelical community by relocating
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the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem
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and withdrawing the u.s. from the Iran
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nuclear deal all of that was good but
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perhaps not good enough even though
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white evangelicals turned out to vote in
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the 2018 midterm congressional elections
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in record numbers making up 26% of voter
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turnout despite being only 15 point
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three percent of the voting population
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they're much more of the general
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population their support for Republican
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candidates decreased by six points from
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2016 to now in 2016 they were at 81% as
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I mentioned and now they're at 75
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combined with diminished support from
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other major religious groups including
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Catholics and other Protestant groups
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the myth
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terms cost the Republican Party control
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of the House of Representatives in
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Congress more recently Trump's job
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approval among white evangelicals has
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fallen dramatically to 55 percent the
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lowest rating since the start of the
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kovat 19 crisis and down 7 points from a
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high point in mid-april
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similarly his approval among the general
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population declined by 6 points during
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that period to 40% if anything the car
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novice the corona of the corona virus
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pandemic the ensuing economic recession
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and the current civil unrest are making
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donald trump's need for evangelical
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support even more urgent a recent visit
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to Jerusalem by Secretary of State Mike
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Pompeo illustrates the importance of
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Israel and Trump's re-election calculus
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Pompeyo was there presumably to try to
280
00:12:51,870 --> 00:12:56,490
come to an agreement with Prime Minister
281
00:12:54,270 --> 00:12:59,339
Benjamin Netanyahu on the scope and
282
00:12:56,490 --> 00:13:02,880
timing of a potential annexation of the
283
00:12:59,339 --> 00:13:05,730
West Bank in reality pumps objectives
284
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:08,670
also included Iran China which we'll
285
00:13:05,730 --> 00:13:11,160
discuss later as well as an effort to
286
00:13:08,670 --> 00:13:13,410
burnish his own image and advance his
287
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,540
own electoral ambitions that extend to
288
00:13:13,410 --> 00:13:19,290
the Senate and potentially the White
289
00:13:15,540 --> 00:13:22,080
House as you recall Trump's Mideast
290
00:13:19,290 --> 00:13:25,170
peace plan released in January clears
291
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:27,500
the way for Israel to annex up to 30% of
292
00:13:25,170 --> 00:13:30,690
the West Bank the Trump administration
293
00:13:27,500 --> 00:13:33,270
however has since made clear that the
294
00:13:30,690 --> 00:13:34,589
annexation must be conditioned on Israel
295
00:13:33,270 --> 00:13:36,690
entering into peace talks with the
296
00:13:34,589 --> 00:13:39,620
Palestinians and coordinated with
297
00:13:36,690 --> 00:13:42,930
Washington over the past several weeks
298
00:13:39,620 --> 00:13:45,029
Trump administration officials have
299
00:13:42,930 --> 00:13:47,339
repeatedly communicated to the new
300
00:13:45,029 --> 00:13:48,810
Israeli government that the United
301
00:13:47,339 --> 00:13:51,120
States does not want Israel to make
302
00:13:48,810 --> 00:13:53,490
unilateral moves towards annexation at
303
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:55,830
least not at this time
304
00:13:53,490 --> 00:13:58,620
Jared Kushner has consistently advocated
305
00:13:55,830 --> 00:14:01,140
for a more cautious approach that
306
00:13:58,620 --> 00:14:03,329
involves some sort unknown to us right
307
00:14:01,140 --> 00:14:05,430
now some sort of negotiations with the
308
00:14:03,329 --> 00:14:07,460
Palestinians and a certain degree of
309
00:14:05,430 --> 00:14:10,910
legitimacy from the Arab world
310
00:14:07,460 --> 00:14:12,980
to be sure persuading the Palestinians
311
00:14:10,910 --> 00:14:15,140
to return to the negotiation table
312
00:14:12,980 --> 00:14:17,779
perhaps with a counterproposal to the
313
00:14:15,140 --> 00:14:19,660
annexation plan would play well with
314
00:14:17,779 --> 00:14:22,490
Trump's evangelical supporters and
315
00:14:19,660 --> 00:14:24,800
strengthen his reputation as the deal
316
00:14:22,490 --> 00:14:26,930
maker in chief while temporarily
317
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:29,089
stabilizing the situation on the ground
318
00:14:26,930 --> 00:14:32,839
at least until after the November
319
00:14:29,089 --> 00:14:35,000
election in the meantime kovat 19 has
320
00:14:32,839 --> 00:14:37,279
largely disrupted the political process
321
00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:39,370
in Israel once the public health
322
00:14:37,279 --> 00:14:41,990
situation is fully under control
323
00:14:39,370 --> 00:14:44,060
Netanyahu's agenda will likely be
324
00:14:41,990 --> 00:14:46,970
dominated by his corruption trial as
325
00:14:44,060 --> 00:14:49,279
well as some serious decisions his
326
00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:51,589
government he will have to make to help
327
00:14:49,279 --> 00:14:53,149
restart the Israeli economy after its
328
00:14:51,589 --> 00:14:56,029
shutdown which they are in the process
329
00:14:53,149 --> 00:14:57,640
of doing right now in this situation it
330
00:14:56,029 --> 00:15:00,170
becomes an open question whether
331
00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:02,779
Netanyahu would actually proceed with
332
00:15:00,170 --> 00:15:06,110
legal annexation as we understand it
333
00:15:02,779 --> 00:15:07,910
after July 1 by legal the jury
334
00:15:06,110 --> 00:15:10,010
annexation I mean that he would formally
335
00:15:07,910 --> 00:15:11,839
move ahead with bringing the question of
336
00:15:10,010 --> 00:15:12,560
annexation of the Jordan Valley before
337
00:15:11,839 --> 00:15:15,170
the Knesset
338
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:17,600
another potential course of action which
339
00:15:15,170 --> 00:15:20,860
Israel could announce that it will
340
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:24,110
purple it will permanently maintain a
341
00:15:20,860 --> 00:15:27,709
security border or a security forces in
342
00:15:24,110 --> 00:15:30,050
the Jordan Valley alternatively some
343
00:15:27,709 --> 00:15:31,940
believe that Netanyahu would go through
344
00:15:30,050 --> 00:15:34,400
with the annexation precisely in order
345
00:15:31,940 --> 00:15:36,620
to distract the public from the economic
346
00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,089
problems facing the country much like
347
00:15:36,620 --> 00:15:41,690
Trump is doing here in the United States
348
00:15:38,089 --> 00:15:44,380
as well as distracting his public from
349
00:15:41,690 --> 00:15:47,779
his legal problems as his trial begins
350
00:15:44,380 --> 00:15:49,850
others also point out that Netanyahu has
351
00:15:47,779 --> 00:15:52,820
a strong incentive to move ahead with
352
00:15:49,850 --> 00:15:56,089
annexation before the US election out of
353
00:15:52,820 --> 00:15:58,209
concern that Joe Biden will win in
354
00:15:56,089 --> 00:16:02,839
November and would dramatically reshape
355
00:15:58,209 --> 00:16:04,550
US policy on Israel and Palestine Biden
356
00:16:02,839 --> 00:16:05,690
supports the two-state solution as it
357
00:16:04,550 --> 00:16:08,149
was understood by the Obama
358
00:16:05,690 --> 00:16:10,399
administration and has pledged to
359
00:16:08,149 --> 00:16:12,560
restore diplomatic relationships with
360
00:16:10,399 --> 00:16:16,160
the Palestinian Authority severed by
361
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:18,110
Trump however if he were elected Biden
362
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,730
would unlikely apply significant
363
00:16:18,110 --> 00:16:21,320
pressure to Israel over the settlements
364
00:16:19,730 --> 00:16:23,540
or enter into new
365
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:25,670
oceans immediately with the Palestinians
366
00:16:23,540 --> 00:16:28,100
he has also indicated that he wouldn't
367
00:16:25,670 --> 00:16:30,700
condition US military aid to Israel on
368
00:16:28,100 --> 00:16:33,080
its policies towards the Palestinians or
369
00:16:30,700 --> 00:16:37,040
he wouldn't move the US Embassy from
370
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:38,210
Jerusalem back to television let me now
371
00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:41,000
briefly address the Trump
372
00:16:38,210 --> 00:16:42,910
administration's concerns about Chinese
373
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:45,500
investment in Israel particularly
374
00:16:42,910 --> 00:16:48,530
sensitive technology and infrastructure
375
00:16:45,500 --> 00:16:51,680
projects such as Israel's 5g network and
376
00:16:48,530 --> 00:16:53,930
the strategic port of Haifa China has
377
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:57,650
emerged here in the United States as a
378
00:16:53,930 --> 00:17:00,320
rare bipartisan issue in this year the
379
00:16:57,650 --> 00:17:03,170
presidential politics with both Trump
380
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:05,240
and Biden and their campaigns seeking to
381
00:17:03,170 --> 00:17:08,150
position their candidate as the right
382
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:10,910
man to take on Beijing and spending
383
00:17:08,150 --> 00:17:13,550
millions of dollars on ads attacking
384
00:17:10,910 --> 00:17:17,120
each other's record on China as overly
385
00:17:13,550 --> 00:17:19,310
accommodating President Trump is also
386
00:17:17,120 --> 00:17:22,670
specifically blaming Beijing for the
387
00:17:19,310 --> 00:17:25,339
pandemic that pushed the US economy into
388
00:17:22,670 --> 00:17:28,760
recession this message is resonating
389
00:17:25,339 --> 00:17:31,190
with nearly half of American voters 48%
390
00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:33,830
of Americans and roughly four and five
391
00:17:31,190 --> 00:17:36,350
Republicans who believe that China is
392
00:17:33,830 --> 00:17:39,650
mostly responsible for the current state
393
00:17:36,350 --> 00:17:42,460
of kovat 19 because the virus originated
394
00:17:39,650 --> 00:17:46,250
there according to recent polls in
395
00:17:42,460 --> 00:17:48,320
contrast 38 percent of all voters 61
396
00:17:46,250 --> 00:17:51,500
percent of Democrats and just 10 percent
397
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:53,870
of Republicans believe that the u.s. is
398
00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:55,310
poor response to the pandemic is mainly
399
00:17:53,870 --> 00:17:56,230
to blame for the current state of
400
00:17:55,310 --> 00:17:58,160
affairs
401
00:17:56,230 --> 00:18:00,830
last year the Trump administration
402
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:03,860
threatened that intelligence sharing
403
00:18:00,830 --> 00:18:06,290
with Israel could be reduced if they are
404
00:18:03,860 --> 00:18:08,710
not given reassurances that their
405
00:18:06,290 --> 00:18:11,720
concerns about Chinese investment in
406
00:18:08,710 --> 00:18:14,480
sensitive Israeli sectors have been
407
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,580
taken care of this year a trump official
408
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:19,100
said quote our concern about China
409
00:18:16,580 --> 00:18:22,130
doubled and tripled because of the
410
00:18:19,100 --> 00:18:23,810
corona virus if Trump is reelected the
411
00:18:22,130 --> 00:18:25,670
Netanyahu government will likely
412
00:18:23,810 --> 00:18:28,480
continue to reevaluate Chinese
413
00:18:25,670 --> 00:18:31,100
participation in sensitive projects
414
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:33,490
gradually scaling down Israeli reliance
415
00:18:31,100 --> 00:18:35,660
on Chinese investment and technology
416
00:18:33,490 --> 00:18:38,660
u.s. pressure on Israel to
417
00:18:35,660 --> 00:18:41,090
jekt Chinese bids to build its 5g
418
00:18:38,660 --> 00:18:43,190
network infrastructure as well as
419
00:18:41,090 --> 00:18:45,890
Israel's recent selection of a domestic
420
00:18:43,190 --> 00:18:48,440
Israeli company for a major water
421
00:18:45,890 --> 00:18:51,590
desalinization project are the shape of
422
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:54,260
things to come if Joe Biden becomes
423
00:18:51,590 --> 00:18:57,020
president he likely looked for ways to
424
00:18:54,260 --> 00:18:59,360
balance existing concerns about China
425
00:18:57,020 --> 00:19:01,730
with the Democratic Party's globalist
426
00:18:59,360 --> 00:19:04,100
worldview how far he may be willing to
427
00:19:01,730 --> 00:19:06,020
go to pressure Israel on the issue of
428
00:19:04,100 --> 00:19:10,580
China certainly remains an open question
429
00:19:06,020 --> 00:19:12,470
that I won't address Iran long before
430
00:19:10,580 --> 00:19:15,770
kovat 19 became a factor in his decision
431
00:19:12,470 --> 00:19:19,370
making President Trump used the u.s.
432
00:19:15,770 --> 00:19:22,520
strike that killed general Soleimani to
433
00:19:19,370 --> 00:19:25,100
Telegraph his toughness on Iran and his
434
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,960
readiness to stand up for Israel which
435
00:19:25,100 --> 00:19:28,910
he did to the Republican Party voters
436
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:32,210
who traditionally vote on national
437
00:19:28,910 --> 00:19:34,850
security concerns devastated by the
438
00:19:32,210 --> 00:19:37,700
coronavirus Iran has made a series of
439
00:19:34,850 --> 00:19:39,680
conciliatory gestures such as backing a
440
00:19:37,700 --> 00:19:42,170
pro-american prime minister in Iraq and
441
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:44,300
ordering its proxy militias to cease
442
00:19:42,170 --> 00:19:48,220
their rocket attacks on American forces
443
00:19:44,300 --> 00:19:51,230
in order to avoid a direct confrontation
444
00:19:48,220 --> 00:19:53,300
Tehran believes could benefit Trump
445
00:19:51,230 --> 00:19:56,060
politically improving his reelection
446
00:19:53,300 --> 00:19:59,450
chances in November the u.s.
447
00:19:56,060 --> 00:20:01,400
reciprocated by granting Iraq a four
448
00:19:59,450 --> 00:20:04,850
month waiver from American sanctions on
449
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:07,550
Iran so that it could buy Iranian gas it
450
00:20:04,850 --> 00:20:10,400
also reportedly allowed some frozen
451
00:20:07,550 --> 00:20:13,370
Iranian funds in third countries to be
452
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:15,530
released to Iran those in similar
453
00:20:13,370 --> 00:20:17,900
measures albeit viewed as strictly
454
00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:19,310
tactical and temporary have somewhat
455
00:20:17,900 --> 00:20:22,120
lowered the pressure between the two
456
00:20:19,310 --> 00:20:25,100
governments distracted by kovat 19
457
00:20:22,120 --> 00:20:28,830
reducing the risk of a direct conflict
458
00:20:25,100 --> 00:20:31,289
in the near term
459
00:20:28,830 --> 00:20:33,210
ahead to November I would expect the
460
00:20:31,289 --> 00:20:35,370
Trump administration to continue its
461
00:20:33,210 --> 00:20:37,159
maximum pressure maximum pressure
462
00:20:35,370 --> 00:20:39,480
campaign against Iran including
463
00:20:37,159 --> 00:20:42,059
sanctions and military threats like the
464
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:44,100
president's tweet from April that
465
00:20:42,059 --> 00:20:46,950
ordered the US Navy to sink any Iranian
466
00:20:44,100 --> 00:20:49,649
boats that harass American ships but it
467
00:20:46,950 --> 00:20:53,340
was never translated into official US
468
00:20:49,649 --> 00:20:55,409
policy if elected President Joe Biden
469
00:20:53,340 --> 00:20:58,159
has indicated that he would re-enter and
470
00:20:55,409 --> 00:21:01,260
expand the nuclear agreement with Iran
471
00:20:58,159 --> 00:21:03,179
but only if Iran first returned to
472
00:21:01,260 --> 00:21:06,980
compliance with the deals restrictions
473
00:21:03,179 --> 00:21:10,260
on the nuclear program Saudi Arabia
474
00:21:06,980 --> 00:21:13,110
covet 19 handed president Trump arguably
475
00:21:10,260 --> 00:21:15,840
his biggest diplomatic achievement in
476
00:21:13,110 --> 00:21:18,630
recent memory when he managed to
477
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:21,090
persuade Saudi Arabia and the rest of
478
00:21:18,630 --> 00:21:24,360
OPEC nations to cut oil production as a
479
00:21:21,090 --> 00:21:27,269
way to protect the US oil industry from
480
00:21:24,360 --> 00:21:28,490
a historical coronavirus driven fall in
481
00:21:27,269 --> 00:21:31,950
oil prices
482
00:21:28,490 --> 00:21:34,950
Trump secured Saudi cooperation by
483
00:21:31,950 --> 00:21:36,840
putting into question the future of the
484
00:21:34,950 --> 00:21:39,149
Americans Saudi strategic partnership
485
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:41,730
and hinting at a real possibility of
486
00:21:39,149 --> 00:21:43,409
withdrawing the roughly 3,000 American
487
00:21:41,730 --> 00:21:45,720
troops currently stationed in the
488
00:21:43,409 --> 00:21:47,549
kingdom when the cuts proved
489
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:50,460
insufficient the Trump administration
490
00:21:47,549 --> 00:21:52,830
went two step further by announcing that
491
00:21:50,460 --> 00:21:54,389
it would remove Patriot missiles sent
492
00:21:52,830 --> 00:21:57,679
last fall to protect Saudi oil
493
00:21:54,389 --> 00:22:01,019
facilities after a drone attack by Iran
494
00:21:57,679 --> 00:22:03,779
when first I'm sorry when forced to
495
00:22:01,019 --> 00:22:06,360
choose between his affinity to Saudi
496
00:22:03,779 --> 00:22:09,600
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the
497
00:22:06,360 --> 00:22:13,260
demands of his Republican constituencies
498
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:16,289
in oil-producing States Trump has made a
499
00:22:13,260 --> 00:22:18,090
choice to protect us as energy dominance
500
00:22:16,289 --> 00:22:21,029
something he views as a crowning
501
00:22:18,090 --> 00:22:24,059
achievement of his presidency one real
502
00:22:21,029 --> 00:22:26,070
way Trump could help the oil industry is
503
00:22:24,059 --> 00:22:28,559
to bring the corona virus outbreak under
504
00:22:26,070 --> 00:22:31,679
control so that people would feel safe
505
00:22:28,559 --> 00:22:34,830
traveling again but for now just remains
506
00:22:31,679 --> 00:22:36,929
in the future as a majority of Americans
507
00:22:34,830 --> 00:22:40,770
are still very wary of getting on a
508
00:22:36,929 --> 00:22:42,809
plane or taking long distance car trips
509
00:22:40,770 --> 00:22:45,030
now let's take a brief look where things
510
00:22:42,809 --> 00:22:48,000
stand - five months ahead of the
511
00:22:45,030 --> 00:22:49,559
November presidential election President
512
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,380
Trump currently trails former Vice
513
00:22:49,559 --> 00:22:54,270
President Biden by seven but close to 8
514
00:22:52,380 --> 00:22:56,130
percent point eight eight percentage
515
00:22:54,270 --> 00:22:58,800
points in the National the National
516
00:22:56,130 --> 00:23:00,540
popular vote at forty nine point nine
517
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:03,030
percent versus forty to one percent
518
00:23:00,540 --> 00:23:05,700
according to Real Clear Politics polling
519
00:23:03,030 --> 00:23:07,590
average this is an average this compares
520
00:23:05,700 --> 00:23:09,960
with forty four percent that Clinton had
521
00:23:07,590 --> 00:23:11,880
at this time four years ago and 42
522
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:15,360
percent that Trump had at a similar
523
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:18,030
point in the 2016 race public opinion
524
00:23:15,360 --> 00:23:21,179
research also shows the president is at
525
00:23:18,030 --> 00:23:23,580
a slight disadvantage in five of the six
526
00:23:21,179 --> 00:23:26,880
key swing states Michigan Pennsylvania
527
00:23:23,580 --> 00:23:29,670
Wisconsin Arizona and Florida and
528
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:33,059
running head-to-head with Biden in North
529
00:23:29,670 --> 00:23:35,490
Carolina a few days ago the Fox News
530
00:23:33,059 --> 00:23:37,650
polls that came out show that shrimp is
531
00:23:35,490 --> 00:23:39,929
trailing Biden by nine points in
532
00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:42,840
Wisconsin forty percent to forty nine
533
00:23:39,929 --> 00:23:47,210
he's trailing by four points in Arizona
534
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:49,710
42 to 46 percent of ID for Biden and
535
00:23:47,210 --> 00:23:51,840
yesterday's new war two days ago as new
536
00:23:49,710 --> 00:23:54,710
national monolith University poll that
537
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:59,090
came out has Biden at fifty four percent
538
00:23:54,710 --> 00:24:02,190
compared to Trump's 41 percent in swing
539
00:23:59,090 --> 00:24:06,809
counties that were decided by less than
540
00:24:02,190 --> 00:24:09,660
10 points in the 2016 election Trump
541
00:24:06,809 --> 00:24:12,240
trails Biden in a tentative electoral
542
00:24:09,660 --> 00:24:15,000
college vote tally where his campaign
543
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:17,220
can currently count on 204 electoral
544
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:20,220
votes in his favor that's a combination
545
00:24:17,220 --> 00:24:23,429
of solid votes likely votes and leaning
546
00:24:20,220 --> 00:24:25,320
Republican votes out of the 200 needed
547
00:24:23,429 --> 00:24:27,710
to win the presidency versus Biden who
548
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:30,450
can count on 232 votes
549
00:24:27,710 --> 00:24:33,510
Trump needs to win at least two-thirds
550
00:24:30,450 --> 00:24:36,390
of the popular vote in the six swing
551
00:24:33,510 --> 00:24:38,580
states which together account for 102
552
00:24:36,390 --> 00:24:40,740
electoral college votes in order for him
553
00:24:38,580 --> 00:24:45,720
to secure a second term in the White
554
00:24:40,740 --> 00:24:48,679
House in contrast Joe Biden needs just
555
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:51,510
40% of those votes to win the presidency
556
00:24:48,679 --> 00:24:55,380
keep in mind however
557
00:24:51,510 --> 00:24:57,270
that these swing states have suffered
558
00:24:55,380 --> 00:25:00,830
significant health and economic damage
559
00:24:57,270 --> 00:25:03,390
from covered 19 in particular
560
00:25:00,830 --> 00:25:06,570
Pennsylvania with 20 electoral college
561
00:25:03,390 --> 00:25:10,170
votes Michigan with 16 electoral college
562
00:25:06,570 --> 00:25:12,920
votes Florida with 29 electoral votes
563
00:25:10,170 --> 00:25:15,290
are in the top 10 by the number of
564
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:18,240
coronavirus cases nationwide and
565
00:25:15,290 --> 00:25:21,210
Michigan and Pennsylvania are in the top
566
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:23,550
5 by the number of covered 19 deaths
567
00:25:21,210 --> 00:25:26,610
according to an analysis recently
568
00:25:23,550 --> 00:25:28,140
discussed in the New York Times Michigan
569
00:25:26,610 --> 00:25:30,840
also has the second highest unemployment
570
00:25:28,140 --> 00:25:33,180
rate in the nation at 22 point seven
571
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:35,670
percent according to the US Bureau of
572
00:25:33,180 --> 00:25:39,840
Labor Statistics with Pennsylvania very
573
00:25:35,670 --> 00:25:42,810
close behind so looking at public
574
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:45,150
perceptions of Trump voters perceptions
575
00:25:42,810 --> 00:25:48,450
of the way Trump is managing covered 19
576
00:25:45,150 --> 00:25:50,730
the resulting economic damage and the
577
00:25:48,450 --> 00:25:53,520
protest demonstrations over the murder
578
00:25:50,730 --> 00:25:56,010
of George Floyd are beginning to
579
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:59,120
generate serious headwinds for his
580
00:25:56,010 --> 00:26:01,950
re-election public approval of Trump on
581
00:25:59,120 --> 00:26:04,470
coronavirus has been on the decline for
582
00:26:01,950 --> 00:26:06,750
the last two months it currently stands
583
00:26:04,470 --> 00:26:09,170
at forty three point three percent while
584
00:26:06,750 --> 00:26:13,410
fifty-four point four percent disapprove
585
00:26:09,170 --> 00:26:16,440
more than six and ten voters 62% don't
586
00:26:13,410 --> 00:26:18,240
trust the information about the pandemic
587
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:21,590
that they're getting from the president
588
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:25,920
according to a recent poll conducted by
589
00:26:21,590 --> 00:26:27,900
CNN 55 percent wouldn't trust him if he
590
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:31,260
were to recommend that they end social
591
00:26:27,900 --> 00:26:33,930
distancing according to Politico perhaps
592
00:26:31,260 --> 00:26:36,300
more importantly public approval of the
593
00:26:33,930 --> 00:26:38,850
way Trump is managing the economy is now
594
00:26:36,300 --> 00:26:42,300
the lowest of his presidency it stands
595
00:26:38,850 --> 00:26:44,520
at 50.7% with forty four point five
596
00:26:42,300 --> 00:26:48,660
percent disapproving according to
597
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:51,360
polling national averages Trump's edge
598
00:26:48,660 --> 00:26:54,030
over Biden as the most trusted to manage
599
00:26:51,360 --> 00:26:57,840
the economy is also down to three points
600
00:26:54,030 --> 00:26:59,790
44 to 41 after being at 79 points
601
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:03,240
through most of April in May according
602
00:26:59,790 --> 00:27:05,400
to Politico in other words unless there
603
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:08,520
is a sustainable decline on
604
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:11,030
there is a sustainable decline in new
605
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:13,470
coronavirus cases over the summer an
606
00:27:11,030 --> 00:27:15,900
effective treatment to avoid a second
607
00:27:13,470 --> 00:27:18,240
wave of infection and the positive
608
00:27:15,900 --> 00:27:20,970
economic momentum going into the fall it
609
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:24,180
would be exceedingly difficult for Trump
610
00:27:20,970 --> 00:27:27,360
to run on the economy or to run on his
611
00:27:24,180 --> 00:27:30,830
quote victory over the virus and those
612
00:27:27,360 --> 00:27:33,630
are all very very big IFS to be sure
613
00:27:30,830 --> 00:27:36,180
Trump still has strong support amongst
614
00:27:33,630 --> 00:27:38,640
his Republican base which is more than
615
00:27:36,180 --> 00:27:40,620
twice as likely to approve of the job
616
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:44,610
he's doing as president as the general
617
00:27:40,620 --> 00:27:47,280
population however a survey from
618
00:27:44,610 --> 00:27:49,530
Monmouth University conducted since the
619
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:52,440
murder of George Floyd shows that
620
00:27:49,530 --> 00:27:55,740
Americans as a whole regardless of their
621
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:58,110
political affiliation are 14 points more
622
00:27:55,740 --> 00:28:01,490
likely to believe that things in the
623
00:27:58,110 --> 00:28:06,540
United States are on the wrong track at
624
00:28:01,490 --> 00:28:09,390
74% compared to 60% a month ago just 21%
625
00:28:06,540 --> 00:28:11,910
say that the country the United States
626
00:28:09,390 --> 00:28:14,940
is headed in the right direction down
627
00:28:11,910 --> 00:28:17,760
from 33 percent in May the biggest
628
00:28:14,940 --> 00:28:20,040
change has been amongst Republicans with
629
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:21,600
a 19 point drop amongst those who
630
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:25,320
believe the country is moving in the
631
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:28,710
right direction from 64% down now to 45%
632
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:30,270
and an 18 point increase amongst those
633
00:28:28,710 --> 00:28:30,930
who say the country is off on the wrong
634
00:28:30,270 --> 00:28:34,740
track
635
00:28:30,930 --> 00:28:36,930
28% to 46 percent for independence there
636
00:28:34,740 --> 00:28:38,370
has been a 12 point decline in those who
637
00:28:36,930 --> 00:28:41,310
believe the country is moving in the
638
00:28:38,370 --> 00:28:46,050
right direction from 29 percent in May
639
00:28:41,310 --> 00:28:47,400
to 17 percent now and a 15-point
640
00:28:46,050 --> 00:28:50,310
increase in those who believe the
641
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:52,560
opposite 63 percent to 78 percent in the
642
00:28:50,310 --> 00:28:54,780
wrong direction and finally amongst
643
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,980
Democrats the share of those who believe
644
00:28:54,780 --> 00:28:58,290
the country is moving in the right
645
00:28:55,980 --> 00:29:00,000
direction is down nine points to four
646
00:28:58,290 --> 00:29:02,220
percent compared with thirteen percent a
647
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,690
month ago the share of those who say the
648
00:29:02,220 --> 00:29:08,160
country is off on the wrong track
649
00:29:03,690 --> 00:29:10,770
amongst Democrats now is 92 percent all
650
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,310
of that being said the polling average
651
00:29:10,770 --> 00:29:17,260
of
652
00:29:12,310 --> 00:29:21,700
overall job approval rating at 43.5%
653
00:29:17,260 --> 00:29:25,000
who approve and 53.8% who disapprove of
654
00:29:21,700 --> 00:29:27,910
his overall job approval is roughly the
655
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:30,640
same roughly the same as it was in late
656
00:29:27,910 --> 00:29:32,500
february around the time the united
657
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:35,500
states saw its first death from
658
00:29:32,500 --> 00:29:37,030
coronavirus or for that matter roughly
659
00:29:35,500 --> 00:29:40,210
the same as it was two weeks after his
660
00:29:37,030 --> 00:29:41,980
inauguration four years ago it almost
661
00:29:40,210 --> 00:29:44,860
seems as if no matter what the President
662
00:29:41,980 --> 00:29:47,830
does his approval rating remains in the
663
00:29:44,860 --> 00:29:49,750
mid 40s low 40s to mid 40s as a
664
00:29:47,830 --> 00:29:52,930
testament both to his solid support
665
00:29:49,750 --> 00:29:55,240
amongst his conservative base and just
666
00:29:52,930 --> 00:29:58,090
as solid opposition from the center and
667
00:29:55,240 --> 00:30:01,120
left now let's turn for a moment to Joe
668
00:29:58,090 --> 00:30:02,440
Biden as a presidential contender he
669
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:05,050
finds himself in an unprecedented
670
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:07,660
position having to campaign virtue
671
00:30:05,050 --> 00:30:10,510
having to campaign virtually from his
672
00:30:07,660 --> 00:30:12,810
basement in Wilmington Delaware without
673
00:30:10,510 --> 00:30:15,850
rallies and other in-person
674
00:30:12,810 --> 00:30:18,610
campaign opportunities that typically
675
00:30:15,850 --> 00:30:21,490
generates non-stop 24-hour campaign a
676
00:30:18,610 --> 00:30:25,300
24-hour campaign news cycle he is far
677
00:30:21,490 --> 00:30:27,580
out matched by Trump on social media but
678
00:30:25,300 --> 00:30:29,860
he still has limited means limited means
679
00:30:27,580 --> 00:30:31,960
of reaching voters who are not already
680
00:30:29,860 --> 00:30:32,550
attuned to his message of experience and
681
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:36,820
empathy
682
00:30:32,550 --> 00:30:39,220
nevertheless Americans today trust Biden
683
00:30:36,820 --> 00:30:42,040
rather than Trump to better manage
684
00:30:39,220 --> 00:30:44,590
coronavirus to better manage health care
685
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:47,860
and to better manage US relations with
686
00:30:44,590 --> 00:30:49,870
China according to Fox News they are
687
00:30:47,860 --> 00:30:52,210
also more likely to view Biden rather
688
00:30:49,870 --> 00:30:54,970
than Trump as having good leadership
689
00:30:52,210 --> 00:30:57,700
skills and caring about average
690
00:30:54,970 --> 00:31:03,250
Americans according to a recent survey
691
00:30:57,700 --> 00:31:05,830
by a Quinnipiac University now if I may
692
00:31:03,250 --> 00:31:08,650
talk about the murder of George Floyd
693
00:31:05,830 --> 00:31:12,550
and the protests inspired and what all
694
00:31:08,650 --> 00:31:15,910
of this could mean for Trump Biden and
695
00:31:12,550 --> 00:31:17,770
the nation in my opinion these
696
00:31:15,910 --> 00:31:20,740
developments represent an inflection
697
00:31:17,770 --> 00:31:23,590
point in the presidential race arguably
698
00:31:20,740 --> 00:31:26,750
comparable to it in its magnitude to the
699
00:31:23,590 --> 00:31:30,950
kovat 19 pandemic and the economic
700
00:31:26,750 --> 00:31:33,800
we all know that code 19 is severely
701
00:31:30,950 --> 00:31:35,810
impacting african-americans who are
702
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,690
disproportionately more likely to get
703
00:31:35,810 --> 00:31:41,300
sick and to die from the virus as well
704
00:31:38,690 --> 00:31:44,660
as to lose a job or suffer bankruptcy in
705
00:31:41,300 --> 00:31:47,210
the economic fallout President Trump has
706
00:31:44,660 --> 00:31:49,760
largely ignored these considerations
707
00:31:47,210 --> 00:31:52,270
along with the broader history of police
708
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:54,620
violence and racial and socio-economic
709
00:31:52,270 --> 00:31:56,660
disparities that have harmed black
710
00:31:54,620 --> 00:32:00,260
Americans for generations in this
711
00:31:56,660 --> 00:32:01,970
country instead the president is
712
00:32:00,260 --> 00:32:04,130
doubling down and on the message of law
713
00:32:01,970 --> 00:32:07,250
and order denouncing the protests as
714
00:32:04,130 --> 00:32:09,560
domestic acts of terror and portraying
715
00:32:07,250 --> 00:32:12,350
participants as members of the radical
716
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:14,450
left Trump's stark rhetoric is
717
00:32:12,350 --> 00:32:18,290
consistent with the law and order
718
00:32:14,450 --> 00:32:21,680
message he has projected since his 2016
719
00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:25,060
campaign it is designed to appeal to his
720
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:27,440
core supporters so far Trump's message
721
00:32:25,060 --> 00:32:30,050
doesn't appear to resonate very strongly
722
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:32,950
with some of the key voter groups whose
723
00:32:30,050 --> 00:32:36,140
support is crucial to his reelection
724
00:32:32,950 --> 00:32:38,720
according to a new political morning
725
00:32:36,140 --> 00:32:41,690
consult poll registered voters
726
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:45,620
registered voters are 31% more likely to
727
00:32:41,690 --> 00:32:48,680
vote for Trump and 45% more likely to
728
00:32:45,620 --> 00:32:51,950
vote for Biden as a result of the murder
729
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:54,050
of George Floyd ten days ago the
730
00:32:51,950 --> 00:32:57,080
difference is especially notable amongst
731
00:32:54,050 --> 00:33:00,920
women who are 29% more likely to vote
732
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:05,390
for Trump and 47% more likely to vote
733
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:07,850
for Biden voters under 44 are 23% more
734
00:33:05,390 --> 00:33:09,640
likely to vote for Trump and 50 percent
735
00:33:07,850 --> 00:33:13,130
more likely to vote for Biden and
736
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:16,250
suburban voters are 29% more likely to
737
00:33:13,130 --> 00:33:19,280
vote for Trump and 47% more likely to
738
00:33:16,250 --> 00:33:21,650
vote for Biden some Republican senators
739
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,900
such as Ben Sasse of Nebraska Tim Scott
740
00:33:21,650 --> 00:33:26,450
of South Carolina the Chamber's only
741
00:33:23,900 --> 00:33:28,580
black senator criticized Trump for
742
00:33:26,450 --> 00:33:31,130
violently clearing away protesters near
743
00:33:28,580 --> 00:33:33,550
the White House on Monday only to have
744
00:33:31,130 --> 00:33:36,950
his picture taken in front of the church
745
00:33:33,550 --> 00:33:40,400
recently the statements and articles and
746
00:33:36,950 --> 00:33:42,470
op-eds by general mattis or former
747
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,410
former chief of the Joint Chiefs mike
748
00:33:42,470 --> 00:33:48,620
admiral mike mullen publishing strong
749
00:33:45,410 --> 00:33:51,710
strong worded opinion pieces criticizing
750
00:33:48,620 --> 00:33:54,290
Trump and removing for his removal of
751
00:33:51,710 --> 00:33:56,990
peaceful demonstrators following that
752
00:33:54,290 --> 00:33:59,690
and after facing strong internal
753
00:33:56,990 --> 00:34:01,790
disapproval in the Pentagon both
754
00:33:59,690 --> 00:34:04,100
secretary defense Mike Vesper and
755
00:34:01,790 --> 00:34:07,760
current chairman of the Joint Chiefs
756
00:34:04,100 --> 00:34:09,740
general mark Milley tried to walk back
757
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:12,230
their initial embrace and support for
758
00:34:09,740 --> 00:34:14,990
Trump's treatment of the protesters this
759
00:34:12,230 --> 00:34:18,200
past Monday and where is Joe Biden in
760
00:34:14,990 --> 00:34:20,300
all of this for bagging this crisis as
761
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:22,790
an opportunity to project strength
762
00:34:20,300 --> 00:34:24,740
through empathy and take on the mantle
763
00:34:22,790 --> 00:34:28,010
of leader of the Democratic opposition
764
00:34:24,740 --> 00:34:30,530
and unifier of the nation while offering
765
00:34:28,010 --> 00:34:32,679
realistic workable solutions to the
766
00:34:30,530 --> 00:34:36,080
inequities driving the protests on
767
00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:38,120
Tuesday this week in his first formal
768
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:41,570
speech since the coronavirus shuttered
769
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:44,360
his campaign Biden emphasized themes of
770
00:34:41,570 --> 00:34:46,960
empathy and unity pledging to address
771
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:49,940
economic inequality and racial injustice
772
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:53,000
but also urging the nation to come
773
00:34:49,940 --> 00:34:56,179
together at a moment of deep deep civil
774
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:57,710
unrest earlier Pheidon met with black
775
00:34:56,179 --> 00:34:59,870
leaders and protesters and announced
776
00:34:57,710 --> 00:35:02,300
initial proposals aimed at tackling
777
00:34:59,870 --> 00:35:05,200
institutional racism in criminal justice
778
00:35:02,300 --> 00:35:07,510
and law enforcement
779
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:09,279
today these voters support Biden over
780
00:35:07,510 --> 00:35:12,210
Donald Trump by a broad margin but a
781
00:35:09,279 --> 00:35:15,670
nota notably less less enthusiastic
782
00:35:12,210 --> 00:35:18,059
about voting for him 59% of Biden
783
00:35:15,670 --> 00:35:20,109
supporters aged 18 to 39 are
784
00:35:18,059 --> 00:35:23,769
enthusiastic about supporting him
785
00:35:20,109 --> 00:35:24,849
compared with 74 percent of other Biden
786
00:35:23,769 --> 00:35:29,230
supporters who support him
787
00:35:24,849 --> 00:35:31,059
enthusiastically as you know Biden has
788
00:35:29,230 --> 00:35:33,279
pledged to select a female running mate
789
00:35:31,059 --> 00:35:36,849
and strongly hinted that he might serve
790
00:35:33,279 --> 00:35:38,260
only one term if he wins in November in
791
00:35:36,849 --> 00:35:40,630
addition to being a heartbeat away from
792
00:35:38,260 --> 00:35:41,980
the presidency Biden's future running
793
00:35:40,630 --> 00:35:43,960
mate will automatically become the
794
00:35:41,980 --> 00:35:46,930
Democratic Party's frontrunner for the
795
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:49,510
2024 presidential election and will find
796
00:35:46,930 --> 00:35:51,609
herself in an unparalleled position to
797
00:35:49,510 --> 00:35:55,150
define the Democratic agenda for the
798
00:35:51,609 --> 00:35:58,059
next decade Biden's recent you ain't
799
00:35:55,150 --> 00:35:59,680
black comment in an interview has
800
00:35:58,059 --> 00:36:01,650
intensified pressure from black
801
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:06,460
Democratic Party establishment and
802
00:36:01,650 --> 00:36:08,619
activists in favor of Biden choosing an
803
00:36:06,460 --> 00:36:12,900
african-american woman as his running
804
00:36:08,619 --> 00:36:15,759
mate I'd argue that the recent protests
805
00:36:12,900 --> 00:36:18,369
over George Floyd are making that an
806
00:36:15,759 --> 00:36:20,559
imperative for him possibilities include
807
00:36:18,369 --> 00:36:22,690
some senator Kamala Harris of California
808
00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:24,670
representative Val Demmings of Florida
809
00:36:22,690 --> 00:36:26,230
Stacey Abrams the former Georgia House
810
00:36:24,670 --> 00:36:29,799
Minority Leader and gubernatorial
811
00:36:26,230 --> 00:36:32,740
candidate and recently Atlanta may
812
00:36:29,799 --> 00:36:36,700
occasionally is bottom's in a CNN poll
813
00:36:32,740 --> 00:36:39,160
38% of Democratic voters named racial
814
00:36:36,700 --> 00:36:41,650
and ethnic diversity as their first or
815
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:44,140
second most important consideration with
816
00:36:41,650 --> 00:36:46,630
regard to Biden's choice of a running
817
00:36:44,140 --> 00:36:49,420
mate the importance of the
818
00:36:46,630 --> 00:36:52,230
african-american vote to Biden's victory
819
00:36:49,420 --> 00:36:55,240
in November is impossible to overstate
820
00:36:52,230 --> 00:36:57,670
lower turnout amongst this group was a
821
00:36:55,240 --> 00:37:01,930
key factor behind Hillary Clinton's
822
00:36:57,670 --> 00:37:04,029
failure in 2016 the Biden campaign will
823
00:37:01,930 --> 00:37:06,670
have some how are choices to make when
824
00:37:04,029 --> 00:37:09,430
trying to balance a pressing need to
825
00:37:06,670 --> 00:37:12,309
energize the voters with a similarly
826
00:37:09,430 --> 00:37:14,680
pressing me need to expand support among
827
00:37:12,309 --> 00:37:16,839
younger voters and progressives who
828
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,779
voted for Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in
829
00:37:16,839 --> 00:37:21,979
the primaries
830
00:37:18,779 --> 00:37:25,949
so let me conclude with something
831
00:37:21,979 --> 00:37:28,859
imagine now it's September and the
832
00:37:25,949 --> 00:37:31,409
economy across the nation has been fully
833
00:37:28,859 --> 00:37:34,709
open for two or three months for several
834
00:37:31,409 --> 00:37:37,949
several well for several months the
835
00:37:34,709 --> 00:37:41,369
furloughs are long over businesses are
836
00:37:37,949 --> 00:37:43,499
hiring again unemployment while still
837
00:37:41,369 --> 00:37:46,140
higher than it was back in February is
838
00:37:43,499 --> 00:37:49,709
nowhere near the 40 million we have
839
00:37:46,140 --> 00:37:52,829
today likewise the economy is growing by
840
00:37:49,709 --> 00:37:55,069
double digits and president Trump will
841
00:37:52,829 --> 00:37:57,900
be taking credit for all of that
842
00:37:55,069 --> 00:38:00,390
declaring himself on Twitter as the
843
00:37:57,900 --> 00:38:03,119
architect of the speediest economic
844
00:38:00,390 --> 00:38:06,049
recovery and largest job growth in human
845
00:38:03,119 --> 00:38:08,549
memory what will Joe Biden say to that
846
00:38:06,049 --> 00:38:11,669
well the Biden campaign try to remind
847
00:38:08,549 --> 00:38:14,099
voters about Trump's actions on kovat 19
848
00:38:11,669 --> 00:38:17,219
that led to more than 100,000 dead and
849
00:38:14,099 --> 00:38:20,069
millions of lives disrupted or Trump's
850
00:38:17,219 --> 00:38:23,039
response to the murder of George Floyd
851
00:38:20,069 --> 00:38:25,380
or will Democrats instead appeal to
852
00:38:23,039 --> 00:38:28,169
voters with a forward-looking message of
853
00:38:25,380 --> 00:38:32,640
using kovat 19 and the racial divide as
854
00:38:28,169 --> 00:38:36,119
an impetus for reimagining rebuilding
855
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:39,140
and unifying the nation the outcome of
856
00:38:36,119 --> 00:38:42,779
the election will ultimately hinge on
857
00:38:39,140 --> 00:38:49,709
Biden's answer to this question thank
858
00:38:42,779 --> 00:38:53,130
you thank you thank you so much for that
859
00:38:49,709 --> 00:38:54,630
very exciting talk and I've had a chance
860
00:38:53,130 --> 00:38:57,299
to look at some of the questions coming
861
00:38:54,630 --> 00:38:58,289
in and there on a variety of topics so
862
00:38:57,299 --> 00:39:01,619
prepare yourself
863
00:38:58,289 --> 00:39:07,679
zebb first we now enter those questions
864
00:39:01,619 --> 00:39:10,559
but at the same time I would like to
865
00:39:07,679 --> 00:39:13,199
provide you in our audience with some
866
00:39:10,559 --> 00:39:15,029
information if you joined us late or if
867
00:39:13,199 --> 00:39:17,969
you forgotten here's how to send a
868
00:39:15,029 --> 00:39:21,599
question for our speaker click on the
869
00:39:17,969 --> 00:39:23,219
Q&A button if you're with us via Zoom
870
00:39:21,599 --> 00:39:24,869
unfortunately if you're watching us
871
00:39:23,219 --> 00:39:27,769
through YouTube the comments are
872
00:39:24,869 --> 00:39:30,029
disabled and here is our first question
873
00:39:27,769 --> 00:39:32,910
difficult to choose and of course I
874
00:39:30,029 --> 00:39:34,979
expect many more to be coming in
875
00:39:32,910 --> 00:39:35,969
we have Jota a1 who's a professor of
876
00:39:34,979 --> 00:39:41,670
political science and international
877
00:39:35,969 --> 00:39:43,410
relations from Egypt and she says in the
878
00:39:41,670 --> 00:39:45,420
short term President Trump is losing his
879
00:39:43,410 --> 00:39:49,069
popularity due to the challenges
880
00:39:45,420 --> 00:39:52,589
mentioned by Sayyaf first what this to
881
00:39:49,069 --> 00:39:55,019
decline continued on the if is if this
882
00:39:52,589 --> 00:39:57,479
decline in games in a long term giving
883
00:39:55,019 --> 00:40:02,329
the uncertain developments of cub at 19
884
00:39:57,479 --> 00:40:06,390
pandemic over the world economic system
885
00:40:02,329 --> 00:40:11,390
in other words if it continues what we
886
00:40:06,390 --> 00:40:17,039
have this situation what do you think I
887
00:40:11,390 --> 00:40:21,059
think I addressed that at the towards
888
00:40:17,039 --> 00:40:22,890
the end of the presentation if things
889
00:40:21,059 --> 00:40:27,479
continue now the way they're going and
890
00:40:22,890 --> 00:40:30,839
there's no demonstrable improvement I
891
00:40:27,479 --> 00:40:35,489
think that the Trump campaign is and
892
00:40:30,839 --> 00:40:36,890
even is in an even deeper deeper problem
893
00:40:35,489 --> 00:40:41,549
than they're currently in right now
894
00:40:36,890 --> 00:40:44,130
again if things begin to change that's
895
00:40:41,549 --> 00:40:46,140
the question that I have and many many
896
00:40:44,130 --> 00:40:50,369
people have how is the public going to
897
00:40:46,140 --> 00:40:53,160
respond in September or October to what
898
00:40:50,369 --> 00:40:54,929
probably will be a better economic
899
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,429
situation than we have today although
900
00:40:54,929 --> 00:40:59,249
not necessarily better than it was in
901
00:40:56,429 --> 00:41:02,549
March or February and you know that's
902
00:40:59,249 --> 00:41:05,519
the $64,000 question that none of us
903
00:41:02,549 --> 00:41:08,069
have any answers to right now I do
904
00:41:05,519 --> 00:41:09,869
caution a bit that some of most of these
905
00:41:08,069 --> 00:41:13,619
questions so far came in before you had
906
00:41:09,869 --> 00:41:15,449
completed your talk but here's Antonio
907
00:41:13,619 --> 00:41:18,059
de Moo who both of us know director of
908
00:41:15,449 --> 00:41:21,559
Middle East unit Institute for security
909
00:41:18,059 --> 00:41:26,130
and defense analyses in Athens Greece
910
00:41:21,559 --> 00:41:28,099
what would a bun presidency mean for
911
00:41:26,130 --> 00:41:31,049
American foreign policy towards the
912
00:41:28,099 --> 00:41:39,059
israeli-palestinian issue and relations
913
00:41:31,049 --> 00:41:43,459
with China I think that there are many
914
00:41:39,059 --> 00:41:45,880
more eminent analysts of the bilateral
915
00:41:43,459 --> 00:41:47,800
us-israeli relationship
916
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,990
that would be able to so that better
917
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:53,890
than I obviously begin from one point
918
00:41:49,990 --> 00:41:56,740
Biden is very much a globalist and so is
919
00:41:53,890 --> 00:41:58,240
the Democratic Party and I think it
920
00:41:56,740 --> 00:42:02,230
would be I don't want to use the word
921
00:41:58,240 --> 00:42:04,240
necessarily return to who what was under
922
00:42:02,230 --> 00:42:06,130
Obama because there was some mistakes
923
00:42:04,240 --> 00:42:08,500
even from Biden's perspective that that
924
00:42:06,130 --> 00:42:10,060
that were made but I certainly would
925
00:42:08,500 --> 00:42:18,430
think that he would engage more directly
926
00:42:10,060 --> 00:42:21,730
and he would be willing to discuss with
927
00:42:18,430 --> 00:42:25,360
the Israelis what Israel needs to do or
928
00:42:21,730 --> 00:42:30,970
should be doing in order to engage with
929
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:33,760
the Palestinians and not only to focus
930
00:42:30,970 --> 00:42:36,100
on a domestic political base which the
931
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,210
current president is doing so I would
932
00:42:36,100 --> 00:42:38,800
think that there would be much more
933
00:42:37,210 --> 00:42:40,120
engagement between the United States and
934
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:42,280
Israel I think that would be some more
935
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,630
tension between the United States and
936
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,580
Israel under the current Israeli
937
00:42:43,630 --> 00:42:48,490
government if it were done in the next
938
00:42:45,580 --> 00:42:52,020
year or a year and a half than it is now
939
00:42:48,490 --> 00:42:56,080
but I don't think it's a return to to
940
00:42:52,020 --> 00:42:58,030
some of the more difficult aspects of
941
00:42:56,080 --> 00:43:01,240
the bilateral relationship between Obama
942
00:42:58,030 --> 00:43:02,950
and Netanyahu but this country will be
943
00:43:01,240 --> 00:43:05,020
far more globalist focus that will
944
00:43:02,950 --> 00:43:07,530
reengage with the with the Atlantic
945
00:43:05,020 --> 00:43:11,770
community with Europe it will reengage
946
00:43:07,530 --> 00:43:16,410
with with with China as well and not
947
00:43:11,770 --> 00:43:19,780
only speak negatively and create
948
00:43:16,410 --> 00:43:21,010
tremendous problems in the bilateral
949
00:43:19,780 --> 00:43:24,010
relationship between the United States
950
00:43:21,010 --> 00:43:26,230
and China that's not to say that Biden
951
00:43:24,010 --> 00:43:27,640
disagrees with some of trumps positions
952
00:43:26,230 --> 00:43:32,160
on China I think he agrees with some of
953
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:36,490
them but there will be a lowering of the
954
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:39,670
hot debate through Twitter that will
955
00:43:36,490 --> 00:43:41,350
certainly happen it's quite fascinating
956
00:43:39,670 --> 00:43:44,560
but the last two questions that have
957
00:43:41,350 --> 00:43:49,450
come in are both the same question and
958
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:51,190
they are from my now Helmut Rahn
959
00:43:49,450 --> 00:43:55,660
who's professor of urban planning at
960
00:43:51,190 --> 00:43:58,540
HPRC in Egypt and from Gregg so Sal
961
00:43:55,660 --> 00:43:59,589
kovetz and the question is this do you
962
00:43:58,540 --> 00:44:02,499
think progressives would
963
00:43:59,589 --> 00:44:04,869
support Paris or Demings as VP with
964
00:44:02,499 --> 00:44:08,529
their histories as prosecutors or police
965
00:44:04,869 --> 00:44:09,969
chief impressive how much now inside the
966
00:44:08,529 --> 00:44:13,390
country and outside the United States
967
00:44:09,969 --> 00:44:15,759
people are have so much knowledge of our
968
00:44:13,390 --> 00:44:19,509
candidates look this is a challenge for
969
00:44:15,759 --> 00:44:21,369
Biden but I do think that as a direct
970
00:44:19,509 --> 00:44:23,880
result of what is occurring right now in
971
00:44:21,369 --> 00:44:27,940
the United States after the murder of
972
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:31,119
George Floyd I think that the
973
00:44:27,940 --> 00:44:34,869
determination for progressives in the
974
00:44:31,119 --> 00:44:37,479
Democratic Party to ensure that Trump
975
00:44:34,869 --> 00:44:40,779
does not get reelected would dictate and
976
00:44:37,479 --> 00:44:42,789
push progressives who would under other
977
00:44:40,779 --> 00:44:44,499
circumstances either sit out the
978
00:44:42,789 --> 00:44:47,529
election well would probably sit out the
979
00:44:44,499 --> 00:44:51,940
election I think it would push them to
980
00:44:47,529 --> 00:44:54,099
vote for Biden notwithstanding the
981
00:44:51,940 --> 00:44:56,499
previous issues that Biden had with with
982
00:44:54,099 --> 00:44:59,469
recipe part of the party I also think
983
00:44:56,499 --> 00:45:02,969
that this time for probably the first
984
00:44:59,469 --> 00:45:05,769
time in many many years his choice of a
985
00:45:02,969 --> 00:45:07,450
running mate while it normally is a one
986
00:45:05,769 --> 00:45:10,299
or two or three days story other than
987
00:45:07,450 --> 00:45:13,410
2008 but normally it's a one or two day
988
00:45:10,299 --> 00:45:16,599
story everyone focuses on the on the
989
00:45:13,410 --> 00:45:18,910
person who heads the ticket I think this
990
00:45:16,599 --> 00:45:22,119
time his choice could have a profound
991
00:45:18,910 --> 00:45:25,210
effect on whether he ends up inside the
992
00:45:22,119 --> 00:45:27,309
White House and I do think that a higher
993
00:45:25,210 --> 00:45:29,469
percentage of progressives in the party
994
00:45:27,309 --> 00:45:33,309
than one would normally think will come
995
00:45:29,469 --> 00:45:35,769
out and vote for him here's a question
996
00:45:33,309 --> 00:45:37,839
from Jonathan Jacoby founding director
997
00:45:35,769 --> 00:45:40,469
of Israel Policy Forum and new Israel
998
00:45:37,839 --> 00:45:42,630
fund and a UCLA alone there are
999
00:45:40,469 --> 00:45:45,069
evangelicals who promote anti-semitism
1000
00:45:42,630 --> 00:45:48,339
what are their motivations for
1001
00:45:45,069 --> 00:45:50,140
supporting hardliners in Israel why has
1002
00:45:48,339 --> 00:45:54,670
there not been more pushback from
1003
00:45:50,140 --> 00:45:56,289
American Jews I am NOT an expert in the
1004
00:45:54,670 --> 00:45:58,479
internal politics of the American Jewish
1005
00:45:56,289 --> 00:46:01,420
community so I don't want to I don't
1006
00:45:58,479 --> 00:46:04,180
want to address that I again think that
1007
00:46:01,420 --> 00:46:08,410
the evangelical community number one is
1008
00:46:04,180 --> 00:46:13,240
focused on Israel being a strong country
1009
00:46:08,410 --> 00:46:19,540
on a right-wing perception of what
1010
00:46:13,240 --> 00:46:23,410
a strong country means and I do not
1011
00:46:19,540 --> 00:46:25,900
think that some of the questionable
1012
00:46:23,410 --> 00:46:31,090
anti-semitic statements that have been
1013
00:46:25,900 --> 00:46:33,610
made by various evangelicals will in any
1014
00:46:31,090 --> 00:46:36,430
way change how Israel the current
1015
00:46:33,610 --> 00:46:37,840
Israeli government views the Evangel
1016
00:46:36,430 --> 00:46:39,430
community or for that matter how the
1017
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:42,250
president needs the evangelical
1018
00:46:39,430 --> 00:46:44,080
community here's a question from dr.
1019
00:46:42,250 --> 00:46:46,330
Mohammed ooh-la associate professor of
1020
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:48,940
economics University of Nevada in Oman
1021
00:46:46,330 --> 00:46:50,350
will it be economically beneficial for
1022
00:46:48,940 --> 00:46:52,660
the u.s. in terms of keeping the
1023
00:46:50,350 --> 00:46:56,050
stability of dollar value if it engages
1024
00:46:52,660 --> 00:46:58,150
further trade war with China well that's
1025
00:46:56,050 --> 00:47:00,610
the you know that's the big that's the
1026
00:46:58,150 --> 00:47:01,150
big debate amongst economists of which I
1027
00:47:00,610 --> 00:47:06,220
am NOT
1028
00:47:01,150 --> 00:47:07,750
and I think most economists irrespective
1029
00:47:06,220 --> 00:47:09,970
of which party they support or which
1030
00:47:07,750 --> 00:47:12,970
person they support for president will
1031
00:47:09,970 --> 00:47:15,010
agree that an all-out trade war and
1032
00:47:12,970 --> 00:47:17,200
all-out trade war with with China is not
1033
00:47:15,010 --> 00:47:21,580
in the best interests of the United
1034
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:25,710
States or China here's a question from
1035
00:47:21,580 --> 00:47:28,480
Dan Carter of Princeton University a
1036
00:47:25,710 --> 00:47:31,000
friend of the great number of people on
1037
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:33,100
this call are there statistics on the
1038
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:35,260
impact of covin and unemployment
1039
00:47:33,100 --> 00:47:44,760
specifically only been Jellicle
1040
00:47:35,260 --> 00:47:49,420
communities around the country well the
1041
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:52,270
the drop in evangelical support for
1042
00:47:49,420 --> 00:47:55,450
Trump over the last two months is a
1043
00:47:52,270 --> 00:47:58,540
direct result of the coronavirus the way
1044
00:47:55,450 --> 00:48:03,520
his handling of the coronavirus as well
1045
00:47:58,540 --> 00:48:05,260
as the economic dislocation so I do
1046
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:08,230
think but I don't have it handy right
1047
00:48:05,260 --> 00:48:10,180
now that there are specific numbers
1048
00:48:08,230 --> 00:48:14,470
amongst evangelical voters in the six in
1049
00:48:10,180 --> 00:48:17,200
the six swing states of where they stand
1050
00:48:14,470 --> 00:48:18,400
on on these specific issues but I don't
1051
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:20,859
have them available right now but
1052
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:22,930
there's been a significant six or seven
1053
00:48:20,859 --> 00:48:26,220
or eight point drop amongst evangelical
1054
00:48:22,930 --> 00:48:26,220
support for Trump in the last two months
1055
00:48:26,950 --> 00:48:33,849
okay let's go on to Professor Lehman a
1056
00:48:31,390 --> 00:48:35,920
retired professor of pathology from UVM
1057
00:48:33,849 --> 00:48:38,799
what are the cysts Biden to emphasize
1058
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:42,280
foreign policy during his campaign I'm
1059
00:48:38,799 --> 00:48:44,440
sorry you would eat a cyst Biden to
1060
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:46,750
emphasize foreign policy during his
1061
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:49,059
campaign look the word emphasizes a very
1062
00:48:46,750 --> 00:48:52,780
difficult I want to be careful here most
1063
00:48:49,059 --> 00:48:55,119
American campaigns are about domestic
1064
00:48:52,780 --> 00:48:58,150
issues and given where the country is
1065
00:48:55,119 --> 00:49:00,910
today and given what happened in this
1066
00:48:58,150 --> 00:49:03,730
country in the last nine days or nine
1067
00:49:00,910 --> 00:49:06,609
days ago I'm given the funeral today I
1068
00:49:03,730 --> 00:49:11,109
think that domestic the domestic
1069
00:49:06,609 --> 00:49:13,030
upheaval the lack of unity the what is
1070
00:49:11,109 --> 00:49:16,420
going on internally in the United States
1071
00:49:13,030 --> 00:49:19,089
will be far far more important in the
1072
00:49:16,420 --> 00:49:23,250
presidential campaign than issues of
1073
00:49:19,089 --> 00:49:27,210
foreign policy given the coronavirus
1074
00:49:23,250 --> 00:49:31,390
given given the economic recession and
1075
00:49:27,210 --> 00:49:33,640
given the murder and subsequent protests
1076
00:49:31,390 --> 00:49:36,400
and how those protests are being handled
1077
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:38,290
by the administration I think that is
1078
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:40,150
where frankly from a political point of
1079
00:49:38,290 --> 00:49:41,710
view the campaign should focus it's at
1080
00:49:40,150 --> 00:49:46,079
the Biden campaign should focus its
1081
00:49:41,710 --> 00:49:48,520
attention at the same time I think that
1082
00:49:46,079 --> 00:49:51,540
the way China fits into this obviously
1083
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:54,280
that becomes a foreign policy issue and
1084
00:49:51,540 --> 00:49:56,799
he certainly and the campaign would
1085
00:49:54,280 --> 00:50:00,190
certainly address address the Chinese
1086
00:49:56,799 --> 00:50:03,760
issues as well as some of the as well as
1087
00:50:00,190 --> 00:50:07,299
Hong Kong now and also address but to a
1088
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:09,579
lesser degree address the break between
1089
00:50:07,299 --> 00:50:11,619
the United States and its traditional
1090
00:50:09,579 --> 00:50:12,849
European allies but to say that it's
1091
00:50:11,619 --> 00:50:15,700
going to be at the very top of the
1092
00:50:12,849 --> 00:50:17,290
agenda foreign policy is rarely if ever
1093
00:50:15,700 --> 00:50:22,299
at the very top of an agenda
1094
00:50:17,290 --> 00:50:25,480
international presidential race I might
1095
00:50:22,299 --> 00:50:27,250
to remind people that we try to have one
1096
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,630
question per person if we have time
1097
00:50:27,250 --> 00:50:31,930
we'll try to get second questions in
1098
00:50:28,630 --> 00:50:34,930
here's some here's Eric's a claw from
1099
00:50:31,930 --> 00:50:36,369
Los Angeles a UCLA alumni picked one of
1100
00:50:34,930 --> 00:50:38,079
his questions the Palestinians have
1101
00:50:36,369 --> 00:50:40,690
refused to direct negotiations with
1102
00:50:38,079 --> 00:50:42,880
Israel for more than 12 years what makes
1103
00:50:40,690 --> 00:50:47,050
you think a Biden administration would
1104
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:48,550
change that first of all I am not sure
1105
00:50:47,050 --> 00:50:50,619
about the administration would change
1106
00:50:48,550 --> 00:50:54,490
that but I do think they're you know
1107
00:50:50,619 --> 00:50:56,410
they're the answer to that is an attempt
1108
00:50:54,490 --> 00:50:58,030
to look at both what is going on
1109
00:50:56,410 --> 00:50:59,619
domestically in Israel and what is going
1110
00:50:58,030 --> 00:51:04,480
on domestically in the United States I
1111
00:50:59,619 --> 00:51:10,089
think that the amount of frankly
1112
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:13,599
pressure by the US on Israel would
1113
00:51:10,089 --> 00:51:18,520
increase in a Biden administration than
1114
00:51:13,599 --> 00:51:21,190
it currently is and I think also that I
1115
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:24,520
don't mean that the u.s. necessarily
1116
00:51:21,190 --> 00:51:25,569
will begin demanding things of Israel
1117
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:27,849
but I think there'll be a gentle
1118
00:51:25,569 --> 00:51:30,280
persuasion that will begin whether it
1119
00:51:27,849 --> 00:51:34,000
will be successful or not I really don't
1120
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:36,609
know and it also depends on the timing
1121
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:41,010
of it let's not forget that whenever if
1122
00:51:36,609 --> 00:51:45,460
if there's a new president in January of
1123
00:51:41,010 --> 00:51:48,130
2021 that is 10 months removed from when
1124
00:51:45,460 --> 00:51:50,349
there has to be a turnover in who the
1125
00:51:48,130 --> 00:51:52,050
Prime Minister of Israel is under the
1126
00:51:50,349 --> 00:51:56,890
current agreement between between
1127
00:51:52,050 --> 00:52:00,630
between Netanyahu and former general
1128
00:51:56,890 --> 00:52:04,599
Ganz so I do think that there will be
1129
00:52:00,630 --> 00:52:07,470
internal dynamics in both countries that
1130
00:52:04,599 --> 00:52:11,290
one could at least begin to think about
1131
00:52:07,470 --> 00:52:13,690
movement by the Israelis on the
1132
00:52:11,290 --> 00:52:17,650
Palestinian issue I also think that the
1133
00:52:13,690 --> 00:52:20,130
rest of the Arab world would also weigh
1134
00:52:17,650 --> 00:52:25,780
in on this to a degree that's right now
1135
00:52:20,130 --> 00:52:27,220
sort of questionable uh let me I'm gonna
1136
00:52:25,780 --> 00:52:29,290
ask a question here I get a little
1137
00:52:27,220 --> 00:52:33,760
frustrated sometimes ask anybody else's
1138
00:52:29,290 --> 00:52:37,990
questions and the latest news suggests
1139
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:41,319
that there is a dramatic increase in the
1140
00:52:37,990 --> 00:52:44,260
virus in Latin America and Africa the
1141
00:52:41,319 --> 00:52:46,210
Middle East even Asia let's focus on the
1142
00:52:44,260 --> 00:52:48,010
Middle East of course what does that
1143
00:52:46,210 --> 00:52:51,430
gonna do do you think to America's
1144
00:52:48,010 --> 00:52:54,050
policy of course in part depends on
1145
00:52:51,430 --> 00:52:57,740
who's elected but is the
1146
00:52:54,050 --> 00:53:00,920
how is the virus increase going to
1147
00:52:57,740 --> 00:53:04,340
affect that policy look let's talk about
1148
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:07,250
the virus today and the reality is that
1149
00:53:04,340 --> 00:53:09,430
the virus in the Middle East is far
1150
00:53:07,250 --> 00:53:11,150
lower than other parts of the world
1151
00:53:09,430 --> 00:53:13,460
whether it's Jordan
1152
00:53:11,150 --> 00:53:17,330
whether it's Lebanon whether it's the
1153
00:53:13,460 --> 00:53:19,790
Gulf whether its Israel actually Israel
1154
00:53:17,330 --> 00:53:25,480
is higher than some of its neighbors yes
1155
00:53:19,790 --> 00:53:25,480
I am NOT referring necessarily to to
1156
00:53:26,500 --> 00:53:34,220
Egypt or Iran but other parts of the
1157
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:36,710
Middle East have done a
1158
00:53:34,220 --> 00:53:38,740
better-than-expected job in dealing with
1159
00:53:36,710 --> 00:53:42,530
the virus for whatever the reasons are
1160
00:53:38,740 --> 00:53:45,380
and therefore I think you know to ask
1161
00:53:42,530 --> 00:53:48,860
what would happen if the virus would
1162
00:53:45,380 --> 00:53:50,390
push up is something that I Frank we
1163
00:53:48,860 --> 00:53:52,820
don't have a you know an immediate
1164
00:53:50,390 --> 00:53:54,290
answer to the United States is going to
1165
00:53:52,820 --> 00:53:58,310
be pulling and Europe for that matter
1166
00:53:54,290 --> 00:54:01,520
are probably going to be facing other
1167
00:53:58,310 --> 00:54:04,940
issues come September October in the
1168
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:09,110
virus coming back as a lot of medical
1169
00:54:04,940 --> 00:54:11,300
experts predict and I therefore think
1170
00:54:09,110 --> 00:54:15,740
that there won't be that much attention
1171
00:54:11,300 --> 00:54:19,690
on how US policy would change if there
1172
00:54:15,740 --> 00:54:22,310
is an increase in the Cova 19 virus that
1173
00:54:19,690 --> 00:54:23,360
overtakes parts that only takes parts of
1174
00:54:22,310 --> 00:54:26,690
the Middle East I think it's going to be
1175
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:28,490
much more us oriented and to a lesser
1176
00:54:26,690 --> 00:54:33,710
degree European oriented the real
1177
00:54:28,490 --> 00:54:35,750
question I think is when is the world
1178
00:54:33,710 --> 00:54:38,360
going to be or Europe the United States
1179
00:54:35,750 --> 00:54:40,340
Middle East when are they going to when
1180
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:43,070
are we going to feel a bit more
1181
00:54:40,340 --> 00:54:46,580
comfortable in jumping on a plane and
1182
00:54:43,070 --> 00:54:48,590
being able to go to you know to go to
1183
00:54:46,580 --> 00:54:50,090
another country right now that that
1184
00:54:48,590 --> 00:54:51,860
doesn't exist certainly here in the
1185
00:54:50,090 --> 00:54:56,630
United States it's beginning to happen
1186
00:54:51,860 --> 00:54:59,840
in certain parts of Europe and in one or
1187
00:54:56,630 --> 00:55:02,600
two countries in the Middle East but how
1188
00:54:59,840 --> 00:55:04,910
that's going to play out is something
1189
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:07,430
that I'm not prepared to to predict I've
1190
00:55:04,910 --> 00:55:08,780
already predicted too much
1191
00:55:07,430 --> 00:55:11,390
all right here's a question from Hussein
1192
00:55:08,780 --> 00:55:13,339
Malik from Iran what do you think about
1193
00:55:11,390 --> 00:55:16,430
the prisoner swap between Iran and the
1194
00:55:13,339 --> 00:55:19,069
United States during during this period
1195
00:55:16,430 --> 00:55:22,670
I think is what he means with regards to
1196
00:55:19,069 --> 00:55:23,720
the Iranian American relationship and
1197
00:55:22,670 --> 00:55:26,119
you were pick I don't understand the
1198
00:55:23,720 --> 00:55:30,380
question the question is given the
1199
00:55:26,119 --> 00:55:33,050
recent prisoner swap swap how does that
1200
00:55:30,380 --> 00:55:36,230
affect the relationship now in the
1201
00:55:33,050 --> 00:55:39,859
future and I think that's what mr. Malik
1202
00:55:36,230 --> 00:55:41,599
is suggesting for the Iranian American
1203
00:55:39,859 --> 00:55:43,760
relationship I think I addressed in my
1204
00:55:41,599 --> 00:55:46,329
remarks before that there's been a
1205
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:51,680
slight lowering of tensions between
1206
00:55:46,329 --> 00:55:55,089
between the United States and Iran on
1207
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:59,390
both sides over the past several weeks
1208
00:55:55,089 --> 00:56:01,880
notwithstanding I think a lot of what
1209
00:55:59,390 --> 00:56:04,190
may happen depends right now more on
1210
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:06,250
Iran than on the United States I mean
1211
00:56:04,190 --> 00:56:09,290
the US right now is beginning is in the
1212
00:56:06,250 --> 00:56:11,510
stages now of a full-blown presidential
1213
00:56:09,290 --> 00:56:15,770
campaign excuse me with all of the
1214
00:56:11,510 --> 00:56:17,990
attendant critical issues that need to
1215
00:56:15,770 --> 00:56:19,760
be addressed in order for each candidate
1216
00:56:17,990 --> 00:56:23,359
of each of the political parties to win
1217
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:26,510
the campaign and therefore initiating
1218
00:56:23,359 --> 00:56:30,880
something by the u.s. is less than if
1219
00:56:26,510 --> 00:56:34,520
Iran decides to initiate and if Iran
1220
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:37,790
continues to do things as it recently
1221
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:39,280
did in the cyber world in an aside were
1222
00:56:37,790 --> 00:56:41,420
attack on Israel and Israel's response
1223
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:45,440
clearly the United States will support
1224
00:56:41,420 --> 00:56:48,740
Israel going forward but I don't think
1225
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:51,410
the United's at least from my limited
1226
00:56:48,740 --> 00:56:52,700
knowledge and very limited knowledge I
1227
00:56:51,410 --> 00:56:57,650
don't think the United States would
1228
00:56:52,700 --> 00:56:59,450
initiate anything in a vacuum so to some
1229
00:56:57,650 --> 00:56:59,930
degree over the next several months at
1230
00:56:59,450 --> 00:57:03,049
least
1231
00:56:59,930 --> 00:57:05,470
Iran to a very large degree will
1232
00:57:03,049 --> 00:57:09,220
determine if it will see any u.s.
1233
00:57:05,470 --> 00:57:12,980
increase of tensions or decrease
1234
00:57:09,220 --> 00:57:16,099
depending on what it does here's Harold
1235
00:57:12,980 --> 00:57:17,780
Rosenblatt a UCLA senior scholar what
1236
00:57:16,099 --> 00:57:20,030
Biden's chances to be stronger if he
1237
00:57:17,780 --> 00:57:22,910
names his cabinet as well as his VP
1238
00:57:20,030 --> 00:57:25,100
in advance would put what potential VP
1239
00:57:22,910 --> 00:57:27,350
has the best governing experience to be
1240
00:57:25,100 --> 00:57:29,330
able to step into the presidency if
1241
00:57:27,350 --> 00:57:32,290
needed I'm sure you'd love the answer
1242
00:57:29,330 --> 00:57:35,780
that I have I have conflicting
1243
00:57:32,290 --> 00:57:38,390
conflicting views about this on on the
1244
00:57:35,780 --> 00:57:40,340
one hand it's it makes for very good
1245
00:57:38,390 --> 00:57:41,330
theater and very good you know one or
1246
00:57:40,340 --> 00:57:44,360
two days story
1247
00:57:41,330 --> 00:57:46,550
if he starts announcing who his who his
1248
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:48,170
cabinet will be I don't think he would
1249
00:57:46,550 --> 00:57:49,820
do that other than to say that it would
1250
00:57:48,170 --> 00:57:51,650
be an all inclusive cabinet with
1251
00:57:49,820 --> 00:57:54,800
Republicans in it as well as Democrats
1252
00:57:51,650 --> 00:57:56,950
going to the question of his running
1253
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:56,950
mate
1254
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:04,400
several of the Lee candidates that are
1255
00:58:00,740 --> 00:58:11,270
being vetted right now by Biden's team
1256
00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:12,980
are clearly important for segments of
1257
00:58:11,270 --> 00:58:17,000
the Democratic Party that need to come
1258
00:58:12,980 --> 00:58:20,330
out and vote and don't necessarily have
1259
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:21,200
that much political experience as one
1260
00:58:20,330 --> 00:58:23,480
would expect
1261
00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:25,700
but then again we just elected a
1262
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:30,860
president in 2016 who had no experience
1263
00:58:25,700 --> 00:58:35,210
and he was elected president so the
1264
00:58:30,860 --> 00:58:37,730
notion or for that matter is he ready
1265
00:58:35,210 --> 00:58:41,240
you know is he ready to be President and
1266
00:58:37,730 --> 00:58:43,510
from my perspective he's not he wasn't
1267
00:58:41,240 --> 00:58:45,980
ready to be president and even today I
1268
00:58:43,510 --> 00:58:47,740
would argue he's unfit to be President
1269
00:58:45,980 --> 00:58:51,710
personally those are my personal views
1270
00:58:47,740 --> 00:58:55,990
but that being said Biden does have
1271
00:58:51,710 --> 00:58:58,730
experience and clearly who he chooses is
1272
00:58:55,990 --> 00:59:00,200
going to mean could very well end up
1273
00:58:58,730 --> 00:59:05,660
being the President of the United States
1274
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:08,450
in a much greater possibility than ever
1275
00:59:05,660 --> 00:59:10,430
before so the experience issue is
1276
00:59:08,450 --> 00:59:13,040
something that you know that needs to be
1277
00:59:10,430 --> 00:59:14,630
that needs to be considered but when you
1278
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:15,470
talk about experience what do you you
1279
00:59:14,630 --> 00:59:17,120
know what's your definition of
1280
00:59:15,470 --> 00:59:20,720
experience someone who's been in
1281
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:22,730
politics in my view has experience
1282
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:24,500
because no one has experienced to be
1283
00:59:22,730 --> 00:59:26,750
President when you when you become
1284
00:59:24,500 --> 00:59:29,390
president no one has ever been president
1285
00:59:26,750 --> 00:59:31,310
who hasn't you know wasn't the president
1286
00:59:29,390 --> 00:59:32,780
before so it's a new experience the
1287
00:59:31,310 --> 00:59:33,890
question is whether he is politically
1288
00:59:32,780 --> 00:59:37,790
astute
1289
00:59:33,890 --> 00:59:40,700
that he or she in this case she knows
1290
00:59:37,790 --> 00:59:44,150
how to or someone believes we believe
1291
00:59:40,700 --> 00:59:48,740
that that person knows will know how to
1292
00:59:44,150 --> 00:59:51,920
unite the country and play a as large of
1293
00:59:48,740 --> 00:59:54,950
a role to Biden as Biden played for
1294
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:56,540
Obama but I think that all of the
1295
00:59:54,950 --> 00:59:58,430
candidates that are being vetted now
1296
00:59:56,540 --> 01:00:00,670
there's some that are better than others
1297
00:59:58,430 --> 01:00:04,070
in my view but that's a personal view
1298
01:00:00,670 --> 01:00:06,290
even though they may not be known as
1299
01:00:04,070 --> 01:00:08,030
well as one would expect I mean how many
1300
01:00:06,290 --> 01:00:11,210
people knew who congresswoman Val
1301
01:00:08,030 --> 01:00:15,680
Demings was is you know several months
1302
01:00:11,210 --> 01:00:18,920
ago yet she clearly and others are
1303
01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:22,540
clearly serious candidates that are
1304
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:26,240
being vetted by by the president now I
1305
01:00:22,540 --> 01:00:28,580
would argue that it would be far better
1306
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:30,950
for him to have an african-american
1307
01:00:28,580 --> 01:00:32,570
woman running as his running mate then I
1308
01:00:30,950 --> 01:00:35,570
would have said two months ago or a
1309
01:00:32,570 --> 01:00:37,520
month ago but given what is happening
1310
01:00:35,570 --> 01:00:38,960
not what has happened but what is
1311
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:44,210
happening right now in the United States
1312
01:00:38,960 --> 01:00:46,280
I think that going or picking an
1313
01:00:44,210 --> 01:00:48,530
african-american woman as his running
1314
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:52,340
mate would be a very very strong
1315
01:00:48,530 --> 01:00:54,590
statement and I therefore think that
1316
01:00:52,340 --> 01:00:57,980
whether it's Camilla Harris or whether
1317
01:00:54,590 --> 01:00:59,930
it's Val Demings or whether it's bottoms
1318
01:00:57,980 --> 01:01:03,470
of Atlanta the ones that we showed
1319
01:00:59,930 --> 01:01:07,190
before they are they are strong strong
1320
01:01:03,470 --> 01:01:09,860
candidates who I think are being
1321
01:01:07,190 --> 01:01:13,880
seriously considered right now by the
1322
01:01:09,860 --> 01:01:15,710
Biden we're trying to get it away from
1323
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:17,150
someone asking two questions but I'm
1324
01:01:15,710 --> 01:01:19,070
intrigued with the following one it's a
1325
01:01:17,150 --> 01:01:22,900
man Tony the mule again from Greece how
1326
01:01:19,070 --> 01:01:25,910
can I make some kind of appeal to
1327
01:01:22,900 --> 01:01:29,060
evangelical voters who are disappointed
1328
01:01:25,910 --> 01:01:30,560
by Trump to expand his electoral lead
1329
01:01:29,060 --> 01:01:32,960
and take the White House I don't think
1330
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:34,940
he needs to have a separate nor should
1331
01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:38,420
he have a separate appeal to evangelical
1332
01:01:34,940 --> 01:01:44,150
voters I think I think that what he is
1333
01:01:38,420 --> 01:01:47,540
doing this week is is very important he
1334
01:01:44,150 --> 01:01:53,120
is engaging directly with
1335
01:01:47,540 --> 01:01:56,480
Church in its broadest way and he is
1336
01:01:53,120 --> 01:02:00,830
someone who when you compare him to the
1337
01:01:56,480 --> 01:02:03,910
president right now clearly should be
1338
01:02:00,830 --> 01:02:07,760
able to engage directly with those
1339
01:02:03,910 --> 01:02:10,820
evangelicals who are either disgusted or
1340
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:13,670
a leaving or a leaving Trump look there
1341
01:02:10,820 --> 01:02:17,960
are a number of them clearly
1342
01:02:13,670 --> 01:02:20,870
but Biden cannot just direct a campaign
1343
01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:22,940
at going after the five or six or seven
1344
01:02:20,870 --> 01:02:25,730
or eight percent of evangelical voters
1345
01:02:22,940 --> 01:02:28,550
he is an empathetic guy that is one of
1346
01:02:25,730 --> 01:02:30,440
his strengths in Contra distinction to
1347
01:02:28,550 --> 01:02:33,380
the current president and I think he
1348
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:37,850
should use that and he is using that I
1349
01:02:33,380 --> 01:02:42,530
think that while sometimes he trips
1350
01:02:37,850 --> 01:02:44,090
himself up speaks I think that over the
1351
01:02:42,530 --> 01:02:48,260
last week he has been far more
1352
01:02:44,090 --> 01:02:52,550
disciplined and in my opinion taking
1353
01:02:48,260 --> 01:02:55,700
advantage of the not only mistakes but
1354
01:02:52,550 --> 01:02:57,440
of a disgraceful response of the current
1355
01:02:55,700 --> 01:02:58,910
White House to the murder of George
1356
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:00,500
Floyd and I think he will be able to
1357
01:02:58,910 --> 01:03:03,950
develop that even with certain
1358
01:03:00,500 --> 01:03:06,770
evangelicals in certain key states but I
1359
01:03:03,950 --> 01:03:07,280
am by no means ready to concede right
1360
01:03:06,770 --> 01:03:09,050
now
1361
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:11,840
oh the election is over on the contrary
1362
01:03:09,050 --> 01:03:13,370
it's only beginning and there are going
1363
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:15,080
to be a lot of things that are going to
1364
01:03:13,370 --> 01:03:18,260
happen that none of us know about over
1365
01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:22,730
the next several months and the question
1366
01:03:18,260 --> 01:03:26,270
is going to be will Biden be able to to
1367
01:03:22,730 --> 01:03:29,120
rise up and be able to deal with
1368
01:03:26,270 --> 01:03:31,610
whatever is going to happen both from
1369
01:03:29,120 --> 01:03:33,710
Trump as well as from events that none
1370
01:03:31,610 --> 01:03:37,190
of us can foretell and you know foresee
1371
01:03:33,710 --> 01:03:40,280
right now we next is Scott Abramson
1372
01:03:37,190 --> 01:03:42,620
postdoctoral fellow at the Nazarene
1373
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:44,600
Center for Asian Studies at UCLA you
1374
01:03:42,620 --> 01:03:46,520
mentioned Israel's recent rejection
1375
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:48,770
under American pressure of a Chinese
1376
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:52,100
firms bid to build a desalination plant
1377
01:03:48,770 --> 01:03:54,440
in Israel given Trump's special animus
1378
01:03:52,100 --> 01:03:56,540
against Israel do you against China I'm
1379
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:58,880
sorry given Trump's special animus
1380
01:03:56,540 --> 01:04:01,160
against China do you think American
1381
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:03,619
pressure to restrict Chinese investment
1382
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:06,109
in Israel would let up to any
1383
01:04:03,619 --> 01:04:14,450
significant degree under a Biden
1384
01:04:06,109 --> 01:04:14,900
presidency I don't know the answer to
1385
01:04:14,450 --> 01:04:21,980
that
1386
01:04:14,900 --> 01:04:24,559
however the the tremendous engagement in
1387
01:04:21,980 --> 01:04:26,980
the bilateral Israeli Chinese
1388
01:04:24,559 --> 01:04:30,710
relationship over the past 10 years is
1389
01:04:26,980 --> 01:04:34,789
profound the amount of Chinese
1390
01:04:30,710 --> 01:04:36,680
investment in Israeli in the Israeli
1391
01:04:34,789 --> 01:04:43,519
hi-tech community and an Israeli
1392
01:04:36,680 --> 01:04:46,220
companies is huge now I think that even
1393
01:04:43,519 --> 01:04:48,910
in Israel there is a realization that
1394
01:04:46,220 --> 01:04:50,779
there is some serious issues here
1395
01:04:48,910 --> 01:04:53,150
security issues from Israel's
1396
01:04:50,779 --> 01:04:56,299
perspective also however how do you
1397
01:04:53,150 --> 01:04:59,059
control that the reality is that many of
1398
01:04:56,299 --> 01:05:01,519
the high-tech companies are and
1399
01:04:59,059 --> 01:05:05,450
entrepreneurs in Israel come from
1400
01:05:01,519 --> 01:05:08,150
Israel's cyber unit the unit 8200 but
1401
01:05:05,450 --> 01:05:11,960
know you know and they they are taught
1402
01:05:08,150 --> 01:05:15,950
in unit 8200 how to think in a certain
1403
01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:18,380
way and what a lot of these people are
1404
01:05:15,950 --> 01:05:20,750
doing now young people are doing now are
1405
01:05:18,380 --> 01:05:22,250
taking the knowledge that they learn I
1406
01:05:20,750 --> 01:05:23,630
am NOT talking about the technical
1407
01:05:22,250 --> 01:05:26,599
knowledge I'm talking about how to think
1408
01:05:23,630 --> 01:05:30,970
and how to approach a problem and they
1409
01:05:26,599 --> 01:05:36,319
are applying it in developing various
1410
01:05:30,970 --> 01:05:39,740
various applications but companies in
1411
01:05:36,319 --> 01:05:42,440
the high-tech field that while not in
1412
01:05:39,740 --> 01:05:45,890
any way divulging necessarily any
1413
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:48,829
military secrets are is beginning to be
1414
01:05:45,890 --> 01:05:50,990
and have a you know security
1415
01:05:48,829 --> 01:05:53,089
implications when China is coming in and
1416
01:05:50,990 --> 01:05:56,150
throwing 10 20 30 million dollars at a
1417
01:05:53,089 --> 01:05:59,809
28 year old person for whatever new
1418
01:05:56,150 --> 01:06:04,430
application or new new technology that
1419
01:05:59,809 --> 01:06:05,539
person that person develops Israel is
1420
01:06:04,430 --> 01:06:06,859
struggling with that as much as the
1421
01:06:05,539 --> 01:06:09,319
United States is struggling with that
1422
01:06:06,859 --> 01:06:13,690
and I think the United States has done
1423
01:06:09,319 --> 01:06:15,089
more to stop American companies from
1424
01:06:13,690 --> 01:06:16,920
engaging
1425
01:06:15,089 --> 01:06:19,140
much with Chinese companies or letting
1426
01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:22,650
pennies companies invest in them I think
1427
01:06:19,140 --> 01:06:27,499
Israel is now beginning to to look at it
1428
01:06:22,650 --> 01:06:30,539
the same way but the level of Chinese
1429
01:06:27,499 --> 01:06:33,539
activity in Israel do not underestimate
1430
01:06:30,539 --> 01:06:37,579
the activity that is going on and I
1431
01:06:33,539 --> 01:06:41,249
think it will continue to go on until
1432
01:06:37,579 --> 01:06:42,749
within Israel they determine this you
1433
01:06:41,249 --> 01:06:45,719
can do in this you can't do I think
1434
01:06:42,749 --> 01:06:48,450
Israeli Israeli companies are beginning
1435
01:06:45,719 --> 01:06:50,369
to be a lot more sensitive to the
1436
01:06:48,450 --> 01:06:53,819
Chinese investment question than they
1437
01:06:50,369 --> 01:07:04,769
were two or three years ago primarily
1438
01:06:53,819 --> 01:07:06,979
due to the United States I I don't know
1439
01:07:04,769 --> 01:07:10,589
who's asking a question but I'm going to
1440
01:07:06,979 --> 01:07:14,279
give you peggy McKinney's question from
1441
01:07:10,589 --> 01:07:16,019
UCLA good friend of the center is is it
1442
01:07:14,279 --> 01:07:17,759
possible that the Trump appointments to
1443
01:07:16,019 --> 01:07:20,849
the Supreme Court and US appellate
1444
01:07:17,759 --> 01:07:22,259
courts will work to deal the Janome eyes
1445
01:07:20,849 --> 01:07:24,690
the court system in the eyes of the
1446
01:07:22,259 --> 01:07:27,599
majority of US citizens given their
1447
01:07:24,690 --> 01:07:29,999
ecological convictions of these jurors
1448
01:07:27,599 --> 01:07:32,670
so far from majority public opinion on
1449
01:07:29,999 --> 01:07:36,859
such issues as abortion gerrymandering
1450
01:07:32,670 --> 01:07:36,859
and dark money in political campaigns
1451
01:07:37,219 --> 01:07:49,049
look I one of the key issues for the
1452
01:07:47,130 --> 01:07:51,210
Democratic Party and for those that vote
1453
01:07:49,049 --> 01:07:54,239
Democrat is what's happening to the
1454
01:07:51,210 --> 01:07:56,999
court system I think there are
1455
01:07:54,239 --> 01:08:01,140
Republicans and there are Republican
1456
01:07:56,999 --> 01:08:02,549
groups on the issue of the courts they
1457
01:08:01,140 --> 01:08:04,140
do not question that they're actually
1458
01:08:02,549 --> 01:08:07,469
very much in favor of the Federalist
1459
01:08:04,140 --> 01:08:11,819
Society for sure so I don't think it is
1460
01:08:07,469 --> 01:08:13,380
going to be a determining factor within
1461
01:08:11,819 --> 01:08:14,910
the Republican Party but of course not
1462
01:08:13,380 --> 01:08:20,159
they they they embrace it
1463
01:08:14,910 --> 01:08:23,400
however people who may not necessarily
1464
01:08:20,159 --> 01:08:25,619
agree with Biden or may be disappointed
1465
01:08:23,400 --> 01:08:27,779
with Biden one of the issues that the
1466
01:08:25,619 --> 01:08:28,890
that he and his campaign will use is
1467
01:08:27,779 --> 01:08:31,350
where
1468
01:08:28,890 --> 01:08:32,910
the where the courts are going and it's
1469
01:08:31,350 --> 01:08:35,220
a generational thing it's not going to
1470
01:08:32,910 --> 01:08:38,090
change with the next president as I said
1471
01:08:35,220 --> 01:08:40,980
the judges that are being placed on
1472
01:08:38,090 --> 01:08:44,510
district appellate and Supreme Court's a
1473
01:08:40,980 --> 01:08:47,460
federal are going to have profound
1474
01:08:44,510 --> 01:08:50,310
profound effect here in the United
1475
01:08:47,460 --> 01:08:52,020
States for generations to come now
1476
01:08:50,310 --> 01:08:53,970
certain people are going to be
1477
01:08:52,020 --> 01:08:56,700
influenced by that and others aren't but
1478
01:08:53,970 --> 01:08:57,720
I don't think excuse me I don't think at
1479
01:08:56,700 --> 01:09:00,000
the end of the day it's going to be a
1480
01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:02,580
determining factor look I think at the
1481
01:09:00,000 --> 01:09:05,520
end of the day this campaign is going to
1482
01:09:02,580 --> 01:09:06,510
be the reverse of the last campaign in
1483
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:08,960
2016
1484
01:09:06,510 --> 01:09:11,940
even people who are not necessarily
1485
01:09:08,960 --> 01:09:15,330
supportive of Biden are going to be so
1486
01:09:11,940 --> 01:09:16,770
disgusted and want Trump out that they
1487
01:09:15,330 --> 01:09:18,330
will therefore vote for Biden so it's
1488
01:09:16,770 --> 01:09:21,600
going to be a vote not for Biden it's
1489
01:09:18,330 --> 01:09:23,880
going to be a vote against Trump there
1490
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:26,130
are people who firmly believe that while
1491
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:28,050
the United States will probably survive
1492
01:09:26,130 --> 01:09:29,970
four years of Trump the United States
1493
01:09:28,050 --> 01:09:31,680
will have serious problems not being
1494
01:09:29,970 --> 01:09:34,050
able to survive eight years of Trump and
1495
01:09:31,680 --> 01:09:36,690
that will push a lot of people who
1496
01:09:34,050 --> 01:09:38,240
ordinarily may not have voted to vote
1497
01:09:36,690 --> 01:09:42,060
for Biden
1498
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:44,480
well we kind of asked you to know
1499
01:09:42,060 --> 01:09:48,390
everything's if and here's a question
1500
01:09:44,480 --> 01:09:51,360
that channel that really puts you on the
1501
01:09:48,390 --> 01:09:52,740
line stamp-sized a politician and
1502
01:09:51,360 --> 01:09:56,400
university lecturer from the Kurdistan
1503
01:09:52,740 --> 01:09:58,500
Region of Iraq asks soon there will be a
1504
01:09:56,400 --> 01:10:02,280
comprehensive negotiation we in Iraq in
1505
01:09:58,500 --> 01:10:04,560
the US on many issues mainly to
1506
01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:06,740
negotiate staying or withdrawing
1507
01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:09,660
militarily from Iraq what are your
1508
01:10:06,740 --> 01:10:12,060
reflections on this issue you're
1509
01:10:09,660 --> 01:10:13,920
absolutely right I am NOT going I am not
1510
01:10:12,060 --> 01:10:15,960
qualified to address that issue I
1511
01:10:13,920 --> 01:10:17,010
probably am not qualified to address
1512
01:10:15,960 --> 01:10:19,260
several issues that I've already
1513
01:10:17,010 --> 01:10:22,320
addressed but I'm going to take a pass
1514
01:10:19,260 --> 01:10:24,240
on that I was afraid of that but many of
1515
01:10:22,320 --> 01:10:29,550
my associates were begging me to ask you
1516
01:10:24,240 --> 01:10:32,220
that question which isn't I think if
1517
01:10:29,550 --> 01:10:34,710
you're talking about I think they'll be
1518
01:10:32,220 --> 01:10:37,110
I think that there's a possibility that
1519
01:10:34,710 --> 01:10:39,210
US troops will be withdrawn before the
1520
01:10:37,110 --> 01:10:42,780
election out of Afghanistan I haven't
1521
01:10:39,210 --> 01:10:47,039
given any I really haven't focused on
1522
01:10:42,780 --> 01:10:49,199
or read anything on the possibility of
1523
01:10:47,039 --> 01:10:51,809
US troops being pulled out of Iraq I
1524
01:10:49,199 --> 01:10:55,020
tend to believe not I think Afghanistan
1525
01:10:51,809 --> 01:10:56,429
certainly is is is it's a much clearer
1526
01:10:55,020 --> 01:10:57,900
possibility you know much more
1527
01:10:56,429 --> 01:11:02,250
definitive possibility if I could use
1528
01:10:57,900 --> 01:11:03,840
those two words together we have several
1529
01:11:02,250 --> 01:11:07,559
questions coming up of course the closer
1530
01:11:03,840 --> 01:11:10,050
we get to the end more in my experience
1531
01:11:07,559 --> 01:11:12,840
will get but Mara Richard of the United
1532
01:11:10,050 --> 01:11:15,179
States is asking you there is quite a
1533
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:16,739
bit of discussion about Trump recusing
1534
01:11:15,179 --> 01:11:18,570
have a peaceful transition of power if I
1535
01:11:16,739 --> 01:11:25,309
winced what do we need to do and sure we
1536
01:11:18,570 --> 01:11:27,809
aren't faced with this scenario I look
1537
01:11:25,309 --> 01:11:32,670
yes it's a question that comes up
1538
01:11:27,809 --> 01:11:35,520
I think his language if he loses in the
1539
01:11:32,670 --> 01:11:37,320
you know in the days right after will be
1540
01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:39,179
tough and could very he could very well
1541
01:11:37,320 --> 01:11:42,750
raise this but I would like to believe
1542
01:11:39,179 --> 01:11:45,929
and I do believe that most of the
1543
01:11:42,750 --> 01:11:46,619
Republican Party will not let that
1544
01:11:45,929 --> 01:11:49,949
happen
1545
01:11:46,619 --> 01:11:51,869
even those Republicans who today and the
1546
01:11:49,949 --> 01:11:53,820
party today is Trump's party it's not
1547
01:11:51,869 --> 01:11:56,369
the Republican Party even those
1548
01:11:53,820 --> 01:12:00,000
Republicans today should he or when he
1549
01:11:56,369 --> 01:12:03,690
loses you will see most of them run away
1550
01:12:00,000 --> 01:12:06,599
from him so quickly that they will try
1551
01:12:03,690 --> 01:12:09,059
to let or try to push everybody to
1552
01:12:06,599 --> 01:12:10,829
forget how much they have supported and
1553
01:12:09,059 --> 01:12:11,639
endorsed and allowed him to do what he's
1554
01:12:10,829 --> 01:12:18,719
doing now
1555
01:12:11,639 --> 01:12:23,340
so I do not believe that that will be a
1556
01:12:18,719 --> 01:12:25,650
very very serious issue post-election no
1557
01:12:23,340 --> 01:12:27,300
matter what he says 24 48 or 72 hours
1558
01:12:25,650 --> 01:12:32,130
after I think the Republican Party the
1559
01:12:27,300 --> 01:12:33,179
Republican Party establishment will will
1560
01:12:32,130 --> 01:12:35,309
not let that happen
1561
01:12:33,179 --> 01:12:36,989
I would like to think that maybe I'm a
1562
01:12:35,309 --> 01:12:38,789
dreamer but I would I would certainly
1563
01:12:36,989 --> 01:12:44,039
hope that that's you know that that's
1564
01:12:38,789 --> 01:12:48,300
the case one second I think that Trump
1565
01:12:44,039 --> 01:12:51,210
himself will do everything to throw cold
1566
01:12:48,300 --> 01:12:53,519
water on that and to D legitimize a
1567
01:12:51,210 --> 01:12:56,580
Biden a Biden victory I have little
1568
01:12:53,519 --> 01:13:00,480
doubt about it but I don't think that
1569
01:12:56,580 --> 01:13:03,090
that that will become a widely held view
1570
01:13:00,480 --> 01:13:05,670
by the Republican political
1571
01:13:03,090 --> 01:13:08,850
establishment it could very well be a
1572
01:13:05,670 --> 01:13:13,680
widely held view by Trump's hardcore
1573
01:13:08,850 --> 01:13:15,750
supporters but I don't think that that
1574
01:13:13,680 --> 01:13:17,640
it would would happen look look just
1575
01:13:15,750 --> 01:13:19,500
what's been going on in the last week
1576
01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:24,770
here in the United States did you ever
1577
01:13:19,500 --> 01:13:27,600
think that a former Secretary of Defense
1578
01:13:24,770 --> 01:13:31,830
several former chairman of the Joint
1579
01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:34,020
Chiefs the current Secretary of Defense
1580
01:13:31,830 --> 01:13:36,630
belatedly but nevertheless would
1581
01:13:34,020 --> 01:13:38,850
publicly say what they're saying about
1582
01:13:36,630 --> 01:13:42,110
how Trump is you know as a threat to the
1583
01:13:38,850 --> 01:13:45,360
Constitution of the United States
1584
01:13:42,110 --> 01:13:47,160
someone that shrimp picked himself three
1585
01:13:45,360 --> 01:13:50,760
years ago to be his Secretary of Defense
1586
01:13:47,160 --> 01:13:53,550
who he said was such a great general so
1587
01:13:50,760 --> 01:13:57,420
I think that and that's only in the
1588
01:13:53,550 --> 01:14:01,890
Pentagon so I don't believe that there
1589
01:13:57,420 --> 01:14:05,220
could be a serious political disruption
1590
01:14:01,890 --> 01:14:07,380
in the event of a Biden victory so we
1591
01:14:05,220 --> 01:14:09,240
have another question from Hussein my
1592
01:14:07,380 --> 01:14:12,810
life from Iran and he'll be followed by
1593
01:14:09,240 --> 01:14:14,550
a question from Morocco and mr. Malik
1594
01:14:12,810 --> 01:14:16,110
says if I might ask another question
1595
01:14:14,550 --> 01:14:18,450
Iran according to president Trump
1596
01:14:16,110 --> 01:14:19,890
working closely with Democrats against
1597
01:14:18,450 --> 01:14:22,500
him do you think there will be a chance
1598
01:14:19,890 --> 01:14:28,890
for Iran and Trump to come to any terms
1599
01:14:22,500 --> 01:14:31,110
before the election I frankly don't
1600
01:14:28,890 --> 01:14:41,840
believe that that's possible with Trump
1601
01:14:31,110 --> 01:14:47,430
and I think because of current US policy
1602
01:14:41,840 --> 01:14:49,980
versus with Iran where both Pompeo is a
1603
01:14:47,430 --> 01:14:54,180
very very important player in that and
1604
01:14:49,980 --> 01:14:57,510
his views on Iran are very very tough I
1605
01:14:54,180 --> 01:14:59,550
do not believe that there will be any
1606
01:14:57,510 --> 01:15:01,980
sort of rapprochement other than a
1607
01:14:59,550 --> 01:15:04,530
lowering of tension between the United
1608
01:15:01,980 --> 01:15:07,490
States and Iran before the election or
1609
01:15:04,530 --> 01:15:10,229
by Trump frankly no I don't believe that
1610
01:15:07,490 --> 01:15:14,550
and I think
1611
01:15:10,229 --> 01:15:16,409
let's leave it at that i from an
1612
01:15:14,550 --> 01:15:20,249
American it's astonishing how many
1613
01:15:16,409 --> 01:15:23,519
people abroad how much people have
1614
01:15:20,249 --> 01:15:25,289
brought have the details of what's going
1615
01:15:23,519 --> 01:15:27,809
on the United States today here's some
1616
01:15:25,289 --> 01:15:31,739
say me Mohammed Asia Dean the office of
1617
01:15:27,809 --> 01:15:34,679
international law in Morocco and he says
1618
01:15:31,739 --> 01:15:36,630
the general attorney in Minnesota
1619
01:15:34,679 --> 01:15:38,519
declared yesterday that the charge was
1620
01:15:36,630 --> 01:15:40,920
upgraded to second-degree murder and
1621
01:15:38,519 --> 01:15:45,150
that the other three policemen were
1622
01:15:40,920 --> 01:15:46,650
charged and death of George Floyd is it
1623
01:15:45,150 --> 01:15:49,440
a turning point for democracy and human
1624
01:15:46,650 --> 01:15:51,719
rights in the United States what will be
1625
01:15:49,440 --> 01:15:55,110
the impact of this new evolution on the
1626
01:15:51,719 --> 01:15:56,489
US policy in the in the middle I think
1627
01:15:55,110 --> 01:15:58,800
I've messed this up what will the impact
1628
01:15:56,489 --> 01:16:03,420
of this new evolution on the US policy
1629
01:15:58,800 --> 01:16:06,360
in the Middle East region be look I
1630
01:16:03,420 --> 01:16:08,550
think something very transformative is
1631
01:16:06,360 --> 01:16:10,320
currently happening but I've also said
1632
01:16:08,550 --> 01:16:14,099
that in the past on several occasions so
1633
01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:16,979
I want to be careful but I think the one
1634
01:16:14,099 --> 01:16:19,739
new thing now in the protests that I see
1635
01:16:16,979 --> 01:16:26,099
and that we're all seeing and witnessing
1636
01:16:19,739 --> 01:16:29,190
is the protests are not solely within
1637
01:16:26,099 --> 01:16:35,940
the African American community that have
1638
01:16:29,190 --> 01:16:38,010
been the recipients of police murder for
1639
01:16:35,940 --> 01:16:40,590
many many years in very very different
1640
01:16:38,010 --> 01:16:44,010
states throughout the United States you
1641
01:16:40,590 --> 01:16:47,699
see in the streets peacefully you see in
1642
01:16:44,010 --> 01:16:51,659
the streets a very very diverse
1643
01:16:47,699 --> 01:16:54,119
community of white black brown even
1644
01:16:51,659 --> 01:16:55,979
Asian who are in the streets and I think
1645
01:16:54,119 --> 01:16:58,860
that's the positive the one positive
1646
01:16:55,979 --> 01:17:01,170
that one could point to in being
1647
01:16:58,860 --> 01:17:04,289
somewhat more optimistic about where
1648
01:17:01,170 --> 01:17:06,570
this is going as far as the development
1649
01:17:04,289 --> 01:17:08,159
here in the United States in its
1650
01:17:06,570 --> 01:17:11,880
relationship to its own communities
1651
01:17:08,159 --> 01:17:15,749
inside the United States but I am
1652
01:17:11,880 --> 01:17:17,099
hesitant to make a bold statement that
1653
01:17:15,749 --> 01:17:19,979
other things are going to be different
1654
01:17:17,099 --> 01:17:22,650
the u.s. is changing we have to wait and
1655
01:17:19,979 --> 01:17:24,060
see and see how you know whether this
1656
01:17:22,650 --> 01:17:26,670
could be sustained I think
1657
01:17:24,060 --> 01:17:31,100
happened what is happening right now is
1658
01:17:26,670 --> 01:17:34,140
something that gives me a very
1659
01:17:31,100 --> 01:17:36,450
significant degree of optimism on on
1660
01:17:34,140 --> 01:17:38,220
what's happening here in the United
1661
01:17:36,450 --> 01:17:39,930
States for the better and I think it
1662
01:17:38,220 --> 01:17:42,300
cuts across all different communities
1663
01:17:39,930 --> 01:17:44,520
people who support Trump people who
1664
01:17:42,300 --> 01:17:48,630
don't support Trump people who are
1665
01:17:44,520 --> 01:17:51,030
Republicans Democrats socialists are
1666
01:17:48,630 --> 01:17:57,800
charged conservatives the degree of
1667
01:17:51,030 --> 01:18:01,980
discussed at the reprehensible murder of
1668
01:17:57,800 --> 01:18:04,500
George Floyd in in in Minneapolis week
1669
01:18:01,980 --> 01:18:07,770
and a half ago he cuts across all
1670
01:18:04,500 --> 01:18:11,520
segments of the community and I think
1671
01:18:07,770 --> 01:18:15,090
that Trump is taking a very big risk in
1672
01:18:11,520 --> 01:18:17,160
thinking that he could have ninety
1673
01:18:15,090 --> 01:18:19,350
percent of America forget what happened
1674
01:18:17,160 --> 01:18:22,680
and focus on law noda
1675
01:18:19,350 --> 01:18:25,200
and picking up upside down I might add a
1676
01:18:22,680 --> 01:18:30,210
Bible in having a photo-op in front of a
1677
01:18:25,200 --> 01:18:32,100
church ah Laurie Halse burg wants to
1678
01:18:30,210 --> 01:18:34,620
know do you see any Republican leaders
1679
01:18:32,100 --> 01:18:37,740
pulling away from Trump which would pull
1680
01:18:34,620 --> 01:18:42,720
predilection away from Trump as she puts
1681
01:18:37,740 --> 01:18:46,370
it well there's been not yet while there
1682
01:18:42,720 --> 01:18:48,840
have been statements by various senators
1683
01:18:46,370 --> 01:18:53,250
expressing disgust and even some
1684
01:18:48,840 --> 01:18:55,320
criticism veiled criticism of Trump
1685
01:18:53,250 --> 01:18:57,470
pushing back peaceful protesters on
1686
01:18:55,320 --> 01:19:02,070
Monday you notice that he could walk
1687
01:18:57,470 --> 01:19:04,560
quote peacefully to a church I still
1688
01:19:02,070 --> 01:19:07,470
don't see the Republican establishment
1689
01:19:04,560 --> 01:19:10,290
at this time moving away from him I
1690
01:19:07,470 --> 01:19:12,810
think it's going to take a bit more time
1691
01:19:10,290 --> 01:19:19,670
if if indeed that happens so I would not
1692
01:19:12,810 --> 01:19:22,380
I would not build Biden's campaign on a
1693
01:19:19,670 --> 01:19:25,340
campaign that focuses on trying to bring
1694
01:19:22,380 --> 01:19:30,090
some of the Republican establishment
1695
01:19:25,340 --> 01:19:30,810
people away from Trump I don't think
1696
01:19:30,090 --> 01:19:33,030
we're there yet
1697
01:19:30,810 --> 01:19:37,470
but it's going to be actions that shrimp
1698
01:19:33,030 --> 01:19:39,540
cakes on his tweets or whatever that
1699
01:19:37,470 --> 01:19:41,970
will dictate whether more Republican
1700
01:19:39,540 --> 01:19:44,490
political leaders will begin to feel
1701
01:19:41,970 --> 01:19:45,270
uncomfortable publicly and begin moving
1702
01:19:44,490 --> 01:19:47,010
away from him
1703
01:19:45,270 --> 01:19:50,310
it's not anything that will be done on
1704
01:19:47,010 --> 01:19:52,250
the Democratic side it's outrageous
1705
01:19:50,310 --> 01:19:55,230
things that Trump may do in the future
1706
01:19:52,250 --> 01:19:57,120
that may push them away from Trump but
1707
01:19:55,230 --> 01:20:00,260
not necessarily towards Biden that I
1708
01:19:57,120 --> 01:20:03,330
don't think is going to happen I have an
1709
01:20:00,260 --> 01:20:05,850
intriguing question that has been heard
1710
01:20:03,330 --> 01:20:08,700
other places from Eric's al-kahf again
1711
01:20:05,850 --> 01:20:13,200
is Michelle Obama possible VP candidate
1712
01:20:08,700 --> 01:20:16,290
no okay so let me just ask the last
1713
01:20:13,200 --> 01:20:18,540
question here and that is a second as I
1714
01:20:16,290 --> 01:20:22,260
said no right away I also want you to
1715
01:20:18,540 --> 01:20:24,270
say I also just to put everything on the
1716
01:20:22,260 --> 01:20:24,750
table and to demonstrate that I'm an
1717
01:20:24,270 --> 01:20:31,760
honest guy
1718
01:20:24,750 --> 01:20:34,200
I also responded in on November 7th 2016
1719
01:20:31,760 --> 01:20:39,900
there's not a chance
1720
01:20:34,200 --> 01:20:42,390
that Trump could get elected all right
1721
01:20:39,900 --> 01:20:45,270
no the last question is as we've had
1722
01:20:42,390 --> 01:20:48,420
this discussion on so many issues and so
1723
01:20:45,270 --> 01:20:51,210
many questions dealing with this problem
1724
01:20:48,420 --> 01:20:52,620
or that problem there's a really there's
1725
01:20:51,210 --> 01:20:55,110
all of this really change the United
1726
01:20:52,620 --> 01:20:57,150
States if you're a foreign country at
1727
01:20:55,110 --> 01:20:58,410
many foreign countries represented if
1728
01:20:57,150 --> 01:21:01,220
you look at the Middle East if you're
1729
01:20:58,410 --> 01:21:05,510
from the Middle East or from Europe
1730
01:21:01,220 --> 01:21:10,590
after the election and whoever wins
1731
01:21:05,510 --> 01:21:13,650
moves in his direction is it going to
1732
01:21:10,590 --> 01:21:16,080
make any difference in the next four
1733
01:21:13,650 --> 01:21:17,730
years and is the United States gonna be
1734
01:21:16,080 --> 01:21:20,400
a different country at all as many
1735
01:21:17,730 --> 01:21:22,710
people seem to think weaker stronger
1736
01:21:20,400 --> 01:21:25,650
most people say weaker what's happening
1737
01:21:22,710 --> 01:21:27,500
mm-hmm look I think the starkest there
1738
01:21:25,650 --> 01:21:30,470
are a lot of differences between between
1739
01:21:27,500 --> 01:21:34,470
continued presidency of Trump versus a
1740
01:21:30,470 --> 01:21:37,170
President Biden but I think from a
1741
01:21:34,470 --> 01:21:39,120
foreign policy perspective of course
1742
01:21:37,170 --> 01:21:41,880
there that that is one area that there
1743
01:21:39,120 --> 01:21:44,490
will be a profound change from a
1744
01:21:41,880 --> 01:21:47,640
internal nationalistic view to a
1745
01:21:44,490 --> 01:21:50,910
globalist view the traditional Democrat
1746
01:21:47,640 --> 01:21:51,380
view of globalism is very much alive and
1747
01:21:50,910 --> 01:21:54,620
well
1748
01:21:51,380 --> 01:21:56,520
amongst both progressives as well as
1749
01:21:54,620 --> 01:21:58,380
traditionalists and moderates in the
1750
01:21:56,520 --> 01:22:02,970
Democratic Party and if there's one
1751
01:21:58,380 --> 01:22:05,580
issue in addition to empathy but if
1752
01:22:02,970 --> 01:22:09,300
there's one issue that will be starkly
1753
01:22:05,580 --> 01:22:11,010
different on a January 20th 2021 if
1754
01:22:09,300 --> 01:22:13,140
Biden is president it's the whole
1755
01:22:11,010 --> 01:22:16,230
globalist view I mean he's going to
1756
01:22:13,140 --> 01:22:19,350
return to he's going to try to return to
1757
01:22:16,230 --> 01:22:21,690
America's traditional role as leader of
1758
01:22:19,350 --> 01:22:24,120
the as leader of the free world whether
1759
01:22:21,690 --> 01:22:26,550
there is permanent damage to that goal
1760
01:22:24,120 --> 01:22:28,470
is something that should be asked not
1761
01:22:26,550 --> 01:22:32,580
whether it's going to yet he will try to
1762
01:22:28,470 --> 01:22:35,190
do it because he will try to do that so
1763
01:22:32,580 --> 01:22:37,770
as I said before I'm afraid this is our
1764
01:22:35,190 --> 01:22:40,860
last this was our last question on
1765
01:22:37,770 --> 01:22:42,060
behalf of us all one of the things
1766
01:22:40,860 --> 01:22:44,400
they're first for that marvelous
1767
01:22:42,060 --> 01:22:47,340
presentation and will we use to answer
1768
01:22:44,400 --> 01:22:50,910
so many questions on so many topics seem
1769
01:22:47,340 --> 01:22:53,160
it has more programs in the planning
1770
01:22:50,910 --> 01:22:55,140
stage for our upcoming summer our office
1771
01:22:53,160 --> 01:22:57,510
will be in touch with you as they emerge
1772
01:22:55,140 --> 01:23:00,270
until then thank you thank you thank you
1773
01:22:57,510 --> 01:23:03,270
again there first and our very best and
1774
01:23:00,270 --> 01:23:07,020
hope everyone takes care so that they
1775
01:23:03,270 --> 01:23:07,770
are not harmed by the coronavirus bye
1776
01:23:07,020 --> 01:23:12,440
for now
1777
01:23:07,770 --> 01:23:12,440
thank you very much take care thank you