By Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath
Estimating the impact of economic shocks on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of omitted variable bias and endogeneity. We use exogenous weather variation – as measured in satellite vegetation readings – as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries during 1983-1999, and find that economic growth is strongly negatively related to the incidence of civil conflict: a negative growth shock of 5 percentage points increases the likelihood of major civil conflicts by over one-half. This relationship is more robust than most other patterns highlighted in the existing literature. We use a new and more comprehensive dataset of civil conflict in the analysis.
Work in Progress
Published: Tuesday, April 01, 2003
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